2050-2059 Contents

2050 - The World in 2050 | 45% of the Amazon rainforest has been destroyed | Automobiles of today | Continent-wide "supergrids" provide much of the world's energy needs | One in five Europeans is a Muslim

2053 - Moore's Law reaches stunning new levels | Genetically engineered "designer babies" for the rich

2055 - Traditional media have fragmented and diversified

2055-2059 - Global population plateaus at 9 billion

2057 - Computers reach another milestone | Handheld MRI scanners

2059 - Mars population reaches 100

 

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2050

The World in 2050

The main players in the world today are the USA, China, the EU, India, Japan, Russia and Brazil (in that order*). For China and India, the immense population of these two nations means that, per capita, their incomes remain relatively low. Nevertheless, they now wield huge economic influence.

 

© Luca Oleastri | Dreamstime.com

 

The frantic pace of globalisation has continued. Intercultural connection is resulting in white caucasians gradually becoming a minority in the West. The average person now has a mixed-race appearance with light brown or heavily tanned skin.

Radical Islam and its resentment of the West continues to produce new generations of Jihadists. At least one terrorist nuclear attack on a major world city has been carried out by now. This occurs in the form of a well-planned "dirty bomb" attack on a financial district. Large amounts of nuclear material had been missing from Russia since the early 1990s, and some of this inevitably fell into the wrong hands. Being orders of magnitude greater than 9/11, the effects of the attack leave a deep psychological scar on many people alive today, and fuel much paranoia and suspicion between nations, in addition to throwing the world's economy into turmoil for several years.

Despite this tension, great progress has been made in cooperating on issues of the environment. Carbon emissions have fallen substantially compared with 1990 levels - thanks to advanced nanotechnology, across-the-board improvements in energy efficiency and power conservation, widespread deployment of solar, wind and wave power, as well as 4th generation nuclear power. The depletion of oil reserves has played a part too. Fusion power is also becoming available now and is being adopted by most of the leading nations. Orbital solar power is another industry seeing major growth around this time.

However, the delayed reaction of carbon emissions from previous decades is continuing to affect weather patterns and climate stability, as is the ongoing destruction of the Earth's rainforests. Sea levels have risen over half a metre by now and are beginning to affect much of the world's coastal real estate. Many countries are now turning to large-scale carbon sequestration as a way of reversing the damage done.

Space travel has taken a big leap forward by this time, with greatly reduced launch costs allowing a much greater frequency of flights.* Substantially heavier payloads can also be lifted into orbit. Space tourism is becoming relatively commonplace, with even middle-income citizens enjoying orbital flights. For the super-rich, lunar orbits and even brief excursions to the Moon's surface are becoming possible.

Progress is being made with nuclear pulse propulsion, bringing the manned exploration of the outer solar system closer to reality. The first permanent scientific station is located on Mars now, with plans underway to expand it. Meanwhile, serious efforts are being made in developing the first space elevator, which will be anchored in Australia. Commercial asteroid mining is being studied as a long term option by the US, China, Japan and the EU.

The largest space-based telescopes of today are capable of directly viewing extrasolar planets in detail and establishing facts about their geology. Astronomers discover that terrestrial-sized planets are more commonplace than previously thought - but most of these worlds are decidedly un-Earthlike, with hellish environments, wildly elliptical orbits and/or dangerous levels of radiation.

 

 

45% of the Amazon rainforest has been destroyed

This is largely due to a lack of enforcement in the so-called protected areas. Political support from organisations of farmers has also diminished.

The government sent army troups into regions of illegal deforestation, but the numbers of soldiers were simply too small, and the Amazon rainforest too vast, to have much impact. Corruption amongst government personnel was also a factor.

Droughts caused by global warming have also contributed to the gradual decline of the rainforest, with many areas of jungle turned into virtual deserts.

 

 

As a result, an extra 30 billion tons of carbon have been added to the atmosphere. Although the clean energy sources described earlier have offset this, it can't save the many thousands of species of plant and animal life which depend on the rainforest for survival. A huge amount of biodiversity is lost during this time. Desperate efforts are made by non-profit organisations to obtain DNA samples, in the hope of resurrecting these species at some point in the future.

 

Above: A red-eyed tree frog

 

 

Automobiles of today

Soaring living costs - along with exhorbitant taxes and measures relating to the environment - have led to cars and other vehicles evolving into smaller, cheaper, more energy-efficient designs.

More people than ever before are choosing to live and work alone; another factor which has led to these lighter and more compact vehicles, many of which carry no more than one or two passengers.

Nearly all cars of today are computer-controlled, while traffic flow and road management issues are handled by advanced networks of AI. The resulting fall in congestion has boosted some economies by tens of billions of dollars.

The inherent safety of being controlled by machine, rather than human hands, allows for much greater speed of travel: over 200mph on some motorways. Even when crashes do occur, which is extraordinarily rare, the built-in safety features and toughened materials (including the use of carbon nanotubes) means that fatalaties are becoming virtually non-existent.

Meanwhile, a number of the largest automakers are conducting long term research into hovering/flying vehicles, based on existing military technology.

 

A typical mid-range car of 2050.

 

 

Continent-wide "supergrids" provide much of the world's energy needs

The need for reliable, clean, cost-effective energy has led to the creation of electrical "supergrids" across much of the world.* These allow nations to share power from abundant green sources and distribute it to those regions most in need. By cooperating in this way, it is possible to substantially reduce waste and to optimise power supplies on a continent-wide scale, at all times of the year.

For instance, winter gales in the North Sea can provide a surplus of wind power, which is complemented by the summer winds of Morocco and Egypt. Meanwhile, solar panels in northern Africa generate three times the electricity compared with the same panels in northern Europe, due to the greater intensity of sunlight. Up to 100 GW of power is being supplied from Africa to Europe in this way.*

Similar large-scale infrastructure is now in place throughout America, Asia and other parts of the world.

Long distance transmission technology has seen major advances over the decades. Each country is connected to the grid using high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission, instead of traditional alternating current (AC) lines. This results in far greater efficiency, since DC lines have much lower electrical losses over long distances.

 

Source: Desertec Foundation

 

 

One in five Europeans is a Muslim

At the start of this century, less than 5% of the EU's population was Muslim. By the early 2050s, this figure has risen to over 20% - due to a combination of soaring immigration from Muslim countries and record low birth rates among Europe's indigenous population.*

Britain, Spain and Holland have an even higher percentage. These countries, in particular, are going through significant changes to their culture, education, housing, economic and foreign policies. This is creating a great deal of social unrest.*

This demographic sea change will continue, with some EU countries becoming majority Muslim by 2100.

 

© Monkey Business Images | Dreamstime.com

 

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2053

Moore's Law reaches stunning new levels

Due to the exponential growth in computing power, individual desktop PCs of today have AI systems equivalent to all of the human brains on Earth, combined.

It is becoming difficult to distinguish human from machine intelligence, with online services now host to entities of astonishing realism and interactivity. Many programs are in fact merging with human intelligence, as the drive towards brain-computer links increases, fueled by the need for hyperfast exchange of information. A person today often has a number of AI assistants, which serve as virtual extensions of their self - allowing them to interact in more than one place at once. These "aliases" are ubiquitous in some professions. They are now an essential tool in the stock market, for example, and other time-critical roles.

With such raw computational power available, the consumer market has been revolutionised. Computer games today provide fantastically lifelike simulations. With deep levels of interaction - including tactile and other sensory feedback - Virtual Reality has replaced the old Internet entirely, for most people.

Although full immersion VR has been available for a while now, recent advances in AI have led to wholly convincing Matrix-style worlds and entire societies forming in cyberspace, with many in the developed world spending their entire leisure time engaged in them. Mounting stresses from the outside world have also served to increase demand for this form of recreation; as a means of escaping reality itself.

 

Credit: Ray Kurzweil

 

 

Genetically engineered "designer babies" for the rich

The ability to manipulate DNA has come a long way since its discovery in 1953. A century on, wealthy parents now have the option of creating "perfect" babies in the laboratory. This is done by picking and choosing their best hereditary traits. Gender, height, skin, hair and eye colour - along with hundreds of other characteristics - can be programmed into the embryo prior to birth. The embryo is then grown in an artificial uterus.*

The most advanced (and controversial) techniques involve manipulating the brain to improve the child's intelligence, behaviour and personality. Many conservative and religious groups decry what they see as the commercialisation of the human body.

 

© Oxlock | Dreamstime.com

 

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2055

Traditional media have fragmented and diversified

By now, traditional Western news corporations no longer exist. News gathering, analysis and distribution has instead fragmented - shifting to millions of creative individuals, bloggers, citizen journalists and small-scale enterprises. Each of these works cooperatively and seamlessly, utilising a "global commons" of instantly shared knowledge and freely available resources. This includes information retrieval not only from cyberspace but also the real world; embedded in everything from webcams and personal digital devices, to orbiting satellites, robots, vehicles, roads, street lamps, buildings, stadia and other public places.

Even people themselves have become a part of this collection process. Bionic eye implants (for example) can relay data and footage on the spot, in real time, from those willing to participate.

Traditional Western TV channels have largely disappeared, replaced by unique "personalised" web channels, covering practically any subject or combination of subjects imaginable. These are filtered and customised to the exact tastes and requirements of the individual and are viewable anywhere, at anytime. They can be highly interactive and are often experienced in virtual reality settings, rather than on a screen. This is especially true of movies, many of which have non-linear plotlines allowing the viewer to influence the outcome themselves, or even to become characters within the film.

Mass advertising, too, has undergone a revolution in Western societies. Some of the oldest outdoor media still exist - such as posters, billboards and leaflets - which continue to survive in holographic and other forms. However, online web and televisual product/service information is now accessed almost entirely from on-demand, advanced customer feedback networks along with automated, semantic web assistants. Together these can provide instant, factual and trustworthy information on a highly personalised level: automatically filtering any marketing bias or corporate propaganda which might have influenced a consumer in the past.

Despite the increased choice and empowerment, one major consequence of this fragmentation (a trend which began in the 1980s) has been increased isolation of the individual. A decrease in the shared experience of media has led to a further decline in Western family and community life.

Poorer nations are still reliant on traditional forms of media gathering and information dissemination. However, in the decades to come, many of them will begin to make the transition too - thanks to exponential trends in price performance and improved access to web technology.

 

© Ken Toh | Dreamstime.com

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2055-2059

Global population plateaus at 9 billion

The global population has reached over 9 billion now.* The population is also getting older, putting a huge strain on government welfare systems, labour supply and employment. Nearly a quarter of the planet is aged over 60 now - and with so many breakthroughs in medicine, this trend will only continue.

As has long been the case, most of the population growth has occurred in the developing world. However, better education - along with improved access to contraception and other birth control methods - is having a significant effect on reducing the number of children per couple.

The world's population is therefore beginning to level off and plateau.

Damage inflicted by climate change is also having an effect now, with vast numbers killed by drought, disease, lack of resources, and various ongoing wars. The humanitarian crises of past decades are beginning to look modest by comparison, as whole swathes of Africa are now becoming essentially uninhabitable. Much of the Middle East, too, is facing complete collapse.

 

© Pac | Dreamstime.com

 

By the end of the century, there will be a tenfold increase in extreme droughts,* making agriculture impossible for much of the region. In other parts of the globe, the reverse is happening - intense tropical storms have inundated many cities. All over the world, there are people being caught up in resource wars and other conflicts. Enormous shantytowns begin to form in some regions, as tens of millions are displaced. Poverty and crime are rife in Africa, South America, and parts of southern Asia. Many of these places are so destitute that they are being reclassified as "fourth world" countries.

Pollution has also contributed to huge numbers of deaths - especially in Asia - with many millions dying of lung disease and other disorders.

Over two-thirds of people live in urban areas by this time,* and there are vast, sprawling megacities in all corners of the globe. In the very densest parts of the developed world, some of the tallest skyscrapers reach several kilometres in height, are occupied by millions of people, and are effectively becoming cities in their own right with self-sufficient energy and food production. Many residents within these gleaming towers spend almost their whole lives in these buildings, with little need or want to venture outside.

The population of the USA has reached nearly 450 million now (up from 303 million in 2008), with Hispanics more than doubling their share of the population to 29%, and Asians going from 5% to 9%. Whites who are not Hispanic have become a minority, with their share dropping to 47%. They made up 85% of the population in 1960.* Due to climate change, most of the population growth has occured in the north-eastern states, which have better access to water and are generally more stable. California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas have seen massive declines in wealth and influence.

 

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2057

Computers reach another milestone

Individual PCs of today have AI systems equivalent to all of the human brains which ever existed on Earth.* This is a result of Moore's Law - the trend in computer processing power which has been increasing exponentially for over a century.

Computers are becoming so powerful that many high-level tasks in business and government are being handed over directly to them. For years, software had lagged behind hardware in development, which impeded the spread of AI, but this is no longer the case. Ever more sophisticated programs have begun to create a chain reaction of self improvement cycles. This has led to an "intelligence explosion", with some of the biggest political decisions on the world stage now being influenced by sentient machines.

Of course, there are controls and regulations in place to guide these actions (to prevent the use of nuclear missiles for example). Nevertheless, it is becoming obvious to everyone by now that machines are quite literally taking over the world.

 

© Cammeraydave | Dreamstime.com

 

 

Handheld MRI scanners

The ability to scan, analyse and diagnose the body has taken a huge leap forward by now. Hi-res, 3D imaging of internal structures and brain activity is now possible using real-time video rather than static photos. This can be accomplished with devices no bigger than a camera.*

In the early 2000s, these machines were so bulky that they filled whole rooms.* Scans typically required half an hour or longer to create. They were also highly expensive: upwards of a million dollars for a state-of-the-art model, with each individual scan costing hundreds of dollars.

A new generation of machines began to evolve, based on supersensitive atomic magnetometers, able to detect the tiniest magnetic fields. These replaced the huge doughnut-shaped magnets that had been used in the past. By the late 2050s, MRI scans had become as quick and easy as taking a photograph, with a hundredfold decrease in cost.* Healthcare programs in developing countries would benefit particularly from this.

 

Image credit: JKB, Berlin

 

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2059

Mars population reaches 100

Three decades after the first manned landing, large teams of scientists are now present on Mars. They number over a hundred and comprise a highly international mix of people. Many have spent so much time on the Red Planet that they are beginning to consider it their permanent home.*

The first civilian tourists have also arrived. Travel to Mars was made cheaper, faster and more efficient thanks to the development of nuclear pulse propulsion. This cut journey times to just a few weeks.*

The primary base – established earlier in the decade – is being expanded with new facilities including a solar power plant, mining equipment, nanofabricators, farms and greenhouses.* Additional bases are being planned too, in order to accommodate the growing population. New vehicles have also been supplied to improve the astronauts' mobility, allowing them to roam hundreds of miles from the base.

The habitat modules are constructed partially underground, to give protection from the ultraviolet glare of the Sun. Meanwhile, radiation-absorbing materials based on advanced nanotechnology are used in spacesuits, as well as on the exterior of the vehicles. These same materials have special filters to block even the tiniest particles of dust, giving long term protection against the environment outside.

All of the above has provided the critical mass needed for self-sufficiency. From this point onward, operations can be conducted entirely independently of Earth.

In the coming years, the first children will be born on Mars.

 

Source: NASA

 

 

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