27th November 2024

China likely to reach peak coal by 2025

Optimism is rising about China's ability to peak its emissions from coal power, with a majority of surveyed experts now believing this goal can be achieved by 2025.

Air pollution from coal power in China. Credit: © Xiao Zhou / Dreamstime

China's energy transition is now on the verge of a pivotal moment, with signs of hope emerging amid ongoing challenges. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), in collaboration with the International Society for Energy Transition Studies (ISETS), has today published its annual report assessing the country's progress in 2024. Among the most notable findings is a growing consensus among experts that China is likely to peak its coal consumption by 2025, marking a critical milestone on its road to decarbonisation.

In a survey of 44 experts spanning climate and energy fields, 52% now believe that China will reach peak coal consumption by 2025 – a sharp increase from just 15% in 2022. Similarly, the proportion who think China's overall carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have either peaked already or will do so by 2025 has risen from 15% in 2022 to 44% in 2024. This growing optimism reflects a combination of phenomenal growth in renewable energy and targeted efforts to reduce fossil fuel investments in certain sectors.

"Achieving carbon neutrality in a rapidly growing economy like China is no easy feat, but the country's substantial efforts are starting to bear fruit," said the President of ISETS, Xunpeng Shi. "Clean energy industries have emerged as key drivers of economic growth. As China continues its transition, the benefits are becoming increasingly clear – expanded deployment of clean energy and ongoing industrial transformation promise even greater advantages. This progress is fuelling optimism about the future, as it accelerates decarbonisation and ensures long-term prosperity for all."

In addition to the survey, the report includes a series of findings on the state of China's emissions and clean tech development:

• China's overall CO2 emissions from January to December 2024 are expected to be flat or show only a small increase.

• Growth in both solar and wind power and, as a result, total non-fossil energy, has further accelerated, after their already rapid capacity expansion during 2023.

• Electric vehicle sales have continued to see impressive growth, exceeding 50% of all vehicle sales for three consecutive months in 2024.

• China made progress in controlling investments in new fossil fuel power generation and steelmaking capacity compared with 2023, and in reducing emissions from both steel and transportation.

Currently, China's official targets are to reach peak carbon emissions before 2030, and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. However, the report strikes a note of caution around this.

"Despite optimism around emissions and the renewable energy transition, there is still to date little clarity on China's emissions pathway, which leaves open the possibility of emissions increases until 2030 and very slow reductions after," said Lauri Myllyvirta, Lead Analyst at CREA. "This scenario would make meeting global climate targets all but impossible. In order to align with the Paris Agreement and its corresponding transition pathways, China will need to either speed up renewable energy deployment even further, or guide economic development in a less energy-intensive direction. China's upcoming nationally determined contributions (NDCs) will be essential for specifying and, ideally, firming up its ambition on reducing emissions over the next decade, after the emission peak."

Comments »

If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it: