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27th January 2025

Life expectancy in Gaza has almost halved

A new study further underscores the immense human cost of the Israel–Hamas war, with life expectancy in the Gaza Strip found to have plummeted since October 2023.

 

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Credit: Palestinian News & Information Agency (Wafa) in contract with APAimages, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

 

Life expectancy in the Gaza Strip has been reduced by nearly half (-46.3%) since the current war in the region began, according to new estimates published in medical journal The Lancet.

The study, by a team of international collaborators, found that life expectancy dropped from a pre-war average of 75.5 to just 40.5 years between October 2023 and September 2024. Men have experienced a higher decrease of -51.6% (from 73.6 years pre-war to 35.6 years). For women, the decrease has been -38.6% (77.4 years pre-war to 47.5 years).

Due to uncertainty in the available data, the authors calculated three scenarios: 

Low scenario – based on deaths for which complete identifying information was available, life expectancy is estimated to be 44.4 years.

Central scenario – based on the official count of fatalities from the Gaza Ministry of Health, excluding the estimated count of individuals reported missing or under the rubble, life expectancy is estimated to be 40.5 years.

High scenario – based on the official count of fatalities from the Gaza Ministry of Health (GHM), including the lower bound of the estimated count of individuals reported missing or under the rubble, life expectancy is estimated to be 36.1 years.

The authors caution that their "central" scenario estimate of 40.5 includes deaths for people with incomplete identification information and whose existence could not be cross-checked against the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) register. Since the estimate doesn't include individuals reported missing or under the rubble, it may still be an underestimation.

Additionally, the authors highlight that none of the three scenarios include the indirect effects of the war – such as lack of access to healthcare and malnutrition – on mortality. As of January 2025, the GHM has reported 47,000 fatalities and more than 10,000 individuals missing or under rubble, but the indirect deaths are likely to be multiple times higher, based on previous studies.

Furthermore, the long-term effects of toxic dust clouds from smoke, debris, and other pollutants released during the conflict could add another layer to this crisis. Similar to the health issues observed in New York after 9/11, exposure to these particulates may lead to a major uptick in respiratory illnesses, cancers, and other chronic conditions that linger for decades to come. Such environmental damage could result in hundreds of thousands of additional deaths over time, compounding the already devastating toll of the war.

Following a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas earlier this month, displaced Palestinians have now begun returning to the northern part of the Strip. However, the future of the region remains highly uncertain. US President Donald Trump – describing it as a "demolition site" – last week requested that Egypt and Jordan take in Palestinians from Gaza and suggested: "You're talking about probably a million and a half people, and we just clean out that whole thing".

Prior to the conflict, Gaza had been on track to reach a life expectancy of 80.4 for men and 83.6 for women by 2050. This now seems highly unlikely, given the immense challenges it will face in rebuilding its infrastructure, restoring healthcare systems, and addressing the long-term psychological and physical trauma endured by its population.

 

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