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The threat of bioterrorism is peaking Biotechnology is now sufficiently advanced, widespread and inexpensive that a small group of people - or even a single person - can threaten the survival of humanity. Desktop fabrication labs, genetic databases and AI software are becoming accessible to the public. These enable the rapid research and synthesis of DNA, for those with appropriate technical knowledge. Criminals have already begun to exploit this - providing access to drugs and other substances without prescriptions, for example (like offshore Internet pharmacies of earlier decades) - and now terrorists are making use of them too. In the past, government agencies were able to combat bioterrorism by restricting access to pathogens themselves. This was achieved by regulating the laboratory use of potentially deadly agents, such as the Ebola virus. However, the advent of DNA synthesis technology means that simply restricting access to the actual pathogen no longer provides the security it once did. Since the gene sequence is a "blueprint", i.e. a form of coded information, once an organism has been sequenced it can be synthesised without using culture samples or stock DNA. As synthesis technology has continued to advance, it has become cheap, more accessible and far easier to utilise. Like the personal computer revolution of the early 1980s, biotechnology is diffusing into mainsteam society. At the same time, the ongoing need for medical breakthroughs has necessitated a gradual easing of database regulations. Furthermore, the DNA sequences for certain pathogens - such as anthrax, botulism and smallpox - have already been available on the Internet, for decades. It's therefore become alarmingly easy to produce a new virus (possibly an even deadlier version of an existing one) using a relatively low level of knowledge and equipment. Another, more sinister consequence, is the ability to target specific races or genetic groups of people. One such "home made" bioweapon is unleashed around this time, with devastating results. There are substantial casualties worldwide.* The threat begins to subside in the 2030s, as new defensive technologies - such as nanobots - become available to the general population. These tiny devices, injected into the bloodstream, can be programmed to identify and eliminate harmful pathogens.
Some of Britain's most well-known animal species are going extinct Due to a combination of habitat loss, agricultural intensification, road accidents, pesticides, pollution and other human interference, some of Britain's most iconic and well-known animals are disappearing. This includes hedgehogs, red squirrels, cuckoos, brown hares, Scottish wildcats, natterjack toads, woodland grouse, red-necked phalaropes and turtle doves.*** Many species of butterfly have also declined drastically in numbers.*
Human brain simulations are becoming possible The exponential growth of computer processing power has made it possible to form accurate models of every part of the human brain.* Between 2000 and 2025, there is a millionfold increase in computational power, along with vastly improved scanning resolution and bandwidth. Until recently, only separate regions of the brain had been fully modelled - but scientists are now able to combine them into one giant, complete simulation. Like the Human Genome Project of the 1990s, there were many in the scientific community who doubted the brain could be mapped so quickly. Once again, they failed to account for the exponential growth of information technology (rather than linear).*
Medical nanobots are being developed Nano-scale robots - orders of magnitude smaller than earlier micro-sized versions - are being developed as part of efforts to improve healthcare. In some countries they have reached the human trial stage and will soon be approved by government. Utilised in medical research and treatments, their size will enable them to reach places in the body that were simply inaccessible before or too delicate for conventional instruments to operate on. In the coming years, the most important breakthroughs will be in the treatment of cancer. Using nanobots, it will be possible to detect tumours earlier than ever before and target them with far more precision. In the 2030s, over 90% of cancers will be cured as a result of this. Even patients who would previously have been classed as "terminally ill" will routinely be saved. Monitoring of heart conditions, neurological disorders and many other illnesses will also improve dramatically. Combined with enormous strides in stem cell research, this will create a new generation of medical treatments reaching a whole new level of sophistication and efficiency. The nanobots themselves are built on a molecule-by-molecule basis, via positionally-controlled diamond mechanosynthesis and diamondoid nanofactories. Each robot is capable of propelling itself using tiny motors and is equipped with microscopic sensing, guidance and communication devices.
China's
economy continues to boom
Some of the largest metropolitan areas - such as Hong Kong and Shenzhen - have actually begun to overlap and form "hyper cities", overtaking Tokyo in population and land area. Many of the world's tallest buildings can now be found in China, including a number of kilometre-high "supertalls". All of this has had a considerable impact on the price of steel and other materials, leading to cutbacks of many large-scale development projects in Europe, America and elsewhere. The rise of neighbouring India is adding to this. The West now has greatly reduced influence on setting the price of metals. Meanwhile, vast profits are being made by construction and mining firms, leading to many high profile takeovers and acquisitions. At the same time, record accident numbers during this time - as a result of so much construction activity - are leading to tighter regulations and improved safety in the industry. Better pay and working conditions for employees are being introduced. As China grows, its power requirements are soaring. The country has prepared for this, however, by strengthening relations with Central Asian countries and importing more oil and gas from them, especially Turkmenistan which has made significant new discoveries. China's entry into Central Asia was also partly motivated by the need to reduce its dependency on (a) the Middle East, and (b) the Malacca Strait for shipping oil from the Persian Gulf and Africa; this stretch of water had become increasingly vulnerable to pirate attacks, and was the subject of ongoing political tensions regarding its control. As well as strengthening its oil imports, substantial gains have been made from energy efficiency and conservation programmes, along with increased use of nuclear power. By 2025, China's nuclear power generating capacity is nearly 150 billion kilowatthours (khwh), passing that of both Canada and Russia.* In the coming years, this will increase still further, as 4th generation nuclear power plants become available. Environmental concerns have also led to greatly increased solar, wind and hydro-electric power.
Vertical
farms are appearing in cities
High-speed rail networks are being expanded in many countries Many countries are radically overhauling their rail transport infrastructure. In Spain, more than 10,000km of high-speed track has been laid, making it the most extensive network in the world. 90 percent of the country's population now live within 50 km of a bullet train station.* In Britain, the first phase of a major high-speed rail line is nearing completion. This will travel up the central spine of the country - connecting London with England's next largest city, Birmingham. It will eventually be expanded to Manchester and the north. Trains will be capable of reaching 250 mph, slashing previous journey times.* In Japan, Tokyo will soon be connected with Nagoya via superfast magnetic levitation trains. Tests conducted in previous decades showed that it was possible to build a railway tunnel in a straight route through the Southern Japanese Alps. The first generation of these trains already held the world speed record, at 581 km/h (or 361 mph); but recent advances in carriage design have pushed this still further, to speeds which are fast enough to compete with commercial airliners.* Many other countries are investing in high-speed rail during this time, due to its sheer speed and convenience, together with soaring fuel costs and environmental factors which have made car and air travel less attractive. Even the US - which for decades had neglected its rail network - is making big progress in this area.*
Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge A 15-year megaproject - costing over $200 billion - has seen the construction of two entire new cities, located at either ends of a 29 kilometre (18 mile) bridge. Dubbed the "Bridge of the Horns", this spans the southern mouth of the Red Sea, connecting Yemen (Middle East) to Djibouti (Africa). With support for cars, light rail and freight trains, this greatly facilitates the movement of people, trade and resources between the two continents.* Each of the hi-tech cities at either end of the bridge is powered almost entirely by renewable energy. Many other green technologies and sustainable development practices are utilised. As their population swells, they become major commercial, education and tourist hubs of the region. A highway is also built, linking them to Dubai.
Progress with longevity extension The potential for radical life extension is beginning to enter the public consciousness. Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice. This robust rejuvenation is a major step towards halting the ageing process in people, since mice and humans share similar DNA.* For those under the age of 50, there is now real and genuine hope of being able to live indefinitely. Though a permanent cure for humans is still many years away, a number of therapies are now in development which can greatly reduce the cell damage, mitochondrial mutations and other adverse effects of ageing. These temporary measures can be used to buy time for the more dramatic advances in the years ahead - creating a "bridge" to the next era of medical breakthroughs. This period sees the beginning of major public interest and awareness of the subject. At the same time, however, there is a great deal of opposition from religious institutions and conservative groups.
Stress and anxiety are reaching crisis levels By now, a multitude of external factors intruding into peoples' day-to-day lives has led to soaring levels of stress, anxiety and depression. In 2000, around one in four could expect to develop a form of mental illness. This figure has now become even worse. This is especially true of those living in high density urban centres. Rapid advances in technology and the Internet, rampant consumerism and advertising; the ever increasing work-related stresses, debts, living costs, bad diets, overcrowding and pollution - coupled with loneliness, alienation and loss of national identity - not to mention the constant scaremongering by media and government; the intensifying problems of climate change, peak oil and terrorism (plus a host of related security and surveillance measures), along with various health scares originating from abroad... the list goes on and on. Due to the ongoing energy crisis, frequent blackouts are occurring in many countries during this time, while fuel shortages are commonplace at petrol stations. Meanwhile, record heatwaves and dangerous levels of air pollution are making summers unbearable in some urban areas. In Europe, right-wing nationalist governments are on the rise due to the massive amount of immigration occurring from Africa, the Middle East and elsewhere. The combined impact of these many factors is having a serious impact on the mental health of citizens.*
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References 1 For a somewhat unscientific (but nevertheless interesting) perspective
on this, see The Doomsday Curve: 2 Hedgehogs may become extinct within 15 years, The Telegraph: 3 Red squirrels and hedgehogs 'may become extinct in 20 years', The Metro: 4 Turtle doves and partridges among wild birds in steep decline in Britain, The Guardian: 5 Three-quarters of UK butterfly species in decline, The Guardian: 6
The Singularity is Near, by Ray Kurzweil (2005) 7
China
to build 10 New Yorks by 2025, International Construction Review: 8
Timeline of the Chinese Nuclear Industry, 1970 to 2020, Energy
Information Administration: 9 An urban site of just 1.32 hectars would be capable of producing the same amount of food as 420 hectars (1052 acres) of traditional farming, and could feed tens of thousands of citizens. This increased efficiency would be achieved by stacking floors like a skyscraper, and utilising a tightly controlled growing environment with hydroponics and other technologies. 10
Trains in Spain signal the future, BBC.co.uk: 11
High Speed 2, Wikipedia: 12
Japanese Maglev, 500km/h, YouTube: 13
High-Speed Rail, Federal Railroad Administration: 14
Bridge of the Horns, Noor City Development Corporation: 15
Aubrey de Grey's Prediction for 2020, YouTube: 16
UK society 'increasingly fearful', BBC.co.uk: |
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