26th May 2013

China agrees to limit carbon emissions by 2016

In a significant move to address climate change, the world's biggest polluter has announced that it will impose a cap on carbon emissions by 2016.

China is responsible for a quarter of the world's man-made CO2. Since 2000, the country has seen an unprecedented rise in coal use, with new power plants being constructed seemingly every week. Beijing recently made the headlines for its shocking level of air pollution, up to 50 times the safe level recommended by the World Health Organisation. It is estimated that over 80 million people could die from lung disease in China by 2033. More importantly, over 99% of published, peer-reviewed climate studies agree that human industrial output of heat-trapping CO2 is now higher than Earth's natural ability to reabsorb, which could have potentially devastating consequences in the long term.

In order to address both a growing public health problem and soaring greenhouse gases, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has proposed a ceiling on carbon emissions, a plan it wants to start implementing from 2016. This will need approval from China's cabinet, the State Council, but the NDRC is said to be extremely influential, and the government as a whole appears increasingly committed to the environment. If adopted, the nation's "carbon intensity" – defined as CO2 per dollar of economic output – would decline around 40 per cent by 2020, compared to 2005 levels.

China's announcement is clearly a step in the right direction and will improve the dynamics of international negotiations. Professor Nicholas Stern, whose 2006 report is the single most influential document on climate change, had this to say: "This is very exciting news. Such an important move should encourage all countries, and particularly the other large emitters such as the United States, to take stronger action on climate change. And it improves the prospects for a strong international treaty being agreed at the United Nations climate change summit in 2015."

However, there is still a long way to go. The scale of the problem is truly colossal. To avoid plunging the world into an environmental catastrophe, it is estimated that over two-thirds of fossil fuels must remain in the ground by 2050, representing trillions of dollars in lost assets. Given the momentum already locked into the system, it is almost certain that we have passed the point of no return, with major disruption now inevitable. At some point, a WW2-scale mobilisation of resources and technology will be needed to address the issue – involving the deployment not just of clean energy but also carbon sequestration and geoengineering. A recent review of literature on the subject found that climate scientists are biased not toward "alarmism" (as often claimed by the mainstream media), but rather the reverse: toward cautious and conservative estimates.

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