2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[Bird]

He'll be poison for the Republican party in that election. Most signs seem to point to him falling out of favor pretty hard.
Either he'll win the nomination and lose, or he'll do what caltrek suggested above and run third-party, stealing a pile of votes from the actual nominee.
That's if he manages to escape his pile of legal troubles for 2 further years. I haven't been keeping up-to-date with that, but all that business with the classified documents seemed serious.
Failing the above, I'll be the 1,000,000th person to claim "Drumpf is finished!!!" and look like an idiot as he sails back into the White House in 2024.

[caltrek]

Mother Jones Writers Weigh-In Regarding Donald Trump Announcement

November 15 & 16, 2022

Abigail Weinberg:
Extract:

But when Trump laid out his plans for how to “dismantle the Deep State and restore the government by the people,” he went beyond the usual calls to “drain the swamp.”
Instead, he promised a series of anti-corruption measures.
Trump said he would push for a constitutional amendment imposing term limits on members of Congress; a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of political campaigns; and a ban on “members of Congress getting rich by trading stocks with insider information.” If you read the comments out of context, you might have thought you were hearing from Elizabeth Warren.
…
If the final minutes of Trump’s speech were a reliable predictor of the points he’ll be hammering home on the campaign trail, we just might see a more toned-down Trump, with a commonsense reform message that will appeal to more than just his sycophantic right-wing fans.
I’m not sure which is scarier.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/mojo-wire/ ... r-a-lago/

Russ Choma:
Introduction:

Donald Trump’s declaration that he’s running for president again in 2024 in some ways changes nothing—Trump has never really left campaign mode since his defeat and subsequent coup attempt, and he has continued to hold rallies and talk incessantly about the possibility of another term in the White House. But there are reasons that most presidential contenders don’t officially declare their candidacies so early in the race. Many presidential hopefuls actually go to outlandish lengths to avoid declaring themselves candidates.

There are, in fact, quite a few rules that come along with announcing an official bid—rules that require a lot of paperwork and restrict fundraising efforts. And perhaps most relevant to Trump, who is fending off legal actions against his business empire in New York, there are also rules that will require him to disclose his finances in great detail.

Here are three of the most significant consequences that Trump triggered when he made his latest campaign official:

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... ald-trump/

caltrek’s comment: One of the things I wonder about here is the extent to which Trump will even bother to follow these rules. Trump being Trump, I can see a lot of very creative and unexpected ways to either evade these constraints, or simply lie in his submitted reporting documents.

Inae Oh:
Introduction::

A Loser Runs Again

Donald J. Trump, the twice-impeached former president who fomented an unprecedented attack on the US Capitol and has been at the center of a seemingly never-ending flood of lawsuits, investigations, and allegations (which he’s denied) of sexual misconduct—including rape—has officially announced his bid to recapture the presidency.

Speaking from his Mar-a-Lago residence, the Palm Beach club where reams of top secret, classified documents were allegedly uncovered by the FBI, Trump entered to “God Bless the USA” as the crowd held up their phones.

“America’s comeback starts right now,” Trump said.

The announcement has been something of a foregone conclusion. Whole swaths of Republican voters still treat Trump as their de facto leader, including powerful GOP lawmakers who have embraced his election lies. Reports indicate Trump has radical plans, including a potential evisceration of the federal bureaucracy if he were to win again.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... uncement/

[caltrek]

GOP Arkansas Governor Says he’s ‘Very Seriously’ Considering 2024 Presidential Bid
by Shawna Mizelle
November 17, 2022

Introduction:

Washington CNN — Arkansas Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson is “very seriously” considering a 2024 presidential campaign, he told “CNN This Morning” on Thursday.

“Absolutely. I’m looking at it – looking at it very seriously. After the midterm elections, it’s more intense, and it’s an accelerated review, and after going to Iowa, I’m encouraged that a governor who’s actually solved problems, who has a conservative common sense approach, can draw support and can be a good alternative. So, I’m encouraged by it,” Hutchinson told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins.

Hutchinson also said that the midterm results weren’t a rejection of Republican values but “it was a rejection of specific candidates. They were not focused on the problems of Americans.” Hutchinson, whose gubernatorial term ends in January and is term-limited from seeking the office again, pointed to that month as a “decision point.”

The Republican governor’s comments come amid speculation about who – if anyone – will challenge former President Donald Trump, who formally announced his decision to launch another White House bid earlier this week. Trump’s campaign launch and his ability to lead the GOP has been met with internal strife and criticism following the losses of several Trump-endorsed election deniers during the midterm elections, and several notable Republicans – including former Vice President Mike Pence and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis – have hinted that they may challenge the once-undisputed Republican Party torch-bearer.

At a CNN town hall Wednesday night, Pence observed that candidates who talked about the future outshone those who focused more on “relitigating the past.”

Read more here: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/17/politic ... ndex.html

[caltrek]

I had a tough time deciding which thread to post this in. I settled on this thread on the grounds that Governor DeSantis seems to be emerging as an early favorite for obtaining the Republican party nomination for president.

Citing Orwell, Judge Blocks 'Positively Dystopian' Censorship Law Backed by DeSantis
by Jake Johnson
November 17, 2022

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) In an order that begins by quoting the famous opening line of George Orwell's dystopian novel 1984, a federal judge on Thursday blocked key provisions of a Florida censorship law that aimed to restrict how state university professors teach race, gender, and U.S. history.

"'It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen,' and the powers in charge of Florida's public university system have declared the state has unfettered authority to muzzle its professors in the name of 'freedom,'" Judge Mark Walker of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Florida, an Obama appointee, wrote in his scathing decision, which temporarily halts enforcement of parts of the law championed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis—a possible 2024 presidential candidate.

"To confront certain viewpoints that offend the powers that be, the state of Florida passed the so-called 'Stop WOKE Act in 2022—redubbed (in line with the state's doublespeak) the 'Individual Freedom Act,'" Walker continued. "The law officially bans professors from expressing disfavored viewpoints in university classrooms while permitting unfettered expression of the opposite viewpoints. Defendants argue that, under this act, professors enjoy 'academic freedom' so long as they express only those viewpoints of which the State approves. This is positively dystopian."

The Thursday decision, which concludes that the GOP law violates the First Amendment rights of public university faculty and students, marks the second time Walker has ruled against the "Stop WOKE Act" in recent months. In August, the judge blocked the part of the law pertaining to private businesses.

Adriana Novoa, a University of South Florida history professor and a plaintiff in the case, said in a statement that Walker's Thursday ruling is a win "for the institutions of this country."

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022 ... -desantis

[caltrek]

Trump Is Now In—and It Would Be Foolish to Count Him Out
by Thomas Gist and Julie Noeman
November 18, 2022

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) Is Donald Trump's 2024 bid for the White House finished just as it's started? That seems to be the new conventional wisdom. After last Tuesday's "red wave" failed to materialize—with Trump-endorsed candidates and other election deniers losing winnable seats—many experts have been predicting Trump's inevitable crash-and-burn.

Such forecasts haven't come from just Trump's favorite target of ridicule—the liberal "mainstream media." For example, a headline from the conservative New York Post stated, "Trump voters are 'done' with ex-president: 'He needs to disappear.'" GOP strategist Karl Rove declared that, "[w]ith no red wave, Trump is out at sea."

For many commentators, the 2022 midterms point unmistakably to Trump's waning grip on the Republican Party. But is Trump really toast? Much as we wish otherwise, there's reason for doubt. Here are five post-election talking points about Trump that we think miss the mark.

The electorate has moderated

Democrats have celebrated the midterms as a "win for democracy" following the defeat of many MAGA candidates. The votes don't lie: Democrats won key gubernatorial contests against Trump-backed candidates in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona, and crucial Senate seats in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona.

Conclusion:

For all the talk of "this time is different," Trump won't go down without a fight. If he can paint DeSantis as the preferred candidate of "the establishment"—among donors, pundits and insiders—that will only re-energize (and radicalize) his base. Even Trump's ongoing legal battles may be a boon, as he can smear them as witch hunts. Those tactics might not win a general election—or they might. Either way, don't count Trump out.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/views/202 ... t-him-out

caltrek’s comment: Portions of the article not cited above hint at something that makes Trump potentially dangerous. A lot of those elements of the so-called conservative “establishment” may very well end up preferring Trump in the general election should he manage to win the nomination. Much like what happened in 2016.

Polls may show DeSantis gaining a decisive advantage, but he may decide not to run given the threat posed by Trump to burn the house down. He may simply bide his time and preserve his prospect as the heir apparent for a 2028 race. At that point, Trump will be constitutionally barred from running again (assuming he wins in 2024). Even if he loses, his advanced age and growing legal problems may have finished him off by 2028.
I am not making any predictions, just painting different scenarios that sound plausible to me.

[Time_Traveller]

DeSantis Takes Massive Lead over Trump in 2024 Florida GOP Primary Poll

Governor Ron DeSantis leads former president Trump by 45 percentage points in a new poll of 2024 Florida Republican primary voters conducted in the wake of DeSantis’s landslide reelection.

Should DeSantis join Trump in announcing a 2024 bid, 66 percent of GOP voters in the Sunshine state would favor their governor, compared to 21 percent who remain loyal to the former president, according to a recent poll conducted by Sachs Media and presented in a newsletter produced by Florida Politics.

When asked who they trust more to be a good role model for young people, respondents chose DeSantis over Trump 89 percent to 4 percent. A significant 81 percent of participants said they have more faith in DeSantis to have a “moral foundation for choices.”

Over three quarters of respondents, 76 percent, believe DeSantis is more capable than Trump of uniting voters around a common cause. On diplomatic affairs, 68 percent of surveyed residents say DeSantis is more likely to be respected by other world leaders compared to 26 percent for Trump.

https://news.yahoo.com/desantis-leads-t ... 51699.html

Are these young people republicans?

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

2024 National Republican Primary:

Trump 46% (+18)
DeSantis 28%
Pence 7%
Cruz 3%
Haley 2%
Rubio 1%
Pompeo 1%
T. Scott 1%

.@Harvard-@HarrisPoll, 11/16-17https://t.co/VdFur9nghr
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 20, 2022

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

Musk Says He'd Back DeSantis for President If He Makes 2024 Run
Source: Bloomberg

Elon Musk said Friday night that he would support Ron DeSantis, the Republican governor of Florida, if he ran for president in 2024.

Musk, in a series of Twitter exchanges, elaborated somewhat on his political views, saying, “My preference for the 2024 presidency is someone sensible and centrist. I had hoped that would the case for the Biden administration, but have been disappointed so far.”

He called himself a “significant supporter of the Obama-Biden presidency and (reluctantly) voted for Biden over Trump.”

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ify%20wall

[weatheriscool]

Iowa Republicans threaten to move caucuses if Democrats change schedule
Source: The Guardian

Few in the US would suggest that the presidential election process should last even longer than it already does, but that is exactly what may happen if Republicans in Iowa follow through with a recent threat.

In an interview this week with NBC News, Iowa’s Republican party chair said he would be prepared to move the state’s caucuses – the process Iowa uses to identify its preferred presidential candidate – “to Halloween” should Democrats shake up their primary schedule.

Iowa has long been the first state in the nation to cast its vote in the Republican and Democratic presidential primary processes, but Democrats are exploring the idea of holding their first ballot elsewhere in 2024.

Clamor has been growing in the party for a different state, with a population more representative of the US as a whole, to be given the first go, with Democratic officials in Michigan, in particular, pushing for the state to be moved up in the primary calendar.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... -democrats

[Yuli Ban]

@Wjfox

We're almost there

[peekpok]

Pretty funny that DeSantis is being seen as the sane/moderate option for the right. Has Trump finally made his bed with too many toxic and crazy people that he is no longer politically viable?

[caltrek]

I think the DeSantis v.s. Trump primary that may be developing is a kind of proxy fight between the populist (and somewhat lunatic) right, and the more establishment oriented right. Trump and his populists are trying to hold the Republican party hostage. DeSantis may be willing to lead the fight to free the Republican party from its more populist fringe groups. Mind you, DeSantis seems quite willing to engage in all sorts of extreme political gamesmanship to appeal to the crazies, just in a way that is more palatable to centrist independents and big money donors. In the past, Trump has been able to recruit his share of big money donor funds, but they may be growing tired of his visibly erratic and destabilizing ways.

[caltrek]

Part of the “establishment” that may be growing tired of Trump is the judiciary. By design, they are supposed to act as a check on presidential power and on the power of aspiring demagogues.

If for no other reason than to protect their own authority and power.

Legal Experts Explain How Recent Court Rulings Suggest a Grim Outcome for
Trump
by Meaghan Ellis
November 29, 2022

Introduction:

(Alternet) The latest flurry of court rulings striking down former President Donald Trump's claims of executive privilege might suggest the walls are closing in on his legal team as the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and special Georgia grand jury investigations progress.

According to The Guardian, a number of legal experts have weighed in with their perspectives on what the latest rulings could mean for Trump and how it is becoming more difficult for him to avoid testifying.

Speaking to the news outlet, former DOJ prosecutor Michael Zeldin said, "Trump’s multipronged efforts to keep former advisers from testifying or providing documents to federal and state grand juries, as well as the January 6 committee, has met with repeated failure as judge after judge has rejected his legal arguments."

He added, “Obtaining this testimony is a critical step, perhaps the last step, before state and federal prosecutors determine whether the former president should be indicted … It allows prosecutors for the first time to question these witnesses about their direct conversations with the former president.”

Barbara McQuade, a former U.S. prosecutor in eastern Michigan, also shared a similar opinions.

Read more here: https://www.alternet.org/2022/11/trump-doj-case/

caltrek’s comment: It is rather ridiculous for Trump to claim executive privilege. He is no longer the executive. Meaning that it is up to Biden to evoke executive privilege in most circumstances. In turn, Biden can delegate authority in such manners to the Attorney General, who in federal cases are the executive branch when it comes to enforcement of the law. Interpretation is part of enforcement. So, if the Attorney General (or designated special counsel) determines that Trump has no executive privilege claim, the courts may very well be disposed to agree.

[caltrek]

Ann Coulter Doubles Down on Republicans to Abandon Donald Trump
by Alex Henderson
November 28, 2022

Introduction:

(Alternet) For months, far-right author Ann Coulter has been saying that the Republican Party needs to abandon former President Donald Trump and look to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for the 2024 election. And with Trump having officially announced that he is seeking the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, Coulter is doubling down on her assertion that Trump has become a major liability for the GOP.

Coulter isn’t the only well-known Republican who is hoping that Trump won’t be the GOP’s next presidential nominee. Others include Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, former U.S. Attorney General Bill Barr, Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah and media mogul Rupert Murdoch.

During a late November discussion on SubStack, Coulter argued, “No, don’t tell me, ‘Oh, you’re voting for Mitch McConnell or Romney if you’re for DeSantis.’ No, DeSantis is the true right-winger. Trump is the j*****s RINO.”

Coulter, during the conversation, pushed back against the view that Trump maintains a firm grip on the Republican Party even after its many disappointments in the 2022 midterms — which found a long list of Trump-backed MAGA candidates losing to Democrats.

“He is so done,” Coulter remarked. “He is on his last legs…. There are so few Trump diehards…. Trump won’t be the nominee.”

Read more here: https://www.alternet.org/2022/11/donal ... -so-done/

[caltrek]

The 2024 Senate Map is Terrifying for Democrats. That’s One Reason Georgia’s Runoff Matters.
by Andrew Prokop
November , 2022

Introduction:

(Vox) Democrats prevailed in this year’s Senate elections — but that was the easy part.

The hard part is coming in 2024, when the party faces a starkly unfavorable map that could put them in a deep Senate hole for some time if things go even somewhat poorly.

So even though next week’s runoff pitting Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) against Herschel Walker (R) won’t determine next year’s Senate majority, because Democrats have already won it, its outcome will have significant implications for how well-positioned the party is in its next very challenging Senate cycle.

Currently, just three Democratic senators represent states Donald Trump won in 2020, and they’re all up for reelection in 2024. These are Joe Manchin (D-WV), Jon Tester (D-MT), and Sherrod Brown (D-OH), though only Brown has confirmed he’s running again. These are all very red states, and winning them in a presidential year will be quite difficult for Democrats.

But the vulnerabilities go deeper. The only remotely close states in the presidential contest where Republicans are defending seats are Florida and Texas — two states where Democrats keep coming up short of late. Democrats are also defending seats in five states Joe Biden very narrowly won in 2020. These seats are held by Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), and Debbie Stabenow (D-MI).

Read more here: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politic ... -2024-map

[peekpok]

caltrek’s comment: It is rather ridiculous for Trump to claim executive privilege. He is no longer the executive. Meaning that it is up to Biden to evoke executive privilege in most circumstances. In turn, Biden can delegate authority in such manners to the Attorney General, who in federal cases are the executive branch when it comes to enforcement of the law. Interpretation is part of enforcement. So, if the Attorney General (or designated special counsel) determines that Trump has no executive privilege claim, the courts may very well be disposed to agree.

Of course nearly every legal argument Trump makes has been absurd for the past 6 years. His strategy in court is similar to a lot of career criminals: muddy the waters as much as possible, make every conceivable defense no matter how viable, and tie up the court system with red tape for as long as humanly possible. The fact that he is a former president just makes it all the more effective.

That said, I have completely lost faith that he will ever be charged with a crime. I don't know what the holdup is. Either he has an excellent network of fall guys (which has been true a lot in the past), somehow even after all this time there is no good evidence, or perhaps the justice department is just too scared to bring a case and lose.

[caltrek]

caltrek’s comment: It is rather ridiculous for Trump to claim executive privilege. He is no longer the executive. Meaning that it is up to Biden to evoke executive privilege in most circumstances. In turn, Biden can delegate authority in such manners to the Attorney General, who in federal cases are the executive branch when it comes to enforcement of the law. Interpretation is part of enforcement. So, if the Attorney General (or designated special counsel) determines that Trump has no executive privilege claim, the courts may very well be disposed to agree.

Of course nearly every legal argument Trump makes has been absurd for the past 6 years. His strategy in court is similar to a lot of career criminals: muddy the waters as much as possible, make every conceivable defense no matter how viable, and tie up the court system with red tape for as long as humanly possible. The fact that he is a former president just makes it all the more effective.

Agreed.

That said, I have completely lost faith that he will ever be charged with a crime. I don't know what the holdup is. Either he has an excellent network of fall guys (which has been true a lot in the past), somehow even after all this time there is no good evidence, or perhaps the justice department is just too scared to bring a case and lose.

Actually, I think that you already answered the question of "what the holdup is." One thing that Trump has that even a lot of criminals lack is the ability to hire battalions of attorneys to argue his absurd lines in court. One aspect of being even just a presidential candidate is tapping into campaign contributions to further tie up the courts and try to gain some leverage over the justice department, and over even states such as Georgia. Yes, having loyalists willing and able to take the fall also helps his cause.