Ukraine War Watch Thread

[wjfox]

I think if Putin orders a nuclear or chemical attack, his own circle will turn on him. They have their own interests to look after.

Putin has already used chemical weapons in Syria. And he's assassinated people with poisons and radioactive isotopes, even on British soil. We shouldn't underestimate what he's capable of.

[raklian]

I think if Putin orders a nuclear or chemical attack, his own circle will turn on him. They have their own interests to look after.

Putin has already used chemical weapons in Syria. And he's assassinated people with poisons and radioactive isotopes, even on British soil. We shouldn't underestimate what he's capable of.

I understand where you're coming from, but I think this situation is a bit different because Russia is now facing a far mightier NATO amassing forces on its border while declaring that if a fallout from a chemical or nuclear attack reaches NATO territory it's considered an attack on them. I do think those in Putin's circle aren't insane enough to invite that risk with open arms and would probably calculate it's far less riskier to forcibly remove Putin from power even it means risking their own lives and reputation in the process.

[andmar74]

[caltrek]

Advanced Russian Tech Has Been Captured By Ukrainian Army, Offering Military Secrets
by Tom Hale
March 24, 2022

https://www.iflscience.com/technology/a ... y-secrets/

Extract:

(IFL Science) An advanced Russian electronic warfare system has fallen into the hands of the Ukrainian army, a move that could help to reveal the secrets behind one of Russia’s most formidable pieces of military technology.

Ukraine Weapons Tracker posted an image on Twitter claiming to show a Krasukha-4 electronic warfare system that was captured by the Ukrainian Army just outside the capital of Kyiv in an area called Makariv. The advanced device appears to have been found separated from its truck mount, covered in sticks and tree branches as a rudimental form of camouflage.

The Krasukha-4 is a ground-based, electronic warfare system built by the Kremlin-owned KRET corporation. It’s capable of detecting and jamming radar on spy satellites, aircrafts, and drones. It can also block GPS, radio, and phone signals, leaving the enemies' communications in the dark.
…
Not only does the system block aerial radar systems from surveying the ground, but it can also cause autonomous drones to lose control and crash. It’s said to have a range of up to 300 kilometers (186 miles) and is so powerful it can even cause physical damage to communication equipment.

Keen to understand the secrets of this tech, the capture of the Krasukha-4 has reportedly caught the attention of NATO. It's suspected that the electronic warfare system is already being transported by road to a US Air Force base in Germany where it will be flown to the US for closer examination by military engineers, according to the Telegraph

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

[raklian]

I suppose their experience playing Call of Duty: Modern Warfare came in handy.

[andmar74]

Russia signals scaled-back war aims, Ukrainians advance near Kyiv

Moscow signalled on Friday it was scaling back its ambitions in Ukraine to focus on territory claimed by Russian-backed separatists as Ukrainian forces went on the offensive, recapturing towns on the outskirts of the capital Kyiv.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ukrain ... 022-03-25/

[andmar74]

Possibly, Russia will focus on defending Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.
If true, that's huge..

[andmar74]

[raklian]

By now, the Russians are getting the memo they're fighting against a sophisticated enemy and that this isn't Afghanistan or Syria.

[andmar74]

By now, the Russians are getting the memo they're fighting against a sophisticated enemy and that this isn't Afghanistan or Syria.

I can see the contours of Zelinskyy with victory gestures in the streets of Kyiv along with hundreds of thousands of people. Come on!

I know it's premature, but what a dream to be there in person! I don't live that far off..

[andmar74]

[Xyls]

Possibly, Russia will focus on defending Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.
If true, that's huge..

Russia is getting routed in Kyiv... and that offensive will likely collapse over the next week and withdrawals begin.

Russia is also getting pushed back towards Kherson from Mykolaiv. The Russians need to figure out if they intend to occupy this area quick as the Ukrainians will likely push on them. I would imagine they are going to try to defend the Luhansk-Crimea landbridge that they have near control over save Mariupol. I expect once Mariupol falls they will come to a peace agreement and call it a victory... they have a tight timeline to do this and if they delay once they get Mariupol over other stupid requests Ukraine will likely launch a full offensive and reclaim Kherson. Which would not give Crimea the water supply that Putin probably wants...

The longer this goes on the bigger the defeat this is going to be for Russia.

[andmar74]

[Xyls]

Oop:

Russian commander killed ‘deliberately’ by his own troops in Ukraine, Western officials say

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 44282.html

How long until the mutiny/coup begins?

[R8Z]

As a neutral guy and judging by multiple sources... it seems like the tide has turned on this war (or may I say "Special military operation"?).

[wjfox]

Ukraine war: Russia to focus on 'liberating' Donbass region as it says first phase of invasion mostly complete

Friday 25 March 2022 19:01, UK

Russia will focus on the "liberation" of Ukraine's eastern Donbass region after mostly completing the first phase of its military operation, Moscow's defence ministry has said.

It claimed that Russian-backed separatists are controlling 93% of Luhansk and 54% of Donetsk - the two areas that make up the Donbass.

"The main objectives of the first stage of the operation have generally been accomplished," said Sergei Rudskoi, head of the Russian General Staff's Main Operational Directorate.

"The combat potential of the armed forces of Ukraine has been considerably reduced, which makes it possible to focus our core efforts on achieving the main goal - the liberation of Donbass."

There are suspicions that Moscow may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... m-12574539

[caltrek]

Oop:

Russian commander killed ‘deliberately’ by his own troops in Ukraine, Western officials say

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 44282.html

How long until the mutiny/coup begins?

A lot of news sources are going with the initial story, including Politico:

https://www.politico.eu/article/russian ... wn-forces/

Introduction:

(Politico) LONDON — A Russian brigade commander has been killed by his own forces in another indication of boiling discontent among Russian forces deployed in and around Ukraine, Western officials said.

The colonel, commander of the 37th Motor Rifle Brigade, was run over by an armored vehicle and suffered grave injuries to both legs.

“The brigade commander was killed by his own troops, we believe, as a consequence of the scale of losses that have been taken by his brigade,” one official said. “We believe that he was killed by his own troops deliberately. We believe that he was run over by his own troops.”

The confirmation followed a Facebook post on Wednesday by prominent Ukrainian journalist and YouTuber Roman Tsimbalyuk, who said that troops had been angered by the 50 percent casualty rate suffered by the unit deployed to the Kyiv region. One soldier driving an armored vehicle deliberately ran over the commander, who was shown in video posts being taken on a stretcher for treatment to neighboring Belarus. He was later reported to have died.

The Western official also confirmed Ukrainian reports that a lieutenant general commanding the 49th Combined Arms Army had died in the fighting, making him the seventh Russian general to be killed in combat since the invasion began.

[Xyls]

Ukraine and Russia Closer to Ending War as Understanding Reached in Four Areas

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia ... as-1691755

First off...

"As is known, there is almost a consensus regarding such issues as NATO, disarmament, collective security and using Russian as official language in the technical infrastructure works during the ongoing process in Belarus," Erdogan added. "However, there is the issue of Crimea and Donbas, which is impossible for Ukraine to consent to."

Why in the f*ck would Ukraine agree to any disarmament at all? This would simply encourage another Russian attack/meddling in the mid to long term... If we are already in the war it is better to decisively deal with this now then allow it to fester again in the future...

"However, there is the issue of Crimea and Donbas, which is impossible for Ukraine to consent to."

If I was Zelenskyy I would drive a very hard bargain of Crimea and make it clear that you either get Crimea or some form of disarmament BUT NOT BOTH... Donbas however remains Ukrainian... If Putin isn't willing to do that, then as far as I'm concerned there should be no more negotiating as Russia doesn't have the position to be making these kinds of land grabs AND demilitarization.

Ukraine should agree to NO demilitarization ever.