20th October 2013

Large asteroid could impact Earth in 2032

Ukrainian astronomers at the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory have identified a 410 m (1345 ft) asteroid with a small chance of hitting Earth on 26th August, 2032.

The asteroid has been named 2013 TV135. It was discovered on 12th October by astronomer Gennady Borisov using a custom 0.2 m (7.9 in) telescope. Based on early observations, this rock has a 1 in 14,000 chance of impacting Earth – though NASA expects these odds to be stretched further as more data becomes available, so it probably isn't worth including on our timeline.

However, if such an impact did occur, it could be devastating. Given the mass and velocity, its kinetic energy would be equivalent to over 2,400 megatons of TNT. This is about 50 times the energy of Russia's 50 Mt Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear detonation in history.

While its chances of hitting us might be low, this discovery is an important reminder that we need to remain vigilant when it comes to these asteroids. The number of confirmed near-Earth objects recently passed the 10,000 mark and there are possibly 10 times that many still waiting to be found.

Two asteroids with significantly greater odds are 2007 VK184 – due for a close approach in 2048 – and 1950 DA which is approaching our vicinity in 2880. Earlier this year, a 20 metre rock impacted Chelyabinsk in Russia, injuring 1,200 people and causing an explosion bigger than Hiroshima. These objects present a genuine threat to our survival and we cannot afford to be complacent.

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