2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[firestar464]

for all humans

[Vakanai]

Yeesh!


Yeah, I know I said I called it happening when everyone else was ignoring this trend in lieu of continuing their "white = bad, nonwhite = good" narrative, but even I'm shocked by how massively more Latinos went for Trump. I wasn't expecting numbers like this for another decade. And remember, this is our fastest growing minority by far.

I didn't have a "white = bad, nonwhite = good" narrative, I just didn't think Latino men would so readily vote for someone who has clearly and plainly made it clear they're racist against Latino men...

[caltrek]

Perhaps the "white = bad, nonwhite = good" describes how some people perceived the arguments being put forth. It should have been made abundantly clear that this was not the argument. We lost something when we stopped talking about a rainbow coalition, a coalition that was by definition meant to include whites.

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

Bernie Moreno Defeats Sherrod Brown, Ohio’s Last Statewide-Elected Democrat
by Abby Vesoulis and Sarah Szilagy
November 5, 2024

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) Late Tuesday night, the Associated Press projected Ohio Republican Bernie Moreno defeated Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown—and with him, any sense that Ohio was still a swing state.

Brown, who served three terms, maintained an edge for most of his US Senate reelection bid against Moreno, a former luxury car dealership owner from Colombia. But in the end, a windfall of cash from national Republican groups boosted Moreno over the top. Just before midnight, Moreno lead Brown by 5 points.

It’s not surprising that a Republican would win a Senate seat in Ohio, but the fact that this particular Republican beat a well-liked incumbent suggests how much Ohio has changed in less than a decade.

As a Rust Belt state devastated by deindustrialization, automation, and in recent years, an epidemic of drug addiction, Ohio tends to gravitate toward candidates who are dutiful in their support for middle-class and working-class voters. But Moreno doesn’t have a pro-worker reputation: As we previously reported, he was found liable for withholding wages from employees and was sanctioned by a judge for disposing of documents relevant to that case. He additionally faced lawsuits from former employees who accused him of racial, gender, and age discrimination. More recently, he’s blocked voters from recording his events by using audio jammers.

Conclusion:

In the end, Brown’s legislative history and broad coalition of blue-collar devotees couldn’t propel him to a fourth term. In today’s Ohio, only Trump’s support mattered.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... democrat/

[caltrek]

However, there is also this more discouraging poll result:

A new Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense survey of Iowa likely voters finds 53% support former President Donald Trump and 43% support Vice President Kamala Harris for president in 2024. Three percent are undecided and 1% plan to vote for a third party. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Trump’s overall support increases to 54% and Harris to 45%.

Read more here: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/novem ... harris-43

Would the polls change that dramatically within a day of the one I posted.

Probably not that public opinion has changed that dramatically, but that one or both of the polls are in error.

Looks like the Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense survey regarding Iowa was closer to the mark:

Donald Trump (R) 916,211
55.9%

Kamala Harris (D) 700,248
42.7%

Robert Kennedy (Oth.) 12,981
0.8%

Other candidates 9,394
0.6%

Source: https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/iowa/

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

I saw it coming in the early data....The early vote was 8-9% further right compared to 2020 and I also seen the shift in hispanic turnout in southern texas and the data coming out of arizona and nevada made it obvious. I also kind of felt that this was also pumping up the republican margins in states like Florida...

What did I miss? I thought Philly and Detroit was having high turn out without realizing that the black vote was going 5-8% further right and the same hispanic realities of the south spreading into philly. This also affected Chicago and most of new england forcing the blue state democratic magins way down.

We can forget having any checks on Trump for the next 2 years. Califorina is also being affected by this...225-230 republican house and a 55 seat senate.

I didn't want it to happen but I realized that the polling showing the popular vote was very close and the close margins relined with the early data.

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

Why does one call a fascist "to congratulate (him)...on his victory?

[caltrek]

U.S. Senator Ted Cruz Defeats Democrat Colin Allred
by Matthew Choi and Jasper Scherer
November 5, 2024

Introduction:

(Texas Tribune) U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz easily defeated U.S. Rep. Colin Allred on Tuesday, defying another spirited and well-funded effort to turn Texas blue and preserving his status as a leading conservative voice in American politics.

"The results tonight, this decisive victory, should shake the Democrat establishment to its core," he said in a speech to supporters at his campaign watch party in downtown Houston.

The Associated Press called his victory after 10 p.m. as Cruz was leading by more than double digits.

Shortly after, Allred told his supporters at his election night party in Dallas that he had conceded to Cruz.

Read more here: https://www.texastribune.org/2024/11/0 ... ion-2024/

✓THE ASSOCIATED PRESS HAS PROJECTED A WINNER
An estimated 99% of votes have been counted, according to the Associated Press.

CANDIDATES VOTES PCT.
R ✓Ted Cruz (Incumbent) 5,965,699 53.2%
D Colin Allred 4,990,394 44.5
L Ted Brown 265,673 2.4

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

I honestly believe Biden would have done better up against Trump. Harris was always considered a joke and a califorina leftist freak....

Maybe he wouldn't have done as good as 2020 but I believe it would have been a race. Men aint going to vote for something like Harris and moderates aint going to vote for a radical or communist like Harris....Biden is convincing but in a weaker state but still far stronger then Harris.

[Yuli Ban]

I honestly believe Biden would have done better up against Trump. Harris was always considered a joke and a califorina leftist freak....

Maybe he wouldn't have done as good as 2020 but I believe it would have been a race. Men aint going to vote for something like Harris and moderates aint going to vote for a radical or communist like Harris....Biden is convincing but in a weaker state but still far stronger then Harris.

That's just it
Harris lost pretty much because she is a CALIFORNIAN leftist
The social-progressive status quo that actively says "We want more blacks, more gays, more trans people in video games and movies, meanwhile we will mock you for not even being able to make rent, it's capitalism's fault and capitalism sucks but we're only going to make ultra-milquetoast "misanthropic anticapitalist satire and commentary" instead of doing anything substantial" Almost aggressively failing to realize that all that social-progressive stuff comes FROM economic progressivism, you can't force the social aspects forth without the economic ones first. But somehow, by some freakish black magic, it's gotten to the point where people who DO care more about the economic side are seen as "brocialists" and "completely backwards"
You can care about social issues, that's never been the issue. It's just that ever since Trump's first term and COVID, ONLY the social issues seem to matter to the Democratic intelligentsia. They only pay lip service to the economic ones in order to have words to fall back on to say "We DO care about class and economic issues" with virtually nothing tangible to actually point to beyond vibes.

The economic-progressives like Bernie are still wildly popular, and indeed, it's plausible that this could lead to something explosive down the line if the pressure on the working class is pressed too tightly. No one wanted the status quo. That's what 2016 was all about. The issue is that the ""Left"" (i.e. Democrats, Labour/LibDems) did nothing with that because they're so arrogantly sure the status quo is right and good because it's the End of History and austerity is the way forward. That left only the right-populists to assume power, except they aren't actually that interested in changing things either.
So that's where we're at now.
Harris actually had something with Walz as well in that regard, but instead of highlighting him (i.e. "Bernie-Lite"), the whole media apparatus decided to focus on the black/brown woman making history in some relatively meaningless idpol category.

Could've been Bernie all along, but remember: "It's Her Turn!"

[caltrek]

Republican Tim Sheehy Wins Montana’s U.S. Senate Race
by Tom Lutey
November 5, 2024

Introduction:

(Montana Free Press) Republican Tim Sheehy has won Montana’s U.S. Senate race, unseating incumbent Democrat Jon Tester.

Tester, a three-term senator from Big Sandy conceded the race shortly after 6:30 a.m. Wednesday. Sheehy led by 43,000 votes, or a 53% vote share with more half Montana’s precincts fully counted.

“I called Tim Sheehy. I congratulated him on being the senator-elect for the state of Montana. And I told him, ‘Work hard. Keep Montana, the greatest state, in the greatest country in the world” Tester said.

The third-party candidates in the race, Libertarian Sid Daoud and Green candidate Robert Barb, each had about a 1% vote share. A brief thank you statement was posted by Sheehy’s official Facebook page at 3:27 a.m. His campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment Wednesday morning.

Read more here: https://montanafreepress.org/2024/11/0 ... -results/

[caltrek]

Republican Larry Hogan Loses to Democrat Angela Alsobrooks in Maryland Senate Race
by Cuneyt Dil
November 6, 2024

Introduction:

(Axios)Democrat Angela Alsobrooks, the Prince George's County executive who made control of the U.S. Senate front-and-center in her campaign, has defeated Republican Larry Hogan in the Maryland Senate race, per AP.

Why it matters: The blue state had an unusually pricey and competitive race thanks to Hogan, a well-liked former GOP governor who distanced himself from former President Trump.

• Alsobrooks will be Maryland's first Black senator.

The big picture: Alsobrooks campaigned on supporting abortion rights and defending Democrats' narrow Senate majority, positioning herself as a senator who would fight "MAGA extremists."

• Since 2019, she has led one of the most affluent majority Black counties in the U.S., a mix of suburbs bordering D.C. and rural land.

• Hogan came up short despite courting Democrats and independents by promising to "stop the partisan BS" in Congress.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/11/06/hogan ... ate-race

[raklian]

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

In Michigan Tom Barrett Wins 7th Congressional District Race
by Todd Spangler
November 6, 2024

Introduction:

(Detroit Free Press) Former state Sen. Tom Barrett flipped Michigan's competitive 7th Congressional District from blue to red, besting Democrat Curtis Hertel in Tuesday's election.

With an estimated 99% of the vote in, Barret had received 50% of the vote while Hertel trailed with 47%. That's based on unofficial results compiled by The Associated Press, which called the race just after 4 a.m. Wednesday. Come back to freep.com for updated results.

The race for the seat in the 7th District, which is anchored by Lansing but covers suburban and rural areas stretching out from the state capital, was considered one of the most competitive congressional contests in Michigan, if not nationally, headed into the election season. It was left open when Democratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Holly decided to run for the state's open U.S. Senate seat.

Four years ago, the vote in the district's confines broke by about 1-percentage-point for then-Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden over then-President Donald Trump on Biden's path to winning Michigan and the White House; four years before that, Trump won there by about 4 points over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton as he won the state. So in a close presidential election this year between Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris — and Slotkin , who was known for often doing better in elections than those at the top of the ticket from her party out of the contest — the seat was widely considered a tossup.

As of this weekend, it was one of the top 10 most expensive races in the country, with the website Open Secrets, which tracks political spending, showing outside groups had poured more than $27 million into the race, about $14.7 million of which has been spent toward electing Barrett.

Read more here: https://www.freep.com/story/news/polit ... 0431007/

[raklian]

Trump’s mass deportation plans would be costly. Here’s why

By Catherine E. Shoichet, CNN

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/19/politics ... index.html

Experts say any path the future Trump administration chooses will be complicated and costly, due to both the billions of dollars needed to fund mass deportation and the significant ripple effects that will hit the economy.

I doubt the Trump Administration will make any meaningful inroads to realizing their mass deportation inspirations, just like Trump's first term. Even a bulk of the Republicans will be averse to go along with the more extreme aspects of the plan. Why? It would hurt their cash cow - namely the businesses that rely on undocumented workers.