23rd January 2019

Electric vehicle sales to increase ten-fold by 2030

Electric vehicle (EV) sales will reach more than 20 million annually by the end of the next decade, according to a new analysis.

The research, by accounting firm Deloitte, shows worldwide EV adoption rising from two million units in 2018, to four million in 2020 and 12 million in 2025, before reaching 21 million in 2030.

Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will significantly outperform the rest of the EV market – accounting for 70% of total EV sales by 2030. Deloitte is predicting that by 2024, the cost to own a BEV will be on par with that of a petrol or diesel vehicle, which could boost demand further.

Deloitte’s analysis points to two factors in accelerating BEV uptake: growing consumer demand for greener vehicles, coupled with government policies that offer financial incentives while placing inner-city restrictions for traditional gasoline and diesel vehicles. While upfront purchasing costs of EVs remain the biggest barrier for consumers, the research reveals how, as technology improves, this and other consumer concerns will gradually ease over time.

"In 2018, we saw global EV sales surpass two million units for the first time; twice those sold in 2017," said Michael Woodward, UK automotive partner at Deloitte. "The cost of petrol and diesel vehicle ownership will converge with electric over the next five years. Supported by existing government subsidies and technology advances, this tipping point could be reached as early as 2021. From this point, cost will no longer be a barrier to purchase, and owning an EV will become a realistic, viable option for new buyers."

Growing demand for greener vehicles has seen the majority of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) announce their ambitions in the EV market and the emergence of various new entrants to the automotive market. However, Deloitte’s research suggests that the number of manufacturers is unsustainable.

"Whilst there is a distinct trend developing in the EV market, the story is not a clear-cut one," Woodward continues. "As manufacturers increase their capacity, our projections suggest that supply will vastly outweigh consumer demand by approximately 14 million units over the next decade. This gearing up of EV production is driving a wide ‘expectation gap’ and manufacturers, both incumbent and new entrants alike, will need to adapt towards this new competitive landscape.

"Those that can successfully build trust in their brand, ensure a positive customer experience from initial sale through to aftercare, and reflect consumer shifts towards the sharing economy in future business models will successfully navigate this. Equally, continual investment in engineering talent and the formation of partnerships with bespoke battery producers and third-party mechanic networks will also be important."

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