Ukraine War Watch Thread

[caltrek]

Anybody knows if Biden is going to send the Attorney General to Afghanistan to help them prosecute those crimes committed by the SAS?
How many forensic teams is the EU sending to Afghanistan?
Or is it, again, that they are "war crimes" unless we or our cronies did it?
Yes, it feels great to see how our moral standards work.

If you have evidence of SAS war crimes, then by all means present it in the Afghanistan war thread. Alternatively, create a topic in the history forum on the subject. I would think the next logical step would be for the UK government to investigate those allegations.

I, for one, am tired of these "what about" arguments coming up in this thread. No reasonable analysis is possible if all trains of thought are interrupted in such fashion. I do agree that Biden does pick and choose his causes with at least one eye toward national interests, as opposed to genuine moral conviction.

[ibm9000]

I, for one, am tired of these "what about"

I disagree, it is not "what about", it is double-think. It is not about the analysis, I cannot understand how to blame somebody else for what you are doing yourself, or have been doing. I am not trying to start a new topic, but, here, accusing Russia of war crimes...
Yes, of course, and Ukraine and everybody else, just remember to point that out too, if not it may look like you are just interested in pointing out your finger at somebody.

I agree, neither Biden nor any other politician is going to stand for any moral conviction, do you think everybody around here keeps that in mind?

Again, the importance of counting the number of corpses.

Another reason why I cannot understand this, I would say one corpse is one too many. How many corpses are a good number?, an acceptable one?,
a reasonable one?, which one is the appropiate number of corpses? It depends on the cause?, again, your cause or mine?

(And now you have to define "tyrant", if US decides to invade a country, is that not a tyrant?, if UN disagrees? or who has to disagree, the invaded
country is not good enough, for whom? Evil is evil.)

[ibm9000]

Now, this looks like more like Philosophy, but I am still waiting for some "reliable" information about combats, the third phase. Even if I cannot quite agree with this "expert",

"Round one was a knockout for Ukraine. In round two, the Russians won on points," said Max Bergmann in his assessment of the war's opening phases.

the "knockout" was turning the Sea of Azov into a Russian lake.

Is Ukraine going to launch an offensive? Its capabilities are better than on day one?
"On points" seems to be working. Zelensky is expecting what exactly?
If Russia declare everything south from the Dniepr "Russia" (yes, for internal consumption) and Ukraine attacks, that's full mobilization, Russia is defending its territory.
What economy is going to endure better the situation? Again, what is Zelensky expecting? (Mind, I am not blaming him of anything -apart from being an idiot-).
This not Israel against the Arab countries, it's a war between two Arabs countries, with no Arab Legion around.
In a no war-no peace situation, who is going to be on top?

Zelensky:
Before the war, no negotiations. (You are going to be invaded, any other option? (Yes, it is black mail; yes, it is politics)
Russian tanks before Kiev, no negotiations. (You have been invaded).
The Sea of Azov a Russian lake, no negotiations.
Luhanks lost, no negotiations.

What is Zelensky expecting?
Yes, it is war, you force your enemy to do what you want -also known as a negotiated agreement-, that is how it works.

[Time_Traveller]

[weatheriscool]

Russia strikes south Ukraine city, presses attacks in east
Source: AP

By HANNA ARHIROVA and CARA ANNA

VINNYTSIA, Ukraine (AP) — Russian missiles hit industrial facilities at a strategic city in southern Ukraine Sunday as a funeral was held for a 4-year-old girl killed in an earlier deadly strike elsewhere in the country.

Liza, who had Down syndrome, was en route to see a speech therapist with her mother when a Russian missile struck the city of Vinnytsia in central Ukraine on Thursday. At least 24 people were killed, including Liza and two boys aged 7 and 8. More than 200 others were wounded, including Liza’s mother, who remains in an intensive care unit in grave condition.

“I didn’t know Liza, but no person can go through this with calm,” priest Vitalii Holoskevych said, bursting into tears as Liza’s body lay in a coffin with flowers and teddy bears in the 18th century Transfiguration Cathedral in Vinnytsia.

‘’We know that evil cannot win,’ he said, his voice trembling.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 03cf62ab88

[weatheriscool]

Zelenskiy fires Ukraine's spy chief and top state prosecutor
Source: The Guardian

Reuters
Sun 17 Jul 2022 18.03 EDT

SBU’s Ivan Bakanov and war crimes prosecutor Iryna Venediktova sacked after their officials found to be collaborating with Russia

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has fired the head of Ukraine’s powerful domestic security agency, the SBU, and the state prosecutor general, citing dozens of cases of collaboration with Russia by officials in their agencies.

Sunday’s abrupt sackings of SBU chief Ivan Bakanov, a childhood friend of Zelenskiy, and the prosecutor general, Iryna Venediktova, who played a key role in the prosecution of Russian war crimes, were announced in executive orders on the president’s website.

In a Telegram post, Zelenskiy said he had fired the top officials because it had come to light that many members of their agencies had collaborated with Russia, a problem that he said had touched other agencies as well.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... prosecutor

[caltrek]

Duma Pressed To Allow Ever Younger Russians Without Military Training To Fight In Ukraine
by Paul Goble
July 18, 2022

Introduction:

(Eurasia Review) Reflecting Moscow’s search for more soldiers to fight in Ukraine, the Duma is being pressed to adopt a law that will allow younger people and those without prior military training to sign on as volunteers, an arrangement that if approved will almost certainly lead to more Russian combat losses as soldiers without training are sent into battle.

Sergey Krivenko, head of the Citizen.Army.Law NGO says that these changes will make the army “wildly unprofessional and in fact little more than cannon fodder.” What the government should be doing, he argues, is increase the amount of training anyone being sent into combat is required to have received (ehorussia.com/new/node/26205).

“A professional soldier must know more than just how to pull the trigger,” the activist says. “He must understand what military crimes are, why civilians must not be killed and know the basics of international humanitarian law. Otherwise, what will happen is what we have seen in Bucha.”
This new plan is thus almost certain to lead to disasters in a war that has been characterized by them, Krivenko says; but of course, “a real professional would not have begun this war” or fought it in the way that the Putin regime has. Now, in order to avoid angering the population by declaration mobilization, it is taking a step that will make things worse.

The Russian army will get more men in uniform, but it won’t have the kind of well-trained soldiers who know how to obey the laws of war. Indeed, there is already an indication of what that can lead to not only in places like Bucha but everywhere Ramzan Kadyrov’s irregulars have been sent to fight.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/18072022 ... e-oped/

[weatheriscool]

Russia Accidentally Shoots Down Their Own $36M Su-34 Bomber, Ukraine Claims
Source: Newsweek

$36 million Russian Su-34 bomber was reportedly shot down by Russia's own forces over Ukraine's eastern Luhansk region, Ukrainian media outlets claimed on Monday.

The jet was reportedly downed near Alchevsk, a city in the Luhansk region—one of the areas where the war is currently focused. Alchevsk is currently under the occupation of Moscow-backed separatist forces.

Videos and images shared by the Strategic Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Telegram messaging app on Monday appear to show the charred remains of a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber.

In the video, the cameraman states that a Ukrainian plane was shot down, but an inscription on the military plane states that it is a jet belonging to Russia's Air Force, local news outlets said.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-shoots- ... ms-1725524

[caltrek]

^^^Assuming this story is correct, and others like it, the Russian Goliath might just yet manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[caltrek]

Russia’s Mass Kidnappings of Ukrainians are a Page Out of a Wartime Playbook – and Evidence of Genocide as Defined by the United Nations
by Alexander Hinton
July 20, 2022

Introduction:

(The Conversation) Following months of speculation, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed on July 13, 2022, that Russia had forcibly relocated between 900,000 to 1.6 million Ukrainians into Russia.

Blinken cited various sources, including eyewitness accounts and the Russian government, to confirm that Russia is removing Ukrainians from their country and making them pass through filtration camps, where some are detained and even disappear.

Approximately 260,000 of these Ukrainian deportees are children, including orphans and others separated from their parents.

Blinken, in addition to major human rights organizations, says the Russian deportations may be a war crime.

Russia acknowledges that it has moved Ukrainian adults and children out of the war-torn country, but has said the moves are “voluntary” and done for “humanitarian” reasons.

Read more here: https://theconversation.com/russias-m ... e-187065

[andmar74]

Is the west sacrificing Ukraine?

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/21/opin ... index.html

It seems that increasingly these days, the United States is letting Ukraine fight, valiantly, but is it with one hand tied behind its back?

[caltrek]

Ukraine and Russia Sign On to Deal to Reopen Grain Export Ports as War Rages On
July 22, 2022

Introduction:

(Reuters via The Indian Express) Russia and Ukraine signed a landmark deal on Friday to reopen Ukrainian Black Sea ports for grain exports, raising hopes that an international food crisis aggravated by the Russian invasion can be eased.

The accord crowned two months of talks brokered by the United Nations and Turkey which U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres said were aimed at restoring Ukrainian grain exports while easing Russian grain and fertilizer shipments despite tough Western sanctions on Moscow.

Guterres said the deal, signed in Istanbul, opens the way to significant volumes of commercial food exports from three key Ukrainian ports – Odesa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny.

“Today, there is a beacon on the Black Sea. A beacon of hope…, possibility…and relief in a world that needs it more than ever,” Guterres told the gathering.

But fighting raged on unabated in Ukraine’s east and, underlining the enmity and mistrust driving the worst conflict in Europe since World War Two, Russian and Ukrainian representatives declined to sit at the same table and avoided shaking hands at the ceremony. The display of the two countries’ flags was adjusted so that they were no longer next to one other.

Read more here: https://indianexpress.com/article/wor ... 8045568/

[weatheriscool]

Ukraine war: Explosions rock Ukrainian port hours after grain deal
Source: BBC

Several blasts hit the western city of Odessa early on Saturday morning. The cause of the explosions is unclear.

Under the terms of Friday's deal, Russia agreed not to target ports while grain shipments are in transit.

The UN had described the deal as "a beacon of hope" following months of conflict.

Oleksiy Honcharenko, a local MP, wrote on Telegram that there had been six explosions in the city and that its port had caught fire after the attack.

Read more: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62276392

[Xyls]

Ukrainians advance towards Kherson

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... dfbe2d7e20

Ukraine is confident that it will retake Kherson by September. The Russians are in an extremely poor position here. There are only two bridges crossing the Dniper river and Ukraine is consistently making them unusable with HIMAR systems to where the can't restock and reposition troops. There is a high likelihood that Russia will have to cede massive amounts of terrain or suffer massive losses to the Ukrainians here.

[Time_Traveller]

[ibm9000]

Ukraine is confident

Well, then, everything is good...

There are only two bridges

And, as everybody knows, the Russian engineers have no bridges at all, they never had...

consistently making them unusable

Like... everyday? That is a lot of ammo...

high likelihood that Russia will have to

This sounds like a fairy-tale too, let's see in... October.

or suffer massive losses

Not like the Ukrainians, they will suffer no casualties...


Confident language by a general is not usually regarded as evidence of competency. J. E. Johnston.

[ibm9000]

Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) released an urgent message on July 23 calling on civilians in occupied Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast, and the surrounding areas to provide details on Russians and their movements in Enerhodar. The GUR report specifically asked residents for addresses and geolocated coordinates of Russian forces’ housing and deployment points, Russian ground lines of communication, residences of local occupation authorities, and the biographical details including names, addresses, and places of employment of all Russian collaborators and sympathizers.

ISW.

I may be wrong, but the GUR -not the GRU- is telling them to become enemy combatants?
And we are all pretty sure that those -supposed?- collaborators will have the maximum guaranties in their fair trial...
as usual.

[Certain Russian user]

Ukraine is confident that it will retake Kherson by September. The Russians are in an extremely poor position here. There are only two bridges crossing the Dniper river and Ukraine is consistently making them unusable with HIMAR systems to where the can't restock and reposition troops. There is a high likelihood that Russia will have to cede massive amounts of terrain or suffer massive losses to the Ukrainians here.

Yeah, that's exactly the reason I love to re-visit this thread from time to time...

Meanwhile, today Russian "musicians" completely took control of the Uglegorsk TPP. This was the difficult task since ukrops were well prepared for defence, and infrastructure had to be preserved (so, no missiles or artillery). Nevertheless, mission accomplished:



=== === ===

In general, this month after the liberation of Lysychansk was rather "calm". The daily missile strikes, as always, were bearing fruit: one can easily recruit another 10,000 conscripts to replace the dead, but this is not so easy to replace even 100 killed officers. Artillery did a great job, tactical successes here or there... and still, no large-scale offensive. The keyword of this month was "consolidation", rather even political than military: strengthening of new administrations in the liberated territories, rapid housing construction in Mariupol (winter is coming, and people need housing), preparation for accession referendums (so far, scheduled for september, but I'm not so sure). From what I learned from the media (never stated directly, but a lot of hints here and there, obvious for those reading "between the lines"), this "calm phase" should soon end.

Therefore, let's watch (as long as we don't have to participate).

[caltrek]

‘The Russians Have Nothing Equivalent’: How HIMARS Help Ukraine
by John Psaropoulos
July 26, 2022

Extract::

(Al Jazeera) The M142 HIMARS, the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems supplied to Ukraine by the United States, have become a symbol of Russian vulnerability.
…
Ukraine has reportedly damaged Russian ammunition depots, command posts and air defences using just eight HIMARS launchers, each of which has six launch tubes armed with the ordinary GMLRS (Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems) rockets with 80 to 120km (50- to 75-mile) range.
These went into service in Ukraine on June 25.

By July 16, Ukraine’s defence ministry said Kyiv had destroyed at least 30 logistics hubs deep behind enemy lines. A week later, US Pentagon sources were talking about 100 high-value targets having been hit.
…
For their part, Kremlin officials have denied Kyiv’s claims, countering that Russian forces have struck HIMARS ammunition depots in Ukraine.
…
Australian retired major-general Mick Ryan believed that HIMARS have “changed the battlefield calculus in the fight for Ukraine”, allowing Ukrainians to pursue what he calls the “strategy of corrosion” of Russian capabilities and morale, which brought them victory in the battle for Kyiv.

Read more here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7 ... p-ukraine

[Certain Russian user]

‘The Russians Have Nothing Equivalent’: How HIMARS Help Ukraine

Yes, another "wunderwaffe that will change everything" after Javelins, NLAWs, and Bayractars. Propaganda pattern is always the same... I still think the high-precision missile strikes against their headquarters are quite equivalent. One of the most successful and memorable was in Vinnitsa, where our missile visited a meeting of the Ukrainian Air Force top stuff with some Western emissaries (to discuss the new supplies, I suspect). All the participants were successfully denazified.

allowing Ukrainians to pursue what he calls the “strategy of corrosion” of Russian capabilities and morale...

So far, they're rather "corroding" themselves. Internet is full with video messages of this and that unit refusing to fight and "returning home". Here, again, an interesting pattern: units from Eastern Ukraine almost never defect. and units from Western Ukraine do it often and easily. That's understandable: ethnic Russians are toughest warriors, even when they are "Ukrainians".

...which brought them victory in the battle for Kyiv.

There was no any "battle for Kyiv". And if even was, this "battle" has ended in late march where was no any "HIMARS" around. Just saying...