2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[firestar464]

Jesus relax it's not going to be that bad. 51 R 50 Dem at worst

[wjfox]

Harris widens lead over Trump to 4 points in national poll

by Sarah Fortinsky - 10/28/24

Vice President Harris regained her 4-point lead over former President Trump in a new national survey from ABC News and Ipsos.

Harris leads Trump by 4 points among likely voters nationally, 51 percent to 47 percent, in the survey conducted Oct. 18-22 and released Sunday.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... al-survey/

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

I doubt it but weirder things have happen. I don't trust the polls....The early vote supports rust belt being favorable and sunbelt being hostile...

[caltrek]

Police Say Fires Set at Ballot Boxes in Oregon and Washington are Connected
by Gene Johnson
October 28, 2024

Introduction:

(ABC) PORTLAND, Ore. -- Police said Monday that a “suspect vehicle” has been identified in connection with incendiary devices that set fires to ballot drop boxes in Oregon and Washington state.

Surveillance images captured a Volvo stopping at a drop box in Portland, Oregon, just before security personnel nearby discovered a fire inside the box on Monday, Portland Police Bureau spokesman Mike Benner told a news conference.

That fire damaged three ballots inside, while officials say a fire at a drop box in nearby Vancouver, Washington, early Monday destroyed hundreds of ballots. The devices were attached to the outside of the boxes, police said.

Authorities said at a news conference in Portland that enough material from the incendiary devices was recovered to show that the two fires Monday were connected — and that they were also connected to an Oct. 8 incident, when an incendiary device was placed at a different ballot drop box in Vancouver.

“Heartbreaking,” said Greg Kimsey, the longtime elected auditor in Clark County, Washington, which includes Vancouver. “It’s a direct attack on democracy.”

Read more here: https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/hu ... 115226154

[caltrek]

Here is a definite long shot. But hey, a fellow can dream…

What if Texas Goes Blue?
by Jeff Mayhugh
October 28, 2024

Introduction:

(The Hill) November is coming fast. Election Day is bearing down on us like a chore, and we must check off our list. While the focus is on battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, a rising swing state — Texas — could decide both the presidency and the Senate.

What if Texas goes blue? What if Kamla Harris wins the White House and Democrats win the Senate? Donald Trump and his supporters already refused to accept the results of an election where he won ruby red Texas; what do you think he and his supporters will say about an election where the Lone Star State turns left?

Texas has been trending blue for a decade due to a shift in business and population. From 2009 to 2021, more companies (117) moved to Texas than any other state, most of which came from deep blue California. As a result, Texas gained two additional congressional seats (moving from 36 to 38) after the 2020 census, while California lost two. The population shift has continued; from 2020 to 2021, Texas’s population grew more than any other state.

While Texas has gone red in every presidential election since 1980, the margin of victory has declined since 2012, going from 15.8 percent to 9.1 percent in 2016 and to 5.8 percent in 2020. Voter turnout from 2016 to 2020 increased in Texas by 25.8 percent, and Trump received more votes in 2020 than in 2016, but a smaller share. Meanwhile, Democrats’ share increased from 43.2 percent to 46.5 percent. Suggesting Republicans are not losing support but “that most new Texas voters are more likely to vote Democrat” makes sense because many of the new voters came from California.

It’s not just the presidential race that could hang on Texas; it could be the Senate, too. In 2018, Ted Cruz narrowly defeated Beto O’Rourke by 220,000 votes to keep his Senate seat. Currently, Cruz is in a tight race with Colin Allred. Allred is out-fundraising Cruz, and it has Cruz worried. He appeared recently on Sean Hannity, saying, “I’m getting pounded every day. We had a poll that came out yesterday — showed it is a one-point race. And we’re getting viciously outspent.”

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politic ... da&ei=45

[weatheriscool]

We've passed the 46,220,922 total early votes from 2012:

2024 Total Early Votes: 46,250,480 • In-Person Early Votes: 23,664,988 • Mail Ballots Returned: 22,530,043 • Last updated: Oct 28, 2024 @ 6:05pm Eastern Time

It seems very likely we will pass 2016's 47,242,753 total early votes tomorrow.

[wjfox]

[wjfox]

Trump’s Puerto Rico fallout is ‘spreading like wildfire’ in Pennsylvania

10/28/2024 06:39 PM EDT

Donald Trump has a serious Puerto Rico problem — in Pennsylvania.

Many Puerto Rican voters in the state are furious about racist and demeaning comments delivered at a Trump rally. Some say their dismay is giving Kamala Harris a new opening to win over the state’s Latino voters, particularly nearly half a million Pennsylvanians of Puerto Rican descent.

Evidence of the backlash was immediate on Monday: A nonpartisan Puerto Rican group drafted a letter urging its members to oppose Trump on election day. Other Puerto Rican voters were lighting up WhatsApp chats with reactions to the vulgar display and raising it in morning conversations at their bodegas. Some are planning to protest Trump’s rally Tuesday in Allentown, a majority-Latino city with one of the largest Puerto Rican populations in the state.

And the arena Trump is speaking at is located in the middle of the city’s Puerto Rican neighborhood.

“It’s spreading like wildfire through the community,” said Norberto Dominguez, a precinct captain with the local Democratic party in Allentown, who noted his own family is half Republican and half Democratic voters.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/2 ... t-00185935

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[spryfusion]

.

[wjfox]

[wjfox]

wjfox: How reputable is the AtlasIntel polling company?

ChatGPT: AtlasIntel, also known as Atlas, is a relatively new player in the polling industry. Founded in 2018, it has gained attention for its accurate polling in certain elections, particularly in Latin America and the U.S. However, it has mixed reviews when it comes to reputation and reliability:

Track Record: AtlasIntel has shown success in some cases, such as predicting close outcomes in Brazil and correctly calling the 2020 U.S. presidential election in some swing states. Yet, it has also faced criticism for occasional large polling errors, especially in markets where it has less experience.

Methodology: AtlasIntel primarily uses online surveys, which can introduce selection bias since these polls rely on respondents with internet access. The company attempts to mitigate this with demographic weighting, but some experts argue that their sampling methods lack transparency and rigor compared to larger polling firms.

Transparency: AtlasIntel has been criticized for limited methodological transparency, making it harder for analysts to fully assess the reliability of its results. For a polling firm to build trust, it generally needs to offer more detailed insights into its sampling techniques, weighting, and demographic adjustments.

Reputation in the Industry: While AtlasIntel has gained traction and a following, it remains less established and trusted than firms like Ipsos, YouGov, or Gallup. It’s often seen as a "second-tier" pollster due to its shorter track record and less robust methodologies.

In summary, AtlasIntel has demonstrated some promising successes but also exhibits limitations in methodology and transparency. It is generally treated with caution by analysts and considered less reliable than the top polling firms.

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

This is arizona this election compared to 2020. Make up your own mind when looking at it but you know what I think.

[wjfox]

(Its fucking over!)

No it f*cking isn't. Stop catastrophising.

[Ozzie guy]

I really do buy the betting odds as a good enough metric.
Right now it is 63.1% Republican vs 36.1% Democrat.

It's far from over, based on odds Republicans will probably win but 36.1% chance is high in reality. It's not some kind of situation where there is only 0.1% chance of winning or something. No one knows what will happen it just looks like one side is winning.

[firestar464]

NYT- My Fellow Americans, It's Time to Say Enough With Trump

https://archive.ph/vD7YD

Note that this is the dude who was basically responsible for Clarence Thomas. You know it's bad when he is now roasting the same court he had a hand in creating.

[firestar464]

Victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election may come down to LGBTQ+ voters.

https://theconversation.com/lgbtq-voter ... ion-239656