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2010-2019 Contents 2010-2037 - At some point during this period, a devastating earthquake hits the west coast of the USA 2010 - Iran is on the brink of revolution | China becomes the largest energy consumer in the world | Localised renewable energy is widely available to consumers | Augmented Reality enters the mainstream | OLED screens are becoming widespread | Macular degeneration is now curable | World's first 100% compostable chip bags | Increased automation in retail environments | Space Shuttle fleet is retired 2011 - Humanitarian crisis in Somalia | Internet has a greater reach than television | Multi-touch surface computing is available to the mass market | Speech-to-speech translation available in mobile phones | Batteries that charge in seconds | 22 nanometre chips are in mass production | USB 3.0 is available | Consumer-level robotics are booming | Completion of the International Space Station | World's first commercial spaceport | China's Three Gorges Dam is fully operational 2012
- Economic growth remains sluggish in
many markets | London hosts the
Olympic Games | 2013 - Iran carries out its first nuclear test | 4G wireless communications | 3D technologies are widespread | India launches its second lunar exploration mission | James Webb telescope is launched 2014 - Personalised DNA sequencing for less than $100 | Internet "lifecasting" enters the mainstream | 16nm chips are in mass production | Robotic pack mules are entering military service | Maven probe arrives at Mars | Most phone calls are made via the Internet now | Brazil hosts the FIFA World Cup 2015-2019 - Virtual Reality makes a comeback 2015 - Worldwide PC use reaches 2bn | Nanotech water filters are widespread | The first climate change refugees | Artificial heart implants | New Horizons probe arrives at Pluto | Voyager I enters the heliopause 2016 - US military withdraws from Afghanistan | Orbital solar power | 5G wireless communications | A new generation of telescope observatories | Holographic versatile disc (HVD) replaces Blu-Ray | Bio-cameras matching human eye resolution | Rio de Janeiro hosts the Olympic Games 2017 - Enlargement of the EU | Crossrail opens in London | Electronic paper is widespread | Portable laser devices that seal wounds | Teleportation of simple molecules 2018 - The ITER experimental fusion reactor is switched on | Ubiquitous internet nodes connect appliances, vehicles, etc. | Robot insect spies are in military use | Consumer devices with 100 Gbit/s transfer speeds | Anti-fat drug is available | The new World Trade Center is complete 2019 - Computers break the exaflop barrier | Automated freight transport | The Aral Sea disappears from the map | Global oil demand exceeds 100 million barrels per day
2000-2009 | 2010-2019 | 2020-2029 | 2030-2039 | 2040-2049 | 2050-2059 | 2060-2069 | 2070-2079 | 2080-2089 | 2090-2099 >
At
some point during this period, a devastating earthquake hits the west
coast of the United States* The earthquake is centred on the Los Angeles basin, and is of sufficient magnitude to cause over $100 billion worth of damage. Many thousands of buildings are destroyed and there is widespread damage to roads, infrastructure, energy and water supplies. Hundreds of people are killed, while thousands more are injured. This disaster comes as California is already going through a fiscal crisis - plunging the state into bankruptcy.
2010 Iran is on the brink of revolution For years, the Iranian people have suffered hardship and repression at the hands of a corrupt and tyrannical regime. In June 2009, the disputed results of the presidential election were followed by mass protests around the country. These were bigger in scale than the unrest seen during the 1979 revolution. Tensions boiled over, with government forces taking an increasingly fierce stance. This only intensified the violence, leading to full-scale riots and the shooting dead of demonstrators in the streets. Many hundreds were arrested. Footage of the protests - taken by phones and spread via the Internet - revealed to the world just how volatile the situation was becoming.* President Ahmadinejad and his clerics attempted to blame the West, in order to stir up patriotic feeling among Iranian citizens, but this failed to have the desired effect. In 2010, further protests combined with an even more ruthless crackdown by the government is pushing the nation towards a second revolution.*
China becomes the largest energy consumer in the world China's development as an industrialised country means that this soaring energy demand will continue for some time to come.* Its economic growth has led to a massive increase in the production of cars, trucks and other vehicles, not to mention buildings and infrastructure (which includes almost one new power plant every week).
Localised
renewable energy is becoming widely available to consumers
Augmented
Reality (AR) is becoming widespread This concept has already been used in military training (to display imaginary aircraft and vehicles for example), but is now spreading to mainstream uses - such as travel, outdoor pursuits, gaming and entertainment. Other applications include architecture and interior design (for example, to superimpose virtual objects and furniture in a room, or to view buildings before they are constructed). In the next few years, this technology will be available in sunglasses. The market for mobile AR services is expected to reach $732 million by 2014, with revenues derived from a combination of paid-for app downloads, subscription based services and advertising.
OLED
screens are becoming mainstream They also eliminate the need for back lights. Sunlight that would normally "wash out" a display has no effect - the screens appear the same even in broad daylight, or when tilted at an angle.
Macular
degeneration is now curable
World's
first 100% compostable chip bags
Increased
automation in retail environments The vast majority of shops continue to use human staff, of course - but this decade marks the beginning of a trend that will lead to significant changes in retail environments.
Space
Shuttle fleet is retired
Humanitarian
crisis in Somalia Somalia's government is now on the brink of collapse, having lost control of Mogadishu. The country is rapidly descending towards anarchy, threatening the food security of its people. Piracy is also a major problem off the nation's coast, disrupting many trade and supply routes. The situation has deteriorated so much that large-scale intervention by the US military is being discussed.
Internet
has a greater reach than television Television and the Internet are in fact now converging together as one. Improving bandwidth and the continued growth of mobile technologies are driving much of this change.
Multi-touch
surface computing is available to the mass market
Speech-to-speech
translation available in mobile phones
Batteries
that charge in seconds
22
nanometer chips are in mass production
USB
3.0 available This compares with 480 Mbit/s for USB 2.0 and 1.5 Mbit/s for USB 1.0.
Consumer-level
robotics are booming Initially popular in Japan, Korea and the Far East, they are now spreading to Western homes too. Some robots clean carpets or mow the lawn; others help busy professionals entertain children or pets; other machines feed and bathe the elderly and incapacitated.
Completion
of the International Space Station
World's
first commercial spaceport Costing almost $225 million, the facility is built on 27 square miles (70 km2) of state-owned desert near Upham, an uninhabited part of New Mexico. Among the various companies involved is Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic. Travelling at over 2,600mph (4,200km/h), the spacecraft carry up to six passengers at a time, to a height of approximately 68 miles (110km), using a single hybrid rocket motor. When maximum altitude is reached, the engines are switched off, and the passengers can experience up to six minutes of zero-G whilst looking down on the Earth. The ships use a feathered re-entry system, feasible due to the low speed of re-entry, and are designed to re-enter the atmosphere at any angle, for maximum safety. In the next decade, a new generation of ships will be developed capable of reaching much higher orbits. A few years after that, trips around the Moon will become possible. Initially, the flights are very expensive (around $200,000 each). However, competition between the companies involved will greatly reduce costs, making them affordable to the majority of people later this century.
China's
Three Gorges Dam is fully operational The dam body was completed in 2006 and the originally planned components of the project were finished in 2008. However, six additional generators are installed underground in 2011 - taking its total electric generating capacity to over 22 gigawatts. The project management team and the Chinese state regard the project as a historic engineering, social and economic success: a breakthrough in the design of large turbines and a significant move toward the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. It will remove some 100 million tonnes of CO2 and 2 million tonnes of SO2 that would otherwise have been generated by coal-fired power stations. However, the dam has also flooded archaeological and cultural sites, displaced 1.25 million people, and is causing significant ecological changes, including an increased risk of landslides. The building of the dam has been a controversial topic, both in China and abroad.
Economic
growth remains sluggish in many markets With America nearly bankrupt, a clear shift in the balance of power is taking place from West to East. If the 19th century was Europe's century, and the 20th century was America's, then the 21st century looks like being Asia's - or at least, a combination of Asia's and America's.
London
hosts the Olympic Games Aside from a small number of arrests, it passes without incident. Despite this, the media tries to hype the threat of a terrorist attack as much as possible during this time. London has been transformed in recent years by a number of massive construction projects. In addition to the Olympic Games venues themselves, there is Stratford City - a new business district that will eventually rival the Square Mile and Canary Wharf. Then there is Crossrail - a £16bn rail connection linking Heathrow Airport with the central and eastern parts of the city. Various masterplans are helping to regenerate vast areas of land all over the city - including Greenwich Peninsula, Elephant & Castle, Croydon, Paddington, Battersea and elsewhere. These mixed-use developments contain hundreds of thousands of new homes, shops, and offices. Several new landmarks dominate the skyline including the Shard of Glass at London Bridge, a 72-storey crystalline spire that redefines the capital's image.
Brain-computer interfaces allowing the paralysed to walk again By this date, a prototype full-body exoskeleton has been devised which allows the paralysed to walk again - using their thoughts alone to control it.* This is achieved using a neuroprosthetic device with a highly advanced brain-computer interface (BCI) at its core, driven by neurochips implanted in the patient's skull. These monitor electrical brain activity and adjust the movement of the limbs accordingly. The project has been developed by an international team of neurophysiologists, computer scientists, engineers, roboticists, neurologists and neurosurgeons at laboratories around the world. Fresh hope is now being offered to millions of people affected by paralysis.*
A cure for baldness Until now, more than half of men and a third of women have been affected by hair loss at some point in their lives. The $1bn hair loss industry has only provided treatments to save what they have left, or cover what they have lost - not to actually grow new hair. Thanks to advances in stem cell research - along with a new compound - treatments are now available that can actually regenerate hair follicles.*
World's first 1-gigawatt offshore wind farm Construction of the largest ever offshore wind farm is underway off the southeastern coast of England. Known as the "London Array", it will supply enough power for 750,000 homes - a quarter of all those in London.* With a total of 341 turbines, it will reduce carbon emissions by nearly 2 million tonnes every year: a significant milestone in the government's plan to cut emissions by 80% by 2050. This project marks the beginning of a major expansion of offshore wind power in Britain. Numerous other large-scale wind farms will be constructed in the coming decades - greatly reducing the country's dependence on foreign energy and creating thousands of new jobs in the green industry.
Mars
Science Laboratory explores the Red Planet The mission has four goals:
Barack
Obama is re-elected
Iran
carries out its first nuclear test Technology covertly supplied by Russia has allowed it to fulfill its nuclear ambitions. Faced with such a grave potential threat, Israel's economy goes into freefall. Although the Iranian government repeatedly states its peaceful intentions, the region as a whole now enters a period of instability the likes of which has never been seen before. This nuclear test is viewed in the West as the most significant world event since 9/11.
4G wireless communications The successor to 3G, these new networks offer a comprehensive IP solution where voice, data and streamed multimedia can be given to users on an "anytime, anywhere" basis. This is possible at much higher data rates than previous generations - up to 1 Gb/s. These vastly improved speeds mean that high definition television, for example, can be streamed in real time on a mobile phone, while entire movies can be downloaded in minutes. 4G also provides seamless connectivity and global roaming across multiple networks.
3D
technologies are widespread James Cameron's Avatar, released in 2009, was a major breakthrough in terms of developing this format and raising awareness of its potential. In 2010, new 3D TV channels are introduced and these can even be viewed without 3D glasses. This effect is achieved via multiple projectors behind the screen, combined with a lens array that creates a parallax effect from any direction. Among the many TV events during this time is the first ever FIFA World Cup to be screened in 3D. Compatibility is soon incorporated into a range of consumer products including Blu-ray recorders, games consoles and personal computers. By 2013, the technology has become widespread in homes in developed countries.*
India
launches its second lunar exploration mission
James
Webb telescope is launched
Personalised
DNA sequencing for less than $100 Medical treatments can now be delivered on a highly personalised level, uniquely tailored to a patient's genetic code. For example, a doctor can biopsy a cancer patient's tumor, sequence all of its DNA, and use that information to determine a prognosis and prescribe treatment - all for less than the cost of a chest X-ray. In the case of lung cancer, the doctor can determine the exact genetic changes in the tumor cells and order the chemotherapy best suited to that variant. Meanwhile, parents of newborns now have the option of determining if their baby is susceptible to conditions like diabetes, and then modifying the baby's diet and medication from day one to reduce the chance of it ever manifesting.
Internet
"lifecasting" enters the mainstream Rather than simple text updates, every moment of a person's daily experiences can now be captured in real time, on video. This is available on social networking sites, so that communities of users can "subscribe" to the lives of those they wish to follow - including a number of famous celebrities.
16
nanometer chips are in mass production
Robotic
pack mules are entering military service* Locomotion, navigation and balance are controlled by an onboard computer that receives input from the robot's many sensors, which include a stereo vision system, laser gyroscopes, joint position and ground contact monitors. These machines greatly reduce the burden of equipment for soldiers.*
Maven
probe arrives at Mars
Most phone calls are made via the Internet now By now, almost every home and office in the developed world has adopted Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) systems, such as Skype.* These connections are made over the Internet, rather than traditional phone lines. Undoubtedly the biggest advantage of VoIP is the cost. PC-to-PC phone calls can be made anywhere in the world, at any time, for free. PC-to-phone connections usually charge a fee, but are generally much cheaper than standard phone services with conventional handsets. Another advantage is the portability. Phone calls can be made and received from any PC - provided there is a broadband connection - simply by signing into your personal VoIP account. Phone-to-phone VoIP is also portable. When you sign up with a VoIP servicer provider, the Internet phone or adaptor that is used with that service is assigned a unique number. This 'phone number' remains valid even if your VoIP service provider is located in England and you are connected to the Internet in Australia. An Internet phone is small and light enough to take with you anywhere. It can simply be plugged into any broadband connection, anywhere in the world, and used to make and receive calls, just as though you were in your own home or office. There are several other features that make VoIP attractive. Call forwarding, call waiting, voicemail, caller ID and three-way calling are some of the many services included with Internet telephone at no extra charge. Digital data such as pictures, documents and other files can also be transmitted at the same time you are talking on the phone.
Brazil
hosts the FIFA World Cup
2015-2019 Virtual
Reality makes a comeback Combined with developments in on-person hardware, this is leading to the rebirth of virtual reality. Having been something of a gimmick in the 1990s, it is now becoming a serious tool for business, leisure, education and training. For the rich, options for this form of technology now include pod-like structures which are fully enclosing.* Much of
the content in these simulations is user-generated. There are many online
communities for sharing and exchanging virtual objects, buildings, avatars,
etc. The most impressive creations are rated and promoted in a manner
similar to YouTube.
Worldwide PC use reaches 2 billion PC adoption in emerging markets has been growing at a phenomenal pace. There were a billion PCs in use in 2008, and this number doubles by 2015. In other words, it took nearly 30 years to reach the one billion mark, but only seven to grow from 1 billion to 2 billion.
Nanotech
water filters are in widespread use The "Lifesaver Bottle" filters water-borne pathogens, using holes just 15 nanometers across, to prevent even the smallest viruses (25 nanometers across) getting through, and eliminating the need for chemicals to treat the water. The Lifesaver Bottle is fitted with a 4000UF replaceable purification cartridge that removes bacteria, viruses, cysts, parasites, fungi, and all other microbiological water-borne pathogens.* It also comes with an activated carbon filter, made of a high specification activated carbon block. This reduces a broad spectrum of chemical residues including: pesticides, endocrine disrupting compounds, medical residues and heavy metals such as lead and copper. The carbon filter also eliminates bad tastes and odors from contaminates such as chlorine and sulphur. It is designed to last for approximately 250 litres.*
The
first climate change refugees The melting
of polar ice sheets and glaciers, together with thermal expansion, could
raise the level of Earth's oceans nearly 2m by 2100 - potentially displacing
hundreds of millions of people.
Artificial
heart implants
New
Horizons probe arrives at Pluto
Voyager
I enters the heliopause Launched in 1977, its original mission was to visit Jupiter and Saturn. It became the first probe to provide detailed images of these planets and their moons. In 2003, it entered the "termination shock" - the point where solar wind particles slow down to subsonic speeds due to interactions with the local interstellar medium. By 2015, it has travelled so far that it has begun entering a region known as the "heliopause" - the point where the interstellar medium and solar wind pressures balance. It remains operational during this time, pursuing its extended mission to study the very boundaries of the Solar System, including the Kuiper Belt and beyond. The probe, along with its sister - Voyager II - will continue operating as they head for the "Bow Shock", the true beginnings of interstellar space. They will transmit signals back to Earth until at least 2025 (half a century after they were launched) before their power finally runs out.
The US military withdraws from Afghanistan The war had been going on since October 2001 - both as a response to the 9/11 attacks, and as a result of ongoing issues from before the attacks. The stated aim of the invasion was to find Osama bin Laden and other high-ranking Al-Qaeda members and to put them on trial, destroy the whole organisation of Al-Qaeda and remove the Taliban regime which supported them. The Bush administration stated that, as policy, it would not distinguish between terrorist organisations and nations or governments that sheltered them. The United Nations did not authorise the US-led invasion of Afghanistan. The first phase was the aftermath of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, when the US launched Operation Enduring Freedom, to annihilate the safe haven to Al-Qaeda and its use of the Afghan territory as a base of operations for terrorist activities. In that first phase, US and coalition forces, working with the Afghan opposition forces of the Northern Alliance, quickly ousted the Taliban regime. During the following Karzai administration, the character of the war shifted to an effort aimed at smothering insurgency. Over the following years, however, it became clear that little progress was being made in the hunt for bin Laden - and planning to ensure the long-term political, social and economic stability of the country was lacking. America's presence in Afghanistan was inflaming tensions along Pakistan's border. In the eyes of many people, the invasion was doing more to destabilise the country than protect it. By 2009, more than 1,500 coalition troops had been killed, while even the most conservative estimates put civilian deaths in the tens of thousands. There were also multiple accounts of torture and human rights violations by coalition forces. In addition, the cost of the war was mounting and had now reached almost $7bn per month, at a time when America was facing its worst financial crisis in decades. Public opinion - having initially been high - declined substantially. When President Obama announced a further increase of 30,000 US troops, cities across America saw protests. Although this troop surge met with some success, it became clear that the war was simply unsustainable. Efforts by the US to train the Afghan National Army and to transfer security responsibility were plagued by inefficiency, widespread illiteracy and endemic corruption. A series of phased withdrawals began in 2011, with the last remaining US troops pulling out in 2016 - fifteen years after the start of the invasion.* This made it almost as long as the Vietnam War.
Orbital solar power The first orbital solar power station is put into operation this year.* This concept has been theoretical for decades, but has finally become a reality thanks to improvements in high-energy conversion devices, heavy-launch vehicles, and a revolutionary spacecraft design by California-based company, Solaren Inc. Using a hexagonal arrangement of solar panels in Earth orbit, the station generates power by converting sunlight into radio-frequency transmissions, which are beamed down to a receiving station. From there, the energy is converted into electricity and fed into the power grid. Over 200 megawatts of power can be generated in this way - enough to supply 250,000 homes and keep nearly a million tons of greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere each year. Unlike ground-based solar arrays, space satellites can generate power 24 hours a day, being unaffected by cloudy weather or the day-night cycle of Earth. The capacity factor for ground-based solar is typically less than 25%, but for a satellite is 97%. Another company - Space Energy, Inc. - have plans to provide space-based solar power by 2019.
5G wireless communications Super-fast data transfer up to 12.5Gb/s is now available to mobile phones and other wireless digital devices. The service initially operates in Europe, but is quickly adopted by America, Asia and the rest of the world. This form of technology is becoming so fast that it will soon make computer hard drives redundant - vast quantities of data can be stored and retrieved online almost instantly, with virtually no lag. With little need for physical storage space, laptops begin evolving into ultra-compact, ultra-lightweight forms.
A new generation of telescope observatories Several major new telescopes are becoming operational during this time. These include the Giant Magellan Telescope in Chile (which has over four times the light-gathering power of existing instruments), the Thirty Meter Telescope, and the European Extremely Large Telescope (which has an aperture of 42 metres).
Holographic
Versatile Disc (HVD) replaces Blu-Ray The price of storage per gigabyte is plummeting - from around $1 per gigabyte in 2006, to less than 10 cents now. This is an example of the trend of exponential progress (rather than linear) seen in forms of information technology. HVD itself is in danger of becoming obsolete, before it has even been properly established, as solid state flash drives are increasingly being used for digital transfer, some with even higher capacities, along with read and write speeds faster than any optical disc. The new SDXC card format specification for example has already reached the 2TB mark.
Bio-cameras matching human eye resolution Advances in biotech and sensor technology have enabled the development of tiny "bio-cameras".* These devices can be implanted like contact lenses, and are capable of taking photos with hundreds of millions of pixels' worth of information: equal to the resolution of the human eye itself.* For now, they are a luxury item used only by the rich - or in specialist roles such as covert spying operations. However, within a few years they will begin entering mainstream use. Future versions will enable the capture of moving video and audio, in addition to static photos.
Rio de Janeiro hosts the Olympic Games Rio becomes the first ever South American city to host the event.
Enlargement
of the EU Turkey’s bid is still the subject of controversy, however. Although a major regional power – and uniquely positioned as a bridge between East and West – it has yet to satisfy the conditions for entry. Despite some improvements to human rights, the country still lacks key principles of a liberal democracy, such as freedom of expression. Repressive laws such as Article 301, for example, make it illegal to insult Turkey or Turkish government institutions. Turkey's large population would also change the balance of power in the representative European institutions. Upon joining the EU, its 70 million inhabitants would give it the second largest number of MEPs in the European Parliament – and demographic projections indicate that Turkey would surpass Germany in the number of seats by 2020. Some also oppose the accession of a largely Muslim country. Another concern is that Turkey continues to occupy the northern third of the island of Cyprus, which became an EU member in 2004, with 40,000 Turkish troops stationed there. Turkey refuses to recognise the Republic of Cyprus as the sole authority on the island. Turkey's membership would also affect future enlargement plans. Even North African countries such as Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria (for example) could begin pressing for EU membership.
Crossrail
opens in London Ten-coach trains, roughly 200 metres long, run at frequencies of up to 24 trains per hour in each direction during the peak periods.
Electronic
paper is widespread Organic thin film transistors (TFT) are combined with organic, electroluminescent displays. This produces flexible, paper-thin devices less than 0.3mm in thickness and capable of running high-quality video. The applications are endless. They include the first true "e-books" and "e-papers" (which can also be read in the dark), clothes and other textiles with electronic displays, video posters, video leaflets, video cards, road signs that are self-illuminating, video instructions on food packaging and other boxed items. Further development leads to much greater contrast ratio - resembling printed paper more than a screen (the latter is often hard to see in direct sunlight and other conditions). This technology also marks a step towards the first paperless offices, which in turn helps to reduce deforestation.
Portable laser devices that seal wounds Star Trek-style devices shaped like pens are now available which can seal wounds, using specially controlled lasers in combination with a blood protein called albumin. Heated at just the right temperature, this forms a natural "glue" after the skin has cooled down. Using this method allows a wound to be stronger, water-tight, and less likely to scar than traditional stitches. Following several years of development and refinement, they are used in many hospitals now.* These devices will be cheap and safe enough for the consumer market within a few years.
Teleportation of simple molecules For a number of years, scientists had been teleporting individual atoms and particles of light. By this date, the first molecules such as water and carbon dioxide are being teleported.* This will be followed in the late 2030s by complex organic molecules such as DNA and proteins.*
The
ITER experimental fusion reactor is switched on ITER - previously known as the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor - aims to be the first project to achieve this. Built in southern France at a cost of €20 billion, it has taken over a decade to construct and is one of the largest scientific projects ever undertaken, second only to the International Space Station. This joint research experiment is funded by the US, EU, Japan, Russia, China, India and South Korea. To demonstrate net fusion power on a large scale, the reactor must simulate the conditions at the heart of the Sun. For this, it uses a magnetic confinement device called a tokamak. This doughnut-shaped vacuum chamber generates a powerful magnetic field that prevents heat from touching the reactor's walls. Tiny quantities of fuel are injected into and trapped within the chamber. Here they are heated to 100 million degrees, forming a plasma. At such high temperatures, the light atomic nuclei of hydrogen become fused together, creating heavier forms of hydrogen such as deuterium and tritium. This releases neutrons and a huge amount of energy. Following its operational activation in 2018, it is hoped that ITER will eventually produce more than 500 megawatts of power, in bursts of 400 seconds or more. This compares with 16 MW for the Joint European Torus (JET) in 1997, the previous world record peak fusion power, which lasted only a few seconds. ITER will require another few decades before its reactor has been sufficiently perfected. To generate the sort of continuous levels of power required for commercial operation, it will need a way of holding the plasma in place at the critical densities and temperatures. This will need refinements in the design of the chamber, such as better superconducting magnets and advances in vacuum systems. However, it could ultimately lead to a revolution in energy. If this project were to succeed, humanity would gain a virtually unlimited supply of clean, green electricity.*
Ubiquitous
internet nodes connect appliances, vehicles, etc. Meanwhile, refrigerators can be programmed to order new food before they become empty.* RFID microchips smaller than grains of sand are printed on packaging labels. These connect wirelessly to the refrigerator, which sends an order via the Internet. At a pre-arranged time, the food is then delivered to the customer's door. Devices are also being synchronised in various ways. They can even sense where you are in the home. A person can be listening to a football commentary in their bedroom, for example, then walk to the lounge and have the television activate itself, then walk to their car outside and have the signal "follow" them by turning on the appropriate radio channel. In addition to being linked with their user's home network, the majority of cars and other vehicles are now connected to the world wide web. Television, radio and film are converging with the Internet more than ever. Thanks to improved bandwidth and screen displays, the main computer in the home is evolving into a hub which combines these media. In addition, remote control units are becoming obsolete for many people. Improved sensor technology means that TVs and stereos can now be controlled by simple hand gestures or voice commands.
Robot insect spies are in military use These "micro aerial vehicles" - no larger than a common house fly - have been in development for over a decade.* One of the major hurdles was creating sufficient battery power in such a small object, as well as keeping them light enough to remain airborne. Advances in nanotechnology solved this problem. Together with improvements in computing power, this allowed circuitry and components to be packed more closely. The robots are being used primarily in spying missions, where they quite literally serve as a "fly on the wall" - recording and transmitting audio-visual information. An individual robot is equipped with miniature cameras, microphones, modem and GPS. Many terrorist cells are being infiltrated thanks to this. More sophisticated versions are being developed for assassin roles. These have capsules in the abdomen of the insect, filled with cyanide or another lethal toxin. This is delivered to the target via a small needle capable of piercing human skin. Some robots work in groups, forming networks that combine their abilities. Over the next few decades, further advances in nanotech will lead to enormous swarms of these machines being deployed on the battlefield.* However, concerns are being raised as to how this technology will affect the privacy and safety of citizens.
Consumer devices with 100 Gbit/s transfer speeds A new form of data transfer is now available for the consumer market. This is known as "Light Peak" and is replacing the Universal Serial Bus (USB) connections which have been the standard for many years. The USB 3.0 specification allowed transfer speeds of 4.8 Gbit/s. An early version of Light Peak achieved 10 Gbit/s. This latest version, however, can achieve nearly 100 Gbit/s - enough to transfer a full-length Blu-Ray movie in around two seconds. The optical technology of Light Peak also allows for smaller connectors with longer, thinner and more flexible cables. In addition, it can run multiple protocols simultaneously over a single cable, enabling the technology to connect devices such as peripherals, workstations, displays, disk drives, docking stations and more.*
Anti-fat drug is available A drug that lets you eat whatever you want without gaining weight is now available.* There is enormous demand for this product, which leads to a major drop in obesity levels throughout the developed world - especially in countries like the USA, which until now had been experiencing a crisis in this regard. Average life expectancy is increased as a result, since there are less people dying of heart-related illnesses.
The new World Trade Center is complete A full 17 years after the destruction of the World Trade Center, its replacement - 1 World Trade Center - is finally complete. Formerly known as the Freedom Tower, the project was delayed due to acrimonious disputes over money, security and design.* The new tower features a spire, reaching a total height of 1,776 ft (a reference to the year that America declared its independence). The roof height is identical to that of the previous twin towers on the site.* The project also features a memorial to the victims of the 9/11 attacks.
Computers break the exaflop barrier An exaflop is 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 (a million trillion, or a quintillion) calculations per second. The world's top supercomputers are now achieving this speed. This represents a thousandfold improvement over machines of a decade earlier.* This exponential growth will continue, so that by 2029, computers will surpass the zettaflop barrier - a thousand times faster than an exaflop computer of 2019, and a million times faster than a petaflop computer of 2009. One of the many resulting applications will be the accurate simulation of an entire human brain and its neurons, in real time. Personal computers in 2019 are becoming ever smaller, lighter and more compact - with laptops, netbooks and other mobile devices far outnumbering desktops.* Physical hard drives are becoming almost redundant, with most storage now done online using "virtual drives" housed in remote servers, aided by the tremendous growth in broadband speeds and 5G wireless communications. Web applications have reached startling levels of power and sophistication, especially where search engines are concerned. These not only find keywords in a search, but also interpret the context of the request. Users can enter complex, highly specific questions (such as "I'd like to see a comedy at the cinema after 9pm, then have an Italian meal for less than $20") and receive detailed answers and recommendations, often customised to their exact personal tastes and interests. This emerging form of AI - which effectively acts like a personal assistant - means the web now offers a far more productive and intuitive experience.*
Automated freight transport Autonomous rapid transit systems have already been in place at certain airports, and on the metro systems of cities. By this date, significant numbers of driverless trucks have begun appearing on the roads.* They are capable of travelling hundreds of miles by themselves, negotiating traffic and other obstacles, and utilising advanced GPS technologies. They have a number of advantages over human drivers - such as being able to run 24 hours a day without getting tired, never being absent, and not requiring a salary or training. The trucks can also detect mechanical or software faults.* These automated vehicles will eventually include cars, taxis and other types of road vehicles, becoming widespread by the 2030s.
The Aral Sea disappears from the map As recently as the 1970s, the Aral Sea was the world's fourth largest lake, with an area of 68,000 km2. However, Soviet irrigation projects diverted the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers which fed into it. By 2004, the sea had shrunk to 25% of its original surface area, and a nearly fivefold increase in salinity had killed most of its natural flora and fauna. By 2007, it had declined to 10% of its original size, splitting into three separate lakes, two of which were too salty to support fish. The once prosperous fishing industry had been virtually destroyed, and former fishing towns along the original shores became ship graveyards. The Aral Sea was also heavily polluted, largely as a result of weapons testing, industrial projects, pesticides and fertilizer runoff. Wind-blown salt from the dried seabed damaged crops and polluted drinking water, while salt- and dust-laden air causd major public health problems in the Aral Sea region. The retreat of the sea also caused localised climate change, with summers becoming hotter and drier, and winters colder and longer. Although a dam project in 2005 saved what little remained of the northern part of the sea (the Small Aral), the much larger southern part of the sea (the Large Aral) continued to shrink, and by 2019 had evaporated entirely.*
Global
oil demand exceeds 100m barrels per day
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References 1
Big Quake "Guaranteed" to Hit
California by 2037, National Geographic: 2
Neda Agha-Soltan, YouTube: 3
How long can the Iranian government last?, FT.com: 4
Global oil-price roller coaster challenges the world, Tehran Times: 5
FDA Advisory Panel Recommends Approval of VisionCare's Implantable
Telescope for End-Stage Macular Degeneration, VisionCare: 6
Robot Wars: The Rise of Artificial Intelligence, The
Independent: 7
"Their goal is to enable a paralyzed person to walk again by the
end of 2012." 8
The Walk Again Project: 9
Possible cure for baldness, YouTube: 10
World's largest offshore wind farm to be built off Kent coast,
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Cinema leads the way in opening up 3D - but TV, games and
mobile are not far behind, FoxMedia.co.uk: 12
$100 Genome, Technology Review: 13
Big Dog, YouTube: 14
Jacqui Smith's secret plan to carry on snooping, The Times: 15
NAU, an international design collective, is developing a prototype of
the "Immersive Cocoon". This pod-like structure fully encloses
a person, allowing graphics to be displayed around them in a 3-D environment,
with 360° screens and full surround sound. NAU completes its prototype
in 2009, and models are going to be commercially available by 2014. See
Designers developing virtual-reality 'Cocoon', CNN.com: http://edition.cnn.com/2008/TECH/09/11/immersive.cocoon/index.html 16
Michael Pritchard makes filthy water drinkable, TEDTalks: 17
Carteret Islands: 'The sea is killing our island paradise', The Telegraph: 18
'Full' artificial heart implant, BBC.co.uk: 19
U.S. will be out of Afghanistan by 2017: White House, Reuters: 20
PG&E makes deal for space solar power, MSNBC: 21
Human brain: fuse with computer chips biodigital brain, YouTube.com: 22
Notes on the Resolution and Other Details of the Human Eye, ClarkVision.com: 23
Razor-thin TV you can wear as a T-shirt, Daily Mail: 24
Sci-fi laser stiches wounds, Reuters.com: 25
Michio Kaku on Teleportation, YouTube: 26
Steven Cowley: Fusion is energy's future, TED Talks: 27
v-Fluence CEO Contends Growth in Mobile “Apps” Forebodes
PC’s Demise, openpr.com: 28
A Hornet-sized Robotic Insect Can Now Fly, Singularity2050.com: 29 See 2042. 30
Light Peak Technology, Intel: 31
The Future Is Now? Pretty Soon, at Least, nytimes.com: 32
Secret report: Ground Zero Freedom Tower construction lags, slated
for 2018 finish, New York Daily News: 33
Skyscraper diagrams, SkyscraperPage.com: 34
IBM breaks petaflop barrier, infoworld.com: 35
How Web 3.0 Will Work, HowStuffWorks.com: 36
The robot revolution: Driverless trucks and voice-activated pets could
be commonplace by 2019, DailyMail.co.uk: 37
Aral Sea, Kazakhstan, nasa.gov: 38
Peak Oil: Life After the Oil Crash, lifeaftertheoilcrash.net: |
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