21st century ...

2050-2059 Contents

2050 - The World in 2050 | 45% of the Amazon rainforest has been destroyed | Wildfires have tripled in some regions; air quality and visibility is declining | Smaller, faster, hi-tech automobiles | Continent-wide "supergrids" provide much of the world's energy needs | One in five Europeans is a Muslim

2052 - Hyper-fast crime scene analysis

2053 - Moore's Law reaches stunning new levels | Genetically engineered "designer babies" for the rich

2055 - Traditional media have fragmented and diversified | Global population plateaus at 9 billion

2056 - Fully synthetic humans are becoming technically feasible

2057 - Computers reach another milestone | Handheld MRI scanners

2058 - Construction of a radio telescope on the Moon

2059 - Mars has a permanent human presence by now

 

2000-2009 | 2010-2019 | 2020-2029 | 2030-2039 | 2040-2049 | 2050-2059 | 2060-2069 | 2070-2079 | 2080-2089 | 2090-2099 >

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2050

The World in 2050

The main players in the world today are the USA, China, the EU, India, Japan, Russia and Brazil (in that order*). For China and India, the immense population of these two nations means that, per capita, their incomes remain relatively low. Nevertheless, they now wield huge economic influence.

 

© Luca Oleastri | Dreamstime.com

 

The frantic pace of globalisation has continued. Intercultural connection is resulting in white caucasians gradually becoming a minority in the USA and elsewhere.

Radical Islam and its resentment of the West continues to produce new Jihadists. At least one terrorist nuclear attack on a major world city has been carried out by now. This occurs in the form of a well-planned "dirty bomb" on a financial district. Large amounts of nuclear material had been missing from Russia since the early 1990s, and some of this inevitably fell into the wrong hands. Being orders of magnitude greater than 9/11, the effects of the attack leave a deep psychological scar on many people alive today, and fuel much paranoia and suspicion between nations, in addition to throwing the world's economy into turmoil for several years.

Despite this tension, progress has been achieved in cooperating on certain key issues, such as the environment. Carbon emissions have fallen substantially compared with 1990 levels - thanks to advanced nanotechnology, across-the-board improvements in energy efficiency and power conservation, widespread deployment of solar, wind and wave power, as well as 4th generation nuclear power. The depletion of oil reserves has played a part too. Fusion power is also becoming available now and is being adopted by most of the leading nations. Orbital solar power is another industry seeing major growth around this time.

However, the delayed reaction of carbon emissions from previous decades is continuing to affect weather patterns and climate stability, as is the ongoing destruction of the Earth's rainforests. Sea levels have risen over half a metre by now and are beginning to affect much of the world's coastal real estate. Many countries are now turning to large-scale carbon sequestration as a way of reversing the damage done.

Space travel has taken a big leap forward by this time, with greatly reduced launch costs allowing a much greater frequency of flights.* Substantially heavier payloads can also be lifted into orbit. Space tourism is becoming relatively commonplace, with even middle-income citizens enjoying orbital flights. For the super-rich, lunar orbits and even brief excursions to the Moon's surface are becoming possible.

Progress is being made with nuclear pulse propulsion, bringing the manned exploration of the outer solar system closer to reality. The first permanent scientific station is located on Mars now, with plans underway to expand it. Meanwhile, serious efforts are being made in developing the first space elevator, which will be anchored in Australia. Commercial asteroid mining is being studied as a long term option by the US, China, Japan and the EU.

The largest space-based telescopes of today can directly view extrasolar planets in detail and establish facts about their geology and climate.

 

 

45% of the Amazon rainforest has been destroyed

Lack of enforcement in the so-called protected areas has resulted in the Amazon undergoing a catastrophic decline. The government sent army troups into regions of illegal deforestation, but the numbers of soldiers were simply too small, and the Amazon rainforest too vast, to have much impact.

Political support from organisations of farmers has also diminished, while corruption amongst government personnel has been another factor.

Droughts caused by global warming have also contributed to the gradual decline of the rainforest, with many areas of jungle turned into virtual deserts.

 

 

As a result, an extra 30 billion tons of carbon have been added to the atmosphere. Although the clean energy sources described earlier have offset this, it can't save the many thousands of species of plant and animal life which depend on the rainforest for survival. A huge amount of biodiversity is lost during this time. Desperate efforts are made by non-profit organisations to obtain DNA samples, in the hope of resurrecting these species at some point in the future.

 

Above: A red-eyed tree frog

 

 

Wildfires have tripled in some regions; air quality and visibility is declining

Rising global temperatures are creating drier conditions for vegetation - producing larger and more frequent wildfires. In North America, the geographic area typically burned has increased by an average of 50%. Worst hit are the forests of the Pacific Northwest and the Rocky Mountains, which have seen a tripling of areas affected.*

With so much extra burning, the air quality and visibility throughout the western USA is being significantly altered. There has been a 40% rise in organic carbon aerosols and other smoke particles.* These irritate the lungs, but are especially dangerous to people who have trouble breathing as a result of asthma and other chronic conditions.

Southern Europe is also particularly affected - especially Greece, which has been ravaged in recent decades.*

These wildfires are triggering positive feedback loops. Since they pump more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, this is further accelerating the pace of global warming.

Substantial economic damage is now being caused to a number of countries, while insurance premiums are soaring.

 

Credit: Roger Rosentreter

 

 

Smaller, faster, hi-tech automobiles

Soaring living costs - along with exhorbitant taxes and measures relating to the environment - have led to cars and other vehicles evolving into smaller, cheaper, more energy-efficient designs.

More people than ever before are choosing to live and work alone, while the number of children per couple has also dropped sharply; two additional factors which have led to these lighter, more compact vehicles - a large percentage of which carry no more than one or two passengers.

Nearly all cars in the developed world are now computer-controlled, while traffic flow and road management issues are handled by advanced networks of AI. The resulting fall in congestion has boosted some economies by tens of billions of dollars.

The inherent safety of being controlled by machine, rather than human hands, allows for much greater speed of travel: over 200mph on some motorways. Even when crashes do occur, which is extraordinarily rare, the built-in safety features and toughened materials (including the use of carbon nanotubes) means that fatalaties are becoming virtually non-existent.

Meanwhile, a number of the largest automakers are conducting long term research into hovering/flying vehicles, based on existing military technology.

 

A typical mid-range car of 2050.

 

 

Continent-wide "supergrids" provide much of the world's energy needs

The need for reliable, clean, cost-effective energy has led to the creation of electrical "supergrids" across much of the world.* These allow nations to share power from abundant green sources and distribute it to those regions most in need. By cooperating in this way, it is possible to substantially reduce waste and to optimise power supplies on a continent-wide scale, at all times of the year.

For instance, winter gales in the North Sea can provide a surplus of wind power, which is complemented by the summer winds of Morocco and Egypt. Meanwhile, solar panels in northern Africa generate three times the electricity compared with the same panels in northern Europe, due to the greater intensity of sunlight. Up to 100 GW of power is being supplied from Africa to Europe in this way.*

Similar large-scale infrastructure is now in place throughout America, Asia and other parts of the world.

Long distance transmission technology has seen major advances over the decades. Each country is connected to the grid using high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission, instead of traditional alternating current (AC) lines. This results in far greater efficiency, since DC lines have much lower electrical losses over long distances.

 

Source: Desertec Foundation

 

 

One in five Europeans is a Muslim

At the start of this century, less than 5% of the EU's population was Muslim. By the early 2050s, this figure has risen to over 20% - due to a combination of soaring immigration from Muslim countries and record low birth rates among Europe's indigenous population.*

Britain, Spain and Holland have an even higher percentage. These countries, in particular, are going through significant changes to their culture, education, housing, economic and foreign policies. This is creating a great deal of social unrest.*

This demographic sea change will continue, with some EU countries becoming majority Muslim by 2100. However, a significant percentage will be only "culturally" Muslim - rather than having a literal interpretation of the Koran - as mainstream Islam begins a reformation and modernisation.

 

© Monkey Business Images | Dreamstime.com

 

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2052

Hyper-fast crime scene analysis

Crime scene analysis and forensic science is becoming extraordinarily rapid and sophisticated. Thanks to the convergence of a bewildering array of technologies, investigations that might have taken hours, days or weeks in earlier decades can now be completed in a matter of minutes.

On-person devices - combining Augmented Reality, nanotechnology, pattern recognition software, AI programs and vast online databases - are turning the average FBI officer into a walking laboratory.

DNA scanning in particular has seen major breakthroughs in recent years. Genetic material can now be decoded instantaneously, on the spot.*

 

 

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2053

Moore's Law reaches stunning new levels

Due to Moore's Law, desktop PCs now have AI systems equivalent to all of the human brains on Earth combined.

It is becoming difficult to distinguish human from machine intelligence, with online services now host to entities of astonishing realism and interactivity. Many programs are in fact merging with human intelligence, as the drive towards brain-computer links increases - fueled by the breakneck pace of the global economy and the need for hyperfast exchange of information.

With such raw computational power available, the consumer market has been revolutionised. Video games of today provide fantastically lifelike simulations, with deep levels of interaction.

Although full immersion VR has been available for a while now, recent advances in AI have led to Matrix-style worlds of breathtaking scale and ingenuity. Entire new societies are forming in cyberspace, with many in developed nations spending their entire leisure time engaged in them. Mounting stresses from the outside world have also served to increase demand for this form of recreation: as a means of escaping from reality itself.

 

Credit: Ray Kurzweil

 

 

Genetically engineered "designer babies" for the rich

The ability to manipulate DNA has come a long way since its discovery in 1953. A century on, wealthy parents now have the option of creating "perfect" babies in the laboratory. This is done by picking and choosing their best hereditary traits. Gender, height, skin, hair and eye colour - along with hundreds of other characteristics - can be programmed into the embryo prior to birth. The embryo is then grown in an artificial uterus.*

The most advanced (and controversial) techniques involve manipulating the brain to improve the child's intelligence, behaviour and personality. Many conservative and religious groups decry what they see as the commercialisation of the human body.

 

© Oxlock | Dreamstime.com

 

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2055

Traditional media have fragmented and diversified

By now, traditional Western news corporations no longer exist. News gathering, analysis and distribution has instead fragmented - shifting to millions of creative individuals, bloggers, citizen journalists and small-scale enterprises. Each of these works cooperatively and seamlessly, utilising a "global commons" of instantly shared knowledge and freely available resources. This includes information retrieval not only from cyberspace but also the real world; embedded in everything from webcams and personal digital devices, to orbiting satellites, robots, vehicles, roads, street lamps, buildings, stadia and other public places.

Even people themselves have become a part of this collection process. Bionic eye implants (for example) can relay data and footage on the spot, in real time, from those willing to participate.

Traditional Western TV channels have largely disappeared, replaced by unique "personalised" web channels, covering practically any subject or combination of subjects imaginable. These are filtered and customised to the exact tastes and requirements of the individual and are viewable anywhere, at anytime. They can be highly interactive and are often experienced in virtual reality settings, rather than on a screen. This is especially true of movies, many of which have non-linear plotlines allowing the viewer to influence the outcome themselves, or even to become characters within the film.

Mass advertising, too, has undergone a revolution in Western societies. Some of the oldest outdoor media still exist - such as posters, billboards and leaflets - which continue to survive in holographic and other forms. However, online web and televisual product/service information is now accessed almost entirely from on-demand, advanced customer feedback networks along with automated, semantic web assistants. Together these can provide instant, factual and trustworthy information on a highly personalised level: automatically filtering any marketing bias or corporate propaganda which might have influenced a consumer in the past.

Despite the increased choice and empowerment, one major consequence of this fragmentation (a trend which began in the 1980s) has been increased isolation of the individual. A decrease in the shared experience of media has led to a further decline in Western family and community life.

Poorer nations are still reliant on traditional forms of media gathering and information dissemination. However, in the decades to come, many of them will begin to make the transition too - thanks to exponential trends in price performance and improved access to web technology.

 

© Ken Toh | Dreamstime.com

 

 

Global population plateaus at 9 billion

The global population has reached over 9 billion by now.* The population is also getting older, putting a huge strain on government welfare systems, labour supply and employment. Nearly a quarter of the planet is aged over 60 now - and with so many breakthroughs in medicine, this trend will only continue.

As has long been the case, most of the population growth has occurred in the developing world. However, better education along with improved access to contraception and other birth control methods is having a significant effect on reducing the number of children per couple.

The world's population is therefore beginning to level off and plateau.

Damage inflicted by climate change is also having an effect now, with vast numbers killed by drought, flooding, hurricanes and other extreme weather events; not to mention disease, lack of resources and various ongoing wars. The humanitarian crises of past decades are beginning to look modest by comparison, as whole swathes of Africa are now becoming essentially uninhabitable. Much of the Middle East, too, is facing complete collapse.

 

© Pac | Dreamstime.com

 

Over the next few decades, droughts will increase tenfold,* making agriculture impossible for many regions. In other parts of the globe, intense tropical storms have inundated cities. Everywhere, there are people being caught up in resource wars and other conflicts. Enormous shantytowns begin to form in some regions, as tens of millions are displaced.* Poverty and crime are rife in Africa, South America, and parts of southern Asia. Many of these places are so destitute that they are being reclassified as "fourth world" countries.* Pollution has also contributed to large numbers of deaths, especially in Asia.

Over two-thirds of people live in urban areas by this time,* and there are vast, sprawling megacities in all corners of the globe. In the very densest parts of the developed world, some of the tallest skyscrapers reach kilometres in height, are occupied by millions of people, and are effectively becoming cities in their own right with self-sufficient energy and food production. Many residents within these gleaming towers spend almost their whole lives in these buildings, with little need or want to venture outside.

The population of the USA has reached nearly 450 million now (up from 303 million in 2008), with Hispanics more than doubling their share of the population to 29%, and Asians going from 5% to 9%. Whites who are not Hispanic have become a minority, with their share dropping to 47%. They made up 85% of the population in 1960.* Due to climate change, most of the population growth has occured in the north-eastern states, which have better access to water and are generally more stable. California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas have seen massive declines in wealth and influence.

 

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2056

Fully synthetic humans are becoming technically feasible

In 2010, scientists created the first synthetic cell. Mycoplasma laboratorium was an entirely new species of bacterium, with a man-made set of genetic code, placed on a synthetic chromosome inside an empty cell. Using its new "software", the cell could generate proteins and produce new cells.*

This was followed in subsequent years by a variety of specialised organisms. Some were able to generate new vaccines and medicines; others produced biofuels and similarly useful products.

As the decades went by, larger and more complex life forms were created in the laboratory, including multi-celled animals large enough to be seen by the naked eye.

Synthetic genomics continued to advance exponentially, driven by the breakneck pace of information technology. Large animals - variants of birds, fish and mammals - became available with fully customisable limbs, sensory organs and other features, for use in a variety of commercial, scientific and industrial roles. New plants were created too, some with bizarre yet extremely useful abilities. Certain trees, for example, could be programmed to grow and shape themselves into furniture or building components.

By 2056, the number of cells that can be synthesised in a single organism has reached 100 trillion: equal to the total number in the human body.* Debates are occurring over the potential for "synthetic people" entering the population. What rights and freedoms would they have? Countless moral, ethical and legal arguments are raised.

For now, the vast majority of countries are unable to authorise the technology; the cultural lag is simply too great. Just as stem cells were controversial in the USA during the early 2000s, the creation of synthetic humans represents science advancing faster than many people are willing to accept.

However, a small number of countries - notably China - secretly push ahead with the project. Test subjects are successfully created, then made to take part in biotechnology experiments. Although hidden from public view, rumours begin to emerge of horrific abuses.*

 

© Madartists | Dreamstime.com

 

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2057

Computers reach another milestone

Individual PCs of today have AI systems equivalent to all of the human brains which ever existed on Earth.* This is a result of Moore's Law - the trend in computer processing power which has been increasing exponentially for over a century.

Computers are becoming so powerful that many high-level tasks in business and government are being handed over directly to them. For years, software had lagged behind hardware in development, which impeded the spread of AI, but this is no longer the case. Ever more sophisticated programs have begun to create a chain reaction of self improvement cycles. This has led to an "intelligence explosion", with some of the biggest political decisions on the world stage now being influenced by sentient machines.

Of course, there are controls and regulations in place to guide these actions (to prevent the use of nuclear missiles for example). Nevertheless, it is becoming obvious to everyone by now that machines are quite literally taking over the world.

 

© Cammeraydave | Dreamstime.com

 

 

Handheld MRI scanners

The ability to scan, analyse and diagnose the body has taken a huge leap forward by now. Hi-res, 3D imaging of internal structures and brain activity is now possible using real-time video rather than static photos. This can be accomplished with devices no bigger than a camera.*

In the early 2000s, these machines were so bulky that they filled whole rooms.* Scans typically required half an hour or longer to create. They were also highly expensive: upwards of a million dollars for a state-of-the-art model, with each individual scan costing hundreds of dollars.

A new generation of machines began to evolve, based on supersensitive atomic magnetometers, able to detect the tiniest magnetic fields. These replaced the huge doughnut-shaped magnets that had been used in the past. By the late 2050s, MRI scans had become as quick and easy as taking a photograph, with a hundredfold decrease in cost.* Healthcare programs in developing countries would benefit particularly from this.

 

Credit: JKB, Berlin

 

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2058

Construction of a radio telescope on the Moon*

The telescope is 100m wide and located on the Moon's far side, giving it a stable platform with slow rotation rate (0.5 arcsec/sec), beyond the interference of Earth's atmosphere and cluttered radio background.* This provides astronomical images with a clarity unmatched by any observatory on Earth or in space. Individual stars, billions of light years away, can be seen assembling into the first galaxies.

The telescope is situated within an impact crater. Both it and the surrounding infrastructure are built using a mixture of epoxy, self-assembling carbon nanotubes and material from the Moon itself - drastically reducing costs.*

 

Credit: NASA

 

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2059

Mars has a permanent human presence by now

By the end of this decade, a permanent team of scientists is present on Mars. They number around a dozen and comprise a highly international mix of people. Some will be stationed here for so long, they will eventually come to consider it their permanent home.*

The first civilian tourist has also arrived. Travel to Mars was made cheaper, faster and easier thanks to the development of nuclear pulse propulsion. This cut journey times to just a few weeks.*

The base will soon be expanded with new facilities including a larger power plant, mining equipment, nanofabricators, farms and greenhouses.* Vehicles are also being supplied to improve the astronauts' mobility, allowing them to roam hundreds of miles from the base. Additional bases are already being planned, to accomodate larger teams of scientists, as well as corporate interests.

The habitat modules are constructed partially underground, to give protection from the ultraviolet glare of the Sun. Meanwhile, radiation-absorbing materials based on advanced nanotechnology are used in spacesuits, as well as on the exterior of the vehicles. These same materials have special filters to block even the tiniest particles of dust, giving long term protection against the environment outside.

All of the above is providing the critical mass needed for self-sufficiency. Operations will soon be conducted entirely independent of Earth.

In the coming years, the first children will be born on Mars.

 

Source: NASA

 

 

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