20th October 2014

Gay marriage in the United States is progressing faster than expected

Back in 2011, we predicted that same-sex marriage would be allowed in every part of the United States by 2024. At the time, some of our readers claimed this was unrealistic and the process would take considerably longer. We chose that year based on the number of states where it had already become legal projected onto a future trend, combined with a reference from Des Moines Register that seemed to agree with our forecast.

Only six states (plus the District of Columbia) permitted same-sex marriages in 2011. Since then, another 25 have legalised it, bringing the total to 31, which is now a clear majority of the 50 states. This year alone has seen 14 states passing new laws. From 6th-12th October 2014, the Supreme Court declined to hear cases on same-sex marriage appeals – thus legalising gay marriage in Virginia, Utah, Indiana, Oklahoma and Wisconsin. This action was followed by legalisation of same-sex marriage in Nevada, Colorado, West Virginia, Idaho, North Carolina and Alaska.

There are even more cases to follow. The Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals is now expected to rule on challenges to the denial of same-sex marriage in Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio and Tennessee. Public support has grown at an increasing pace since the 1990s. According to a recent Gallup poll, it now stands at 52%, with 43% against and 5% with no opinion. Support tends to be higher among the younger generations, with 69% of 18-34 year olds in favour and only 38% of those aged 55 or above.

Below is a graph showing the number of states where gay marriage has been legalised (green) and the original trend we predicted back in 2011 (red). Half of the remaining states lie in the southern Bible Belt, a traditional conservative stronghold (see this excellent map and slider from Pew Research). Nevertheless, it seems our prediction will need revising.

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