Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Xyls]

Hey Joe:

[Xyls]

I find it funny that Fox News is even more delusional than the Russians themselves at this point...

[joe00uk]

Hey Joe:

Yeah, this is the main problem for the Russians - they're so much more casualty-averse than Westerners can imagine that they won't even send enough troops to achieve the goals of the war. That said, I'm not sure why this is being reported as if it's recent news - this has been the case ever since 24 February. Maybe that will change as a result of the Kharkiv disaster, but we'll see. The main change so far seems to be Russia's intensified efforts against the Ukrainian electrical grid, probably with the goal of disrupting their rail system which has given them mobility advantages in terms of transferring troops to and from the different frontlines. In any case, without a significant troop surge (which would come as a result of even partial mobilisation), it doesn't look like Russia will achieve most of their goals. That's not to say Ukraine will win some quick victory, which is also highly unlikely. As I said before, the most likely scenario in this case is a protracted stalemate over a number of years (maybe even 5-10) which slowly fades into 'frozen conflict' status, much like the Donbass War became after the Minsk agreements in 2015 until the 2022 invasion.

[Xyls]

So apparently now the Russian media is trying to say that Ukraine isn't assassinating Russian collaborators... Russia is doing it to catch Ukrainians?

Russia 'Staged Assassinations' of Its Installed Leaders to Catch Ukrainians

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-staged- ... ns-1742131

If I was a collaborator in Ukraine I would be shitting my pants right now at this nonsense... (should you believe it)

[Xyls]

[Xyls]

Looooooool seems even the senior leadership is changing their tune now...

[weatheriscool]

Russian units near Kherson negotiating surrender, Ukraine says
Source: The New Voice of Ukraine via Yahoo News

"They are attempting to negotiate conditions of laying down arms, under the norms of international humanitarian law,” said Humeniuk.

According to her, the commanders of these Russian units are looking to find ways to abandon their positions by any means available. This could include attempting to retreat to Russian back lines, or laying down their weapons.

“The degree of creaking resolve and demoralization is so high, even the commanders now realize they don’t have anywhere to go,” Humeniuk added.

She said that enemy troops are aware of the major Ukrainian victory in Kharkiv Oblast.

As their ability to cross the Dnipro River remains severely curtailed, Russian forces on the river’s western bank are forced to look for ways to extract themselves from the area – according to the spokesperson.

Read more: https://news.yahoo.com/russian-units-ne ... 00694.html

[caltrek]

Looooooool seems even the senior leadership is changing their tune now...

No change there at all. "What is ours is ours, what is yours is negotiable."

He can't help it if we westerners can't understand this perfectly reasonable position. /sarcasm

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

It's amazing how many non-russian speakers here can read russian.

Personally, I can neither read nor understand Russian. I can understand English language captioning, which of course does put me at the mercy of translators.

[Time_Traveller]

It's amazing how many non-russian speakers here can read russian.

Personally, I can neither read nor understand Russian. I can understand English language captioning, which of course does put me at the mercy of translators.

Same here Caltrek, it's that or learn the language.

[caltrek]

Hey Joe:

Yeah, this is the main problem for the Russians - they're so much more casualty-averse than Westerners can imagine that they won't even send enough troops to achieve the goals of the war. That said, I'm not sure why this is being reported as if it's recent news - this has been the case ever since 24 February. Maybe that will change as a result of the Kharkiv disaster, but we'll see. The main change so far seems to be Russia's intensified efforts against the Ukrainian electrical grid, probably with the goal of disrupting their rail system which has given them mobility advantages in terms of transferring troops to and from the different frontlines. In any case, without a significant troop surge (which would come as a result of even partial mobilisation), it doesn't look like Russia will achieve most of their goals. That's not to say Ukraine will win some quick victory, which is also highly unlikely. As I said before, the most likely scenario in this case is a protracted stalemate over a number of years (maybe even 5-10) which slowly fades into 'frozen conflict' status, much like the Donbass War became after the Minsk agreements in 2015 until the 2022 invasion.

@joe00uk:

Although I am not sure I agree with your conclusion, it is striking how your analysis parallels that of a Ukrainian military spokesperson:

Ukraine Situation Report: Kyiv Consolidates Gains After Routing Russia
by Howard Altman
September 12, 2022

Introduction:

(The Drive) Now 201 days into Russia’s full-on invasion, Ukraine’s military is starting to consolidate the sweeping advances it is making in both the Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts.

There have been overwhelming battlefield successes, with Ukraine recapturing about a Delaware's worth of territory once seized by Russians.

And even Russian-backed officials have admitted Moscow's forces were swamped by the Ukrainian blitzkrieg. It is an advance that has Ukraine forces pushing close to the border with Russia.

Yet Ukrainian leaders like Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov remain wary.

“A counteroffensive liberates territory and after that you have to control it and be ready to defend it,” Reznikov said in an interview with the Financial Times newspaper published on Monday. “Of course, we have to be worried, this war has worried us for years.”

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... ng-russia

[caltrek]

Meanwhile, part of the overall strategic blunder is how Russian mistakes continue to compromise future military security for that country:

Ukraine Just Captured One Of Russia’s Most Capable Aerial Electronic Warfare Pods
by Joseph Trevithick
September 12 , 2022

Introduction:

(The Drive) Ukrainian forces have been capturing significant amounts of Russian materiel of various kinds as they keep pushing eastward and southward as part of their ongoing counteroffensives. These spoils of war now reportedly include a relatively intact example of an RTU 518-PSM self-protection jamming pod. This pod is associated with the latest version of the larger Khibiny-U electronic warfare suite used on the Su-30SM Flanker-H, and its capture holds potentially great intelligence value.

Pictures of the front end of the pod in question began circulating on social media earlier today (see linked article). It was reportedly discovered among the wreckage of a Russian Su-30SM, with the serial number RF-81773 and bort number Red 62, that was shot down earlier in the conflict near the city of Izium (Izyum) in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. It would appear that Russian forces had made no serious attempt to locate what was left of the aircraft, and remove or destroy it to prevent their capture before the area was recently liberated.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... fare-pods

[raklian]

[erowind]

.

[caltrek]

It's amazing how many non-russian speakers here can read russian.

Personally, I can neither read nor understand Russian. I can understand English language captioning, which of course does put me at the mercy of translators.

Which in the case of a reputable news organization is fine. But how many of these posts are random twitter threads again? I don’t understand how those are taken seriously by so many people here. It’s so easy to lie and even if we’re not jumping to the most nefarious of conclusions social media personalities are incentivized to dramatize and lie because they get more views that way.

Although I am skeptical of news organizations too. The Iraq war is reason enough to think the government could be handing out scripts.

I don't mind being handed government scripts, as long as they are well translated.

Proper attribution of sources as in "according to ________(fill in the blank) government sources" would also be nice. As always, comparing and contrasting are also important functions. Yes, of course, a little skepticism is also healthy.

[caltrek]

Amnesty International Says As Ukraine Retakes Territory From Russia Securing Evidence Of Alleged War Crimes Is Crucial
September 13, 2022

Introduction:

(Eurasia Review) In recent days, Ukrainian forces have reportedly regained control of over 3,000 square kilometres of territory previously occupied by Russia, including Izyum and Kupiansk, two key towns in Kharkiv oblast.

Reacting to new evidence of alleged war crimes committed by Russian forces following military advances by Ukrainian forces retaking control of Russia-occupied territories, Marie Struthers, Amnesty International’s Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, said, “As Ukraine regains control of land occupied by Russian forces, it must prioritize securing evidence of their alleged war crimes. Gathering such evidence is extremely resource-intensive, and so we are calling on the international community to provide resources that will assist Ukraine’s efforts. All ongoing and future trials over alleged war crimes must meet fair trial standards.”

Struthers added that, “In what appears to be a response to Ukraine’s military gains, Russia has launched attacks that caused significant damage to critical civilian infrastructure, including a power plant strike that led to power and water outages and disrupted civilian activities. We remind Russia that deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure may amount to war crimes. These strikes must be investigated with a view to ensuring that anyone suspected of criminal responsibility is brought to justice.”

As Russian forces retreat, evidence of alleged war crimes committed by them and Russia-backed armed groups is emerging in the form of testimonies, video footage and photographs, said Amnesty International.

Amnesty International noted that on September 10, Ukrainian law enforcement agencies reported that police officers had exhumed the bodies of two men allegedly tortured and killed by Russian forces in Hrakove village, Kharkiv oblast, in March.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/13092022 ... -crucial/

[Time_Traveller]

Zelenskiy’s home town flooded after Russian missile strikes hit dam

Thu 15 Sep 2022 03.57 BST

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has voiced concerns for his home city of Kryvyi Rih after Russian missiles targeted a nearby dam, flooding its streets.

In a fresh video address released early on Thursday, the Ukrainian president said “everything is being done to eliminate the consequences of yet another vile Russian act”, referring to the targeting of a dam in Kryvyi Rih, on the Inhulets River 150km (93 miles) south-west of Dnipro, Ukraine.

City authorities are fighting to contain the damage to its water system after eight cruise missiles hit a water pumping station there in what Zelenskiy has called an attempt to flood the city, the largest in central Ukraine with an estimated pre-war population of 650,000.

A Russian flag lies on the ground near a destroyed Russian tank in the town of Izium in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region
Moscow’s local allies were told ‘Russia is here for ever’. Now they flee Ukraine

The strikes had caused “extensive flooding” in areas of the city, after the river rose an estimated 2.5 metres, the Institute for the Study of War said. The Russian attack was probably intended to damage Ukrainian pontoon bridges further downstream as part of efforts to disrupt the Kherson counteroffensive, it said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... es-hit-dam

[wjfox]

[wjfox]