|
|
   |
2030 Global population is reaching crisis point Continued population growth - and industrialisation of emerging economies - is having a substantial impact on food, water and energy supplies.* In the early 2000s, there were six billion people on Earth. By 2030, there are an additional two billion, most of them from poor countries. Humanity's ecological footprint is such that it now requires the equivalent of two whole Earths to sustain itself. Farmland, fresh water and natural resources are becoming scarcer by the day. The extra one-third of human beings on the planet means that energy requirements have soared, at a time when fossil fuel supplies are in terminal decline. A series of conflicts has been unfolding in the Middle East, Asia and Africa, at times threatening to spill over into Europe. With America involved too, the world is teetering on the brink of a major global war. This situation has been exasperated by recent terrorist attacks on Western interests. There is the added issue of climate change, with CO2 levels now reaching 450 parts per million. There are signs that a tipping point has been reached, which is manifesting itself in the form of runaway environmental degradation. Nature's ecosystems are beginning to collapse on a scale rarely witnessed in Earth's history. The accelerating magnitude of these and other problems is leading to a rapid migration from traditional fossil fuels to renewable energy. Advances in nanotechnology have resulted in greatly improved solar power. In some countries, this has enabled photovoltaic materials to be added to almost every new building. Maglev wind power is beginning to replace traditional wind turbines, allowing for greater capacity in a smaller footprint. Energy supplies in general are becoming more localised and efficient, while power conservation measures are being taken more seriously. Another issue which governments have to contend with during this time is the ageing population, which has seen a doubling of retired persons since the year 2000. People are living longer, healthier lives. Huge budget increases have been made for state pensions, but the funding is spread over such a large number of people that the overall effect is a decreased income for the average senior citizen. Retirement ages are increasing: in America, Asia and most European countries, many employees are forced to work into their 70s. Stress levels for the average citizen have continued to increase, as the world adapts to these various crises.
The USA is declining as a world power A ballooning national debt, a declining manufacturing base, and an overstretched military, all greatly weakened the US economy in the early decades of the 21st century. This caused long term damage to the country's standing. Like all empires before it, the American one managed to overreach itself. The continued industrialisation of China and India has led to phenomenal growth in these and other Asian countries, with many millions being lifted out of poverty. Shanghai has eclipsed Wall Street as the leading financial centre. Despite these changes, the US still retains its super power status - but it won't be the only country holding such influence for much longer. What this means for geopolitical stability is the subject of much debate, but most economists agree that a group of superpowers rather than a single hyperpower will mean increased conflict.
The majority of new vehicles are plug-in electric, or hybrids The dwindling availability of crude oil supplies has led to major economic disruption.* Transport has been the sector most directly affected, with the cost of travel becoming one of the most important issues in the world today. As part of the recovery measures being enacted around the globe, a wholesale transition to alternative energy is taking place. Alongside this, a new generation of smaller and more efficient vehicles is emerging. The majority of new cars are now plug-in electric or hybrids, with charging points a common sight in towns and cities. Intense competition for this new market has produced a number of technological advances. Lithium-ion batteries - the single most expensive car component - have declined considerably in cost, as well as becoming lighter and faster to recharge. Driving ranges have also been extended, making them practical for long journeys.* Energy-induced consumer flight to electric and hybrid vehicles has occurred at growth rates comparable to the adoption of handheld cell phones.** They have proven especially popular in China, where the government has made sweeping upgrades to transport and infrastructure.
AI is widespread Despite the recent economic disruption, technology is continuing to accelerate exponentially. By 2030, the pace of change is so great that it seems as if an entire century of progress has already occurred in the first three decades of the 21st century.* Scientific breakthroughs appear to be happening with startling frequency now - especially in the fields of computing, nanotechnology, medicine and neuroscience.* Workplaces are becoming highly automated, with tremendous improvements in speed, productivity and efficiency. Ever-increasing use of portable, wireless devices has led to the evolution of near-paperless offices. Meanwhile, the need for hyperfast exchange of information has created enormous demand for video conferencing. This trend is reinforced by significant reductions in air travel, due to both spiralling fuel costs and environmental concerns. Many companies are downsizing their administrative departments and replacing them with AI. This is particularly true of call centres and other service-based roles, where customers often deal face-to-face with "virtual employees" based on automated software. Crude versions of these had been utilised as far back as the 1990s - activated by simple voice commands - but many are now being presented onscreen as fully conversant entities.
Though lacking much in the way of personality, these sentient programs talk with "perfect" voices and are very pleasant on the ears.* They have a multitude of menu options and can usually deal with almost any query - however specific or unusual - thanks to their advanced voice and facial recognition software, in combination with extremely powerful database systems. As competition increases, these virtual employees become a powerful marketing tool in the bid to provide the best possible customer service. In addition to mainstream companies, the adult entertainment industry gains a huge advantage from them, with enormous demand for their services. Research and development into artificial intelligence (and related hardware/software) increases greatly during this period. An added benefit of interacting with these virtual people is the elimination of caller queuing, since there is no need for physical staff anymore. With AI playing a stronger role in society, concerns begin to arise of a "technological singularity" - as forecast by Ray Kurzweil and others. These fears prove to be exaggerated for now, in a manner similar to the Millenium Bug.
AIDS, cancer and a number of other diseases are becoming curable The combination of stem cell research, synthetic genomics, nanotechnology and other breakthroughs has led to cures for a wide range of illnesses by now - including AIDS/HIV, the majority of cancers, motor neurone disease, arthritis and diabetes. Although Parkinson's and Alzheimer's have yet to be fully understood, dramatic progress is now being made thanks to reverse-engineering of the human brain.* The growth of information technology in medicine has played an enormous role here. Ongoing, exponential gains in the scale, capacity and price performance of computer hardware (doubling annually) have transformed the ability to scan, analyse and decode the human body. The tools to reprogram the information processes underlying biology are gaining a further boost from the growth of strong AI. This is being used to greatly accelerate research efforts. Automated software programs now combine the subtlety of humans with the speed, memory and knowledge sharing of non-biological intelligence.*
India becomes the most populous country on Earth Around this time, India overtakes China to become the most populous country in the world. By the middle of this decade it will be home to over 1.5 billion people. The gap between these two countries will continue to widen, with China's population actually declining from this point onwards. As part of a climate change deal, foreign investment within India has enabled the country to build more than a hundred gigawatts of solar power facilities: enough to supply 200 million people with clean energy.* Together with its growth as a major IT centre, this has further improved its social and economic standing. At the same time, however, the effects of climate change are beginning to take hold. Droughts are posing serious challenges to food and water production.
Full weather modeling is perfected Zettaflop-scale computing is now available which is a thousand times more powerful than computers of 2020 and a million times more powerful than those of 2010. One field seeing particular benefit during this time is meteorology. Weather forecasts can be generated with 99% accuracy over a two week period.* Satellites can map wind and rain patterns in real time at phenomenal resolution - from square kilometres in previous decades, down to square metres with today's technology. Global warming, climate modeling and sea level predictions can also be achieved with greater detail than ever before, offering greater certainty about the long-term outlook for the planet.
Orbital space junk is becoming a major problem for space flight Space junk - debris left in orbit from human activities - has been steadily building in low-Earth orbit for more than 70 years. It is made up of everything from spent rocket stages, to defunct satellites, to debris left over from accidental collisions. The size of space junk can reach up to several metres, but is most often miniscule particles such as metal shavings and paint flecks. Despite their small size, such pieces of debris often sustain speeds of over 17,000 mph - easily fast enough to deal significant damage to a spacecraft. Satellites, rockets and space stations, as well as astronauts conducting spacewalks, have all had to cope with the increasing damage caused by collisions with these particles.
One of the biggest issues with space junk is the fact that it grows exponentially. This trend, along with the increasing number of countries entering space, has made orbital collisions happen almost regularly in recent years. The newest space-faring nations have been particularly affected. Events similar to the 2009 collision of the US Iridium and Russian Kosmos satellites have raised fears of the so-called Kessler Syndrome. This scenario is where space junk reaches a critical mass, triggering a chain reaction of collisions until virtually every satellite and man-made object in an orbital band has been reduced to debris. Such an event could destroy the global economy and render future space travel almost impossible. By 2030, the amount of space junk in orbit has tripled, compared to 2011.* Countless millions of fragments can now be found at various levels of orbit. A new generation of shielding for spacecraft and rockets is being developed, along with tougher and more durable space suits for astronauts. This includes the use of "self-healing" nanotechnology materials, though expenses are too high to outfit everything. Larger chunks of debris have also been impacting on Earth itself more frequently. Though most land in the ocean (since the planet's surface is 70% covered by water), a few crash on land, necessitating early warning systems for people in the affected areas. Increased regulation has begun to mitigate the growth of space debris, while better shielding and repair technology has reduced the frequency of damage. Increased computing power and tracking systems are also helping to predict the path of debris and instruct spacecraft to avoid the most dangerous areas. Options to physically move debris are also now becoming feasible - including ground-based lasers that can push junk into decaying orbits so it burns up in the atmosphere. Despite this, space junk will remain an expensive problem for now. Real, permanent solutions will likely not be seen for a few more decades.
A new generation of military helicopters For many years, the helicopters used by the US Air force had been essentially anachronistic. Though continually upgraded with new technology, the underlying design of helicopters in the 2000s and 2010s was the same as it had been for decades. In America's modern wars, helicopters primarily served in transport, reconnaissance and supply roles. This remains true today. However, the Air Force is now finally implementing a new fleet, taking over from the aging Blackhawk and Chinook.** While aircraft are fielded from a variety of size classes, the most prominent additions are the Joint Multi-Role (JMR) rotorcraft and the Joint Heavy Lift (JHL) rotorcraft. The JMR rotorcraft is designed with a propulsion method similar to that of the V-22 Osprey of earlier decades. The tilt-rotor design allows for both vertical take-offs and forward thrust flight. It can sustain speeds of over 200mph, with a combat range of about 1,000 miles and maximum altitude of 6,000 feet.* Along with traditional combat operations, the JMR rotorcraft is used in a wide variety of roles including reconnaissance, search-and-rescue, medevac, transport, anti-submarine warfare and others. Production of the craft will continue throughout the 2030s, fully replacing the Black Hawk when it retires in 2038.
Alongside the JMR rotorcraft is the Joint Heavy Lift (JHL) rotorcraft, a major addition to the fleet. Utilising a similar tilt-rotor design, it is capable of speeds up to 290mph (when the engines are in the horizontal turboprop position), with a range of 600 miles, and is able to carry a payload of 25 tons. This makes it a viable alternative for the airforce's C-130J Super Hercules transport aircraft.
Both aircraft, along with the other models now entering service, are optionally-manned. The JMR in particular makes use of this - able to work in large, semi-autonomous squadrons. Onboard computers manage the data gathered from a myriad of sensors, keeping the aircraft in formation at safe distances while monitoring altitude and weather. For combat roles, the JMR may still use human pilots, but remote control is becoming more popular. In less complex missions, such as for transport, general flight instructions are usually entered into the flight-computer, allowing for essentially autonomous flight. The same is true for the Joint Heavy Lift rotorcraft. Internal sensors monitor for even the slightest damage. Repairs are regularly made in flight, often with self-healing materials. Ground repair is usually done with robots, making human intervention largely unnecessary.
Emerging job titles of today Some of the new job titles becoming widespread in 2030 include the following.*
2031 Much of Bangkok is being abandoned due to flooding Bangkok, with a population of over 12 million, has been sinking underwater for decades. By the early 2030s, it is facing a disaster of epic scale, with much of the city being abandoned.* This has occurred for various different reasons. First and foremost, the city is built on clay. When originally settled, the region was just swampy coastline, but today it is covered by skyscrapers, highways and urban development. The enormous weight of all this concrete and steel has been pushing down on the soft clay beneath, causing the soils to descend by up to 5.3cm per year. By 2010, part of the megalopolis was already under sea level, a trend that would only become worse in the following decades. The illegal tapping of groundwater has been another major factor. Many of the city's residents have been continuously pumping up groundwater - both for their own use and to sell as a commodity - removing a natural layer and resulting in further destabilisation of the soil. Rising sea levels due to global warming have been yet another factor, eroding the coastline at a rate of 4cm a year, while the increasing severity of monsoon rains has led to longer and more devastating floods. The explosive growth of Bangkok in recent decades (making it one of the fastest growing places in southeast Asia) has dealt a serious blow to the city's infrastructure. Areas of land that had in the early 20th century been used to absorb flood waters had vast suburbs and business districts built over them. Canals were filled in to make way for the rapid urbanisation of the Chao Praya River Delta. The weight of the city grew and grew, to the point where the soft soil it was built upon could simply no longer support it. By the early 2030s, large portions of the megalopolis are well below sea level. The government's response during this time has proven inadequate, a lack of clear policy doing little to help the overall situation,* while sea walls have been almost useless due to increasing erosion of the shore. The lowering of the city, combined with rising sea levels (over 20cm higher than in 2000), has resulted in whole districts of Bangkok being permanently abandoned. Over a million buildings, the majority residential, are rendered uninhabitable, forcing their occupants to move further inland. Many areas which have yet to be fully claimed by the sea have also been evacuated, as the regularity of flooding proved too costly for many. Shantytowns and refugee camps are forming outside the city, while the government struggles to adjust as the capital sinks. Thailand as a whole is going through a period of almost unimaginable stress at this time, a result of such huge population displacement. The political, economic and social upheaval in the region is having a significant impact on global GDP. Efforts are underway to save Bangkok's numerous historical monuments and artifacts, with some temples being moved inland and reconstructed in their entirety. Due to the scale of this disaster, however, much is lost. In the coming years, the situation for Bangkok will only worsen as more and more of the city is permanently flooded. By the end of this century, the entire city will be abandoned.*
Web 4.0 is transforming the Internet landscape Further convergence of the online and physical world has led to the emergence of "Web 4.0" - the next generation of internet. Semantic analyzing programs, having evolved into forms of AI, now perform a huge range of automated tasks for business, government and consumers. Running on massively parallel networks, these applications hunt for textual and visual data - combining the most subtle capabilities of humans (such as pattern recognition) with ways in which machines are already vastly superior (such as speed and memory).* In addition to serving as highly advanced search engines, they are playing a major function in the real world - gathering information from the array of sensors, cameras and other tracking devices now present in the environment, on vehicles, and even on people themselves. Although privacy and civil liberties issues are being raised, this new generation of IT promises to bring enormous benefits to society. Crimes are faster and easier to solve thanks to these intelligent virtual agents; transport and logistics are smoother and more efficient; resources can be managed and distributed more accurately. In addition, practically every physical document in existence has now been digitally encoded, backed up and archived online. This includes full copies of all books, journals, manuscripts and other literature ever published – forming a complete repository of human knowledge going back thousands of years. These documents can be retrieved and analysed using real-time speech commands, translated from any of the world's 6,000 languages and accessed via 3D holographic imaging. Web 4.0 is also democratising the Internet more than ever before. News agencies are finding themselves increasingly outmoded by bloggers and other social media when it comes to speed and accuracy of information.
Stem cell pharmacies are commonplace Stem cell pharmacies are now a common sight on high streets. These offer walk-in diagnosis, stem-cell collection and banking services for use in future medical crises. Cheap, personalised and targeted treatments are available for the rapid regeneration of body parts and organs.*
Married couples are a minority By now, marriage in the West has been reduced to a lifestyle choice enjoyed by a minority, rather than an essential institution of society. In the UK, for example, the married population has shuink from almost 50% of adults in 2009, to just 41% now.* This trend began in the 1980s. Increasing pressures of work and money, together with the general stresses of the outside world (geopolitical, social and economic), are putting an ever-greater strain on couples. The decline of religious institutions has also played a part here. Unmarried partnerships no longer carry the stigma they once had. In addition, increasing numbers of people either working at home alone, or living with their parents, are making it difficult for some to meet potential partners. Another contributory factor is an explosion in the use of virtual reality - and other such technologies - which has led to increased isolation of the individual. People of all ages spend increasingly large amounts of their time engaged in highly immersive online experiences, requiring little or no interaction with the outside world. Of those who are married, the number of children per couple has declined in Western societies. Combined with increasing numbers of Muslim immigrants (who have higher numbers of children), this is significantly altering the demographic balance.
Chocolate has become a rare luxury By now, chocolate has become as rare and expensive as caviar, with even a single bar costing $10-15. Drought, soil depletion and diminishing harvests in Africa – where two-thirds of the world's cocoa is produced – have led to soaring prices. Cocoa is also competing for agricultural space with other commodities like palm oil, which is increasingly in demand for biofuels. Poor pay and working conditions have also been a factor. Many young farmers are now abandoning their lands and heading to the cities, in search of better and more highly-paid jobs.*
Manned mission to Mars The most long-overdue of all space missions - a manned trip to Mars - is finally undertaken during this time. A full six decades after the Apollo landings, technology is now greatly improved, particularly with regards to computing and telecommunications. A new heavy-lift launch vehicle has been developed, together with a smaller spacecraft known as the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). This is based on designs originally planned for the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle. The MPCV is capable of carrying four astronauts on 21-day missions. For journeys to Mars, which typically take several months, it is attached to other modules with longer-term consumables and support capabilities.*
China's space station is deorbited
4th
generation nuclear power
For these reasons, nuclear power becomes a lucrative industry from the 2030s onwards. China and India, in particular, take advantage of this enhanced power source. Solar and wind power has greater long term potential, however, due to the finite supply of uranium.
Terabit internet speeds are commonplace In addition to the benefits resulting from Web 4.0 (described earlier), connection speeds have also vastly improved. Bandwidth has been growing by roughly 50% each year. Many households in the developed world now have a terabit connection.* A significant number of these connections are now appearing on people themselves, in the form of wearable or implantable devices.
Peak phosphorus is reached Phosphorus is a basic building block of life, playing a vital role in the structural framework of DNA and RNA. Found in the cell membranes of animals and plants, it is essential for the transfer of energy. A main component of fertilisers, it helps plants to survive temperature changes, water changes and water deficiencies. This chemical is fundamental to the modern growing of crops. Phosphorus is a scarce and finite resource on Earth, and due to its non-gaseous environmental cycle it cannot be replaced by anything else. For a long time, this problem was largely overlooked by governments - most of whom took a complacent attitude, assuming that this mineral would be around for centuries or more. It was rarely viewed as a political issue, with most talk about the chemical being focussed on its polluting effects, rather than its potential scarcity. New studies in the 2000s and early 2010s, however, revealed that supplies were dwindling much faster than had previously been thought. This trend was being accelerated by emerging economies such as China and India - countries in which there was ever-increasing demand for meat and dairy products, which correspondingly required more and more phosphorus to produce. By 2033, worldwide production of phosphorus has peaked.** The immediate impact is an alarming increase in the price of food, as well as government nationalisation of phosphate reserves and the introduction of export tariffs. Some regions undergo famines, while others are forced to introduce emergency rationing. Food prices have also doubled due to climate change by now, adding further woe.* Richer nations are better prepared for this crisis - but nevertheless, many have experienced a significant period of readjustment with new methods being mandated and deployed to capture, store and recycle phosphorus. One of the most widely-used short-term innovations is the recycling of human urine (a phosphate-rich substance), although this is only a temporary solution.* The extracting of phosphorus from the seabed is another development being looked at, but presents major technological and financial challenges. With global population continuing to climb rapidly, the race is now on for longer-term fixes to provide genuine alternatives that can actually replace phosphorus.
Hypersonic airliners are entering service Following decades of research and development, a new generation of aeroplanes is entering commercial service.* These aircraft have a cruising speed of Mach 5 - or about 3,800 mph - enabling them to fly from Europe to Australia in less than four hours. With a range of more than 20,000km (12,000 miles) they can perform this journey without refuelling and have excellent subsonic and supersonic fuel efficiency, thus avoiding the problems inherent in earlier supersonic aircraft. Furthermore, and perhaps more importantly, they are environmentally friendly. Being powered by liquid hydrogen, their only waste products are water vapor and small amounts of nitrous oxide. Another advantage is that, while the 150 metre-long designs are bigger than previous jets, they are actually lighter than Boeing 747s and can utilise conventional runways. They have moderate take-off noise, too. In many ways, they are the spiritual successor of Concorde. They lack windows, however. The heat generated by traveling so fast makes it difficult to install windows that are not too heavy. One solution to this problem has been the installation of flat screen displays, showing images of the scene outside.
The final phase of Britain's HS2 rail link is completed High Speed 1 (HS1), also known as the Channel Tunnel Rail Link (CTRL), was a 108 km (67 mi) high-speed rail line, running from London to the British end of the Channel Tunnel. Completed in 2007, this route into continental Europe had only a single operator at the time - Eurostar, which provided trains to Paris, Brussels and seasonal destinations in southern France. Additional services became available from 2013 onwards, allowing direct high-speed rail from London to Frankfurt and Amsterdam. The development of high-speed rail sparked further interest and debate in Britain and was supported in principle by the three main political parties. Detailed plans were drawn up for a domestic network, linking together some of the nation's largest commuter cities. Though much controversy surrounded which cities should be served, as well as the environmental performance and impact,* the plans were finally approved in January 2012.* High Speed 2 (HS2) would connect London with the Midlands and the North of England. It would be developed by High Speed Two Ltd, a company established by the government. The planned route took the form of a "Y" shape, with a central trunk going from London to England's next largest city, Birmingham, which then forked into two spurs: one to Manchester and the other to Leeds. HS2 was built in stages, the London to Birmingham section being the first, with construction starting in 2016 and the first trains running by the mid-2020s. There would be no intermediate calling points: trains would travel directly between London and Birmingham at speeds of 400 km/h (250 mph), cutting the journey time from 1 hour 24 minutes to just 49 minutes. By 2033, the Manchester and Leeds branches are completed. Journey times from London to Manchester are reduced from 2 hours 8 minutes to 1 hour 20 minutes. Journeys from London to Leeds are reduced from 2 hours 20 minutes to 1 hour 20 minutes. Additional high-speed lines to Newcastle, Edinburgh and Glasgow are now being planned. The total cost of the project is over £32 bn ($49 bn), making it the UK's largest rail expansion in almost a century. Congestion is greatly relieved on other networks and there are significant economic benefits, with over a million new jobs created. As part of the plans, Euston station in London is fully redeveloped and there is also a connection running to Heathrow airport, one of the world's busiest aviation hubs.*
Holographic wall screens Conference halls, movie theatres, stadiums and other such environments are now utilising holographic wall screens. These are basically larger and more sophisticated versions of the TV projectors which have been in use since 2020. At this stage, they remain too expensive for mainstream use in the home (except for luxury apartments owned by the rich). However, they are a relatively common sight in public venues and workplaces. Times Square in New York, Piccadilly Circus in London, and Shibuya in Tokyo now feature spectacular advertisement displays, with graphics appearing to literally "jump out" of the screen.
IT's share of the US economy reaches 15% The trend in IT growth is shown below. This has been consistent since at least the 1970s and there are no signs of it slowing down. Major industries fueling this growth now include biotechnology, nanotechnology, leisure and entertainment (especially VR) and the development of AI. By the end of the century, over a quarter of America's GDP may be based on IT, as the demand for physical goods and services decreases, being replaced with virtual and digital goods and services online.
Lung disease in China has killed over 80 million by now This has resulted from the combined long term effects of (a) pollution; 20 of the 30 most polluted cities in the world are in China, (b) huge numbers of smokers; around 50% of adults, and (c) the widespread practice of burning wood or coal at home for cooking and heating; over 65% of the population.* China has begun switching to cleaner fuels by this time, however - and is implementing a new programme of taxation, better health education and tobacco advertising bans. This begins to reduce the proportion of deaths from lung disease from around this time onwards.
2034 Switzerland phases out nuclear energy After the Fukushima disaster in Japan, questions were raised about the long-term viability of nuclear power. Switzerland was among the countries to abandon this form of energy production, following public protests and a government review in 2011. The country’s five existing reactors – supplying about 40% of the country’s power – were allowed to continue operating, but were not replaced at the end of their life span. The last plant would be taken offline in 2034.*
Exabyte storage devices are available Data storage devices are now available with capacities of more than one exabyte (a million terabytes). This might seem excessive to observers from earlier decades. It has become necessary in today's world, however, due to the exponential growth of information technology. The day-to-day experiences of the average person now involve a stupendous amount of data collection - especially for those using neural interfaces or biotechnology implants.
2035 Turmoil in the Middle East The main driver of the Middle East economy - oil - has been declining for the past two decades and is now undergoing spectacular falls in production as the world adjusts to the reality of peak oil.* Following years of disruption and a race to avert catastrophe, viable alternatives for humanity's energy needs have become a realistic prospect. Algae biofuel is leading the way.** Solar, wind and other forms of renewable energy have also borne fruit. With nanotechnology being applied to panels, together with plummeting costs, solar energy has seen exponential uptake.* Energy storage systems have made progress alongside this, allowing solar to be used even at night time.* Electric cars are becoming widespread too, accounting for more than half of new vehicles on American roads.* No longer funded by the West's limitless demand for oil, the Middle East is collapsing into a largely poverty-ridden, internally feuding region. A "brain drain" ensues, as it falls back into relative insignificance. Much of Israel still lies in ruins, following a series of devastating conflicts - including the use of nuclear weapons. Several neighbouring countries have been engaged in an arms race that has further destabilised the region.
The Arctic is becoming ice-free during summer Due to global warming, the Arctic is now entirely free of ice during the month of September. A dramatic decline in coverage was observed during 2007 and this trend continued over the subsequent decades. The process was accelerated by the increasing surface area of water - being darker, this absorbed more of the Sun's heat than reflective white ice.
Self-driving vehicles are widespread In many developed countries, a new generation of self-driving vehicles is emerging. These use a combination of advanced GPS, AI and lane-changing technology to carry passengers to their destination automatically. As well as improving road safety, most of these cars are electric, or hybrid electric, reducing their impact on the environment.
Holographic recreations of dead people Throughout this time many dead celebrities, presidents and historical figures from the past are "resurrected" online, via the immense AI and supercomputing powers now available. This phenomenon is aided by the recent human brain simulations that have been made possible. Data mining of every single word ever spoken, written, or otherwise recorded by the person is undertaken, then analysed to recreate their character traits and emotions. This allows the construction of a highly accurate "shell" personality, surrounding a generic "core" program, run as an entirely independent AI simulation. The project sparks much controversy when first announced (especially among the religious community) but soon gains momentum, as a whole host of actors, musicians, artists, scientists, politicians and other individuals from the past are made available.* Advanced holographic techniques - combined with real-time audio-visual interaction - make them appear as lifelike as any other person alive in the world today. This form of computerised resurrection is soon extended and made possible for ordinary citizens wishing to preserve a loved one in digital form; though once again, it is more popular among the non-religious (and the process is generally less accurate, since the average person tends to leave behind less data, written words, video recordings and other information for use in constructing the programs). The technology involved is also expensive. It is used only by the rich for now - or in certain public locations such as museums, galleries and other venues.
Robots are dominating the battlefield* A variety of mobile, autonomous fighting machines are appearing on the battlefield now. Guided by advanced AI, they can aim with inhuman precision and come equipped with powerful sensors, GPS and thermal vision. They can be deployed for weeks or months at a time if necessary, without need for rest or maintenance. They have other advantages too - such as a complete lack of remorse or fear; no need for training, or retirement payments, or other such costs. These machines are being used in a wide variety of conflicts (especially food/energy/resource-related) where they spread terror and confusion through the ranks of their enemies. In fact, only the poorest or most desperate enemies are fielding human troops against this new and deadly force. This is giving the US an advantage in battlefield situations, allowing the country to regain some of the power and influence it has lost in previous decades - at least with regards to armed conflicts. The most advanced robot models come with self-repairing nanobot systems and immunity to EMP attacks. Some can even turn themselves invisible through the use of metamaterials.
Artificially-grown meat is available to consumers Advances in tissue engineering have made it possible to actually "grow" meat - using just single animal cells.* Having been in development for over 30 years, it has now reached the stage where it can be safely mass-produced and made available for the public.* The meat itself has a number of benefits. It is unusually pure, clean and healthy whilst retaining the original flavour, texture and appearance of traditional meat. It can also be produced without harm or cruelty to animals, being just a lump of cultivated cells. Perhaps most importantly, it has far less impact on the environment. It is also much cheaper than ordinary meat, which is especially beneficial to developing countries, many of which have seen their agricultural systems ravaged by climate change. Like GM crops and other such radical advances, a number of political and psychological hurdles stood in the way of its development. This meant its introduction to the mainstream was delayed by several years. However, the aforementioned crisis in farming - along with endorsements from animal welfare groups - gave added impetus and eventually pushed it through.
2035-2040 The final collapse of the European Union Rising global temperatures have begun to greatly increase both the frequency and severity of climate disasters. Torrential flooding, storm surges and extreme droughts have triggered a wave of unrest across Europe. The already fragile alliance has now split along north-south lines. Britain has withdrawn from the EU completely, becoming just about self-sufficient in food production, and is now sheltering behind its enhanced nuclear deterrent. A reconfigured "Northern Union" – which includes France, Benelux, Germany, Scandinavia and Poland – has finally managed to close its borders, after struggling to contain a surge in migration from the southern nations. The famine-stricken Mediterranean countries have been overrun by refugees from even harder-hit North African countries. Spain, Italy and Turkey have all acquired nuclear weapons and are seeking to enforce food sharing on the better-fed countries of northern Europe.*
2036 Alzheimer's disease is fully curable New treatments for Alzheimer's developed in the 2020s reduced the risk of acquiring the disease by more than half.* Thanks to pioneering efforts, a further decade of progress has yielded what may be considered an effective cure. Drawing from a myriad of long-term studies, researchers have identified the precise mechanisms and processes involved in the loss of neurons and synapses in the cerebral cortex and subcortical regions. Faulty genes can be "switched off" with a new generation of drugs, while the brain itself can be regenerated using stem cells.** This breakthrough was aided in part by reverse-engineering of the human brain, which provided researchers with a complete model of its neurological system down to the cellular level. Nanobots - first developed in 2025 - are now seeing widespread use in medical establishments and these machines can precisely target individual cells.** The ability to combat Alzheimer's is one of the great success stories of the 2030s. It comes at a time when dementia rates are soaring: with an ageing population, the number of cases was predicted to quadruple by 2050.*
Bionic eyes surpassing human vision are available to private wealthy individuals Although yet to become mainstream, bionic eye implants are now available that not only restore sight, but actually exceed human vision. This breakthrough has been made possible due to exponential advances in sensor technology, computing and neuroscience. The first generation of these implants began appearing in the late 2010s.* They were somewhat crude initially - providing only a pixelated view of the world and requiring the use of glasses frames for mounting the cameras. This latest generation, however, is such high resolution that it far exceeds the sensitivity of natural human eyes, and is physically indistinguishable from the latter. Gigapixels of resolution can be captured and transmitted to the optic nerve into the visual centres of the brain. Externally mounted cameras are no longer necessary - these have been miniaturised by a factor of thousands and incorporated within the eye itself, which is physically indistinguishable from a real one. Bionic eyes will soon begin to offer more than just ordinary sight. They will be capable of providing infrared vision, for instance, for improved health and safety in night-time situations. They will include video recording capabilities, serving as the ultimate in portable webcams. The convergence of Web 4.0 and augmented reality will enable users to receive detailed information on their surroundings, just by looking around them.* The cost of these implants is dropping substantially, thanks to exponential improvements in price performance. Costing tens of thousands of dollars in earlier decades, they will soon be available for less than $100.
Detailed probing and mapping of the Kuiper Belt is underway Advances in telescope power have revealed a plethora of new bodies in the Kuiper Belt - many rivalling Pluto in size. At the same time, a new generation of solar-sail technology is emerging. Spacecraft using this form of propulsion were first demonstrated in 2010. Much larger versions are now being deployed. Some have membranes extending hundreds of metres, with greatly improved thrust-to-mass ratio - up to 50 times higher than in previous designs. This is made possible through nanotechnology and space-based production of sail panels.* Following in the footsteps of New Horizons, a series of these probes is sent to the Kuiper Belt in the 2030s; a place that until now was largely unexplored. Close range studies are conducted on a number of the ancient, icy planetoids of this remote region.* With improving telescopes and longer-range probes, humanity is penetrating ever further into the depths of space. Astronomers are forming a highly detailed, accurate map of our Solar System as a whole.
2037 The U.S. Air Force introduces a new stealth bomber By 2037, the number of bombers in the US Air Force has dropped below the minimum requirement of 170.* This is due to a combination of attrition, changes in operating procedures and decommissioning of older aircraft. The B-52 has now been in service for 85 years - an unprecedented length of service for a military vehicle. The last of these planes will finally be retired soon. A next generation bomber, intended to serve as a stop-gap until more advanced designs were available, was introduced from 2018.* This is now being replaced by a new military aircraft known by the codename of "2037 Bomber".* The new bomber is the most advanced aircraft to ever fly. It has unparalleled stealth capabilities, a range that enables it to strike targets almost anywhere in the world, and a payload which includes nuclear capability. It is "manned optional", with most missions being remote-controlled, or even entirely automated. It is used in a number of resource wars during this time - giving the US an impressive tactical edge on the battlefield.
Quantum computers are widely available Most government agencies, universities and research institutes now have access to this revolutionary technology, which offers spectacular computing speed and power on a completely different scale to anything used before. These machines work by making direct use of quantum mechanical phenomena, such as superposition and entanglement, to perform operations on data. In addition to being trillions of times faster than earlier computers, they can be made absolutely secure, too. The machines' encryption techniques are virtually unbreakable, due to the almost unimaginable number of instructions being executed simultaneously.
2038 Older computers are at risk of experiencing major software malfunctions The Year 2038 problem (also known as "Y2K38" by analogy to the Y2K Millennium bug) gains considerable public and media attention this year. It affects programs written in the C programming language. These were relatively immune to the earlier Y2K problem, but suffer instead from the Year 2038 problem. They use a library of routines called the standard time library. This takes a stored, 32-bit integer and interprets the current value as the number of seconds which have passed since 00:00:00 UTC on Thursday, 1st January 1970. Because of the limited number of possible values that can be derived from this 32-bit integer, the farthest time that can be represented in this way is 03:14:07 UTC on Tuesday, 19th January 2038. Any times beyond this point will "wrap around" and be stored internally as a negative number, which these systems interpret as a date from 1901, rather than 2038. This is called integer overflow. For older computers that still use this system, major problems begin to arise with file systems and databases, due to erroneous calculations. Fortunately, most systems have been upgraded by now, and little overall damage is done.
Teleportation of complex organic molecules In the early 2000s, scientists were able to transfer particles of light (with zero mass) over short distances. Further experiments in quantum entanglement led to successful teleportation of the first complete atom. This was followed by the first molecules, consisting of multiple atoms. By the late 2030s, the first complex organic molecules such as DNA and proteins are being teleported.*
The FIFA World Cup trophy is replaced The current trophy has been in use since the 1974 World Cup. There is only space for 17 countries to be engraved on its base. In 2038, the final name plaque is filled in, and a replacement cup is commissioned with a new design. Like its predecessor, this is made of 5 kg (11 lb) of 18 carat (75%) gold.*
2039 Full immersion virtual reality Towards the end of this decade, computers are becoming sophisticated enough to bring full immersion virtual reality to the mainstream.* In other words, users now have the option of actually "being" in a video game and experiencing its graphics, audio and other effects (e.g. tactile feedback) in a manner that is practically indistinguishable from the real world. This stunning breakthrough has been achieved through exponential trends in computing over the previous decades - including a billionfold improvement in processing power and price performance, combined with a 100,000-fold shrinkage of components and circuitry.* For the first time, human brains are actually being merged with computer intelligence. Rather than viewing games on a screen, users now experience the game from within their own nervous systems, as though it were an extension of their mind. Players undergo a simple, minimally invasive procedure to insert nanobots (blood cell-sized devices) into their bodies. These microscopic machines are self-guided towards the neurons in their brain responsible for visual, auditory and other senses. Here, they remain in a dormant state, but in close proximity to the brain cells. When the user wishes to experience a simulated reality, the nanobots immediately move into place, suppressing all of the inputs coming from the real senses, and replacing them with signals corresponding to the virtual environment. If the user decides to move their limbs and muscles as they normally would, the nanobots again intercept these neurochemical signals - suppressing the "real world" limbs from moving, and instead causing their "virtual" limbs to move within the game. This means a user can be sitting in a fixed position, while experiencing a high degree of activity and movement.
Although most people are initially wary of these devices, they have been around in some form since at least 2025 (eg. for medical purposes) and years of testing, security and safety measures have gone into this latest generation. Detailed regulations are now in place which cover any possible eventuality. For example, a power cut means the nanobots simply detach from the neurons - automatically returning a user to the real world - while checks are constantly performed to ensure there is no danger of being "trapped" in a virtual environment. Furthermore, the machines are not permanent and can be removed from the body altogether if desired. In any case, it is practically impossible for them to damage nerve cells or cause any lasting damage, due to their small size and limited functionality. Over the next few years, many people come to accept them as a natural part of their bodies – just as bacteria and other small objects are part of their stomach, digestion and other internal processes. Full immersion VR isn't just limited to games. With such huge creative scope, it is being used for a whole range of applications now: from business to education, training, healthcare, engineering, design, media and entertainment. Tourism is being revolutionised, since people no longer have to travel great distances or spend large amounts of money to explore the sights and sounds of another location – they can simply go online. For this reason, a number of travel firms are going bust around this time, or else drastically changing their business models to account for this new medium.
Of course, that’s not to say these online holidays are intrinsically better than the real thing. Although on a different scale of technical wizardry compared to graphics of previous decades, they are still somewhat limited in their accuracy of towns and cities. At this stage, many of them lack sufficient AI, are often sparsely populated, and miss out vital details or subtle characteristics of foreign culture... things which make real-life travel such an enriching, worthwhile experience. Decades of refinement will be needed before VR is entirely convincing. Nevertheless, this new phenomenon is so profound in its depth of interactivity – as well as sheer convenience, accessibility and ease of use – that it presents a serious threat to old-line travel agencies. One way that the industry adapts to this is by offering more detailed, advanced and sophisticated holiday environments, for a fee. However, this becomes only a temporary solution, as certain users find a way to pirate these programs, which are then duplicated and shared online. The problem is exacerbated by groups collaborating to form their own free/open source programs, which combine the best elements from these and others, and are easy to customise by the casual user. In some cases, "hybrid" versions of holiday destinations are being created which offer wholly new, surreal and bizarrely dreamlike experiences. One such example might be a recreation of New York with a tropical coastline, populated by characters from Star Wars. Just as the internet led to a decline in the music industry, the same is now happening to the travel industry. From the 2040s onwards there is a massive decline in air travel and overseas holiday bookings. The effects of climate change and worsening environmental crises are also playing a part here. A growing number of citizens are choosing to stay at home, with most communication and interaction being done online. The same is true of businesses – especially with regard to meetings and conferences, which are increasingly being held in virtual settings. One area
of commerce with no such troubles is the adult entertainment industry.
Full immersion VR allows users to meet and interact with people in astonishingly
lifelike ways. This includes virtual recreations of glamorous celebrities
and film stars…
Universal translators are ubiquitous On-person devices that instantly translate speech, text or handwriting from any of the world's 6,000 languages are widespread by this time.* This includes contact lenses with Internet connections, capable of displaying subtitles in the wearer's field of vision.* Every website and virtual environment now has translation facilities too. This technology has the effect of speeding up many bureaucratic/administrative procedures in business and government – as well as improving trust and cooperation at both a national and individual level.
Nanotech fabrics are ubiquitous Nanotech fabrics are everywhere now. They are available for a huge range of clothing, footwear and accessories, some of which are remarkable in their design. For instance, many clothes can be programmed to change their molecular structure to alter their colour, texture or style. Others have self-cleaning abilities, with micro-thin layers of disinfectant to regulate germs and dirt. Others have more exotic properties. One such example is a material that can replicate the texture of geckos' feet. This allows people to stick to vertical surfaces, giving them Spiderman-like agility.* In addition to outdoor adventurers and climbers, a number of radical activists are making use of this. Eco-protesters for example are often seen on the news, scaling prominent buildings to unveil banners and placards. A number of government offices and corporate headquarters are being targetted in this way – raising fears of more serious incidents involving terrorists. Many companies are forced to improve their security measures. More advanced "chameleon"-style fabric is being utilised by special forces. This comes in the form of fully-enclosing suits which change colour to match the wearer’s environment, providing a near-perfect means of camouflage.*
Australia's national symbol, the koala, faces extinction By this date, the koala population in Australia has dwindled to almost nothing, due to the combined impacts of drought, disease, climate change and loss of natural habitat.*
US population reaches 400 million* This compares with 309 million for the year 2010. Most of the population growth has occured in urban areas.
Extreme heatwaves are commonplace in the US The previous five decades were all the hottest on record - each surpassing the last. Extreme heatwaves are now having a serious impact on agricultural yields and human health. This is a particular problem in the American West. From 2030 to 2039, most areas of Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico have at least seven summers equal to the hottest season ever recorded between 1951 and 1999. The hottest daily temperatures of the year from 1980 to 1999 have become twice as frequent. There are persistent, drier conditions around the country, with substantial reductions in soil moisture and an accompanying rise in forest fires.*
|
References 1
Averting a perfect storm of shortages, BBC: 2
Peak Oil - are we heading for collapse?, FutureTimeline blog: 3
"The lithium battery market is going to grow exponentially." 4
The electric car age just got a little closer, Foreign Policy: 5
Electric Cars Could Dominate Market by 2030, Marketing Charts: 6
The Singularity is Near, by Ray Kurzweil: 7
Various exponential trends can be seen here, clearly showing the phenomenal
rate of technological progress taking place. These charts are taken from
The Singularity is Near, by Ray Kurzweil: 8
Formula 'secret of perfect voice', BBC: 9 See 2025. 10
The
Singularity is Near, by Ray Kurzweil (2005) 11
India urged on climate change, BBC: 12 "NASA theorizes that a Zettaflop centric computer is required to accomplish full weather modeling, which could cover a two week time span accurately. Such systems won't see the light of day until 2030." 13 Ugly Truth of Space Junk: Orbital Debris Problem to Triple by 2030, Space.com: 14 Existing and Planned Helicopters in the Army's Fleet, Congressional Budget Office: 15 U.S. Army Moves On Next-Gen Helo, Aviation Week: 16 U.S. Army envisions the helicopter of the future, CNET: 17
Source: The
Foresight Network 18 Thailand, Sinking: Parts of Bangkok Could Be Underwater in 2030, TIME: 19 Bangkok at risk of sinking into the sea, The Guardian: 20 Bangkok is sinking, Global Post: 21
Web 4.0,Trip Down the Rabbit Hole or Brave New World?, zmogo.com: 22
Stem
cell 'pharmacies' in the high street in 20 years, predicts expert,
Daily Telegraph: 23
Married
couples to be minority within 20 years, Daily Telegraph: 24
"In
20 years, chocolate will be like caviar. It will become so rare and so
expensive that the average Joe just won't be able to afford it." 25
Nasa
picks deep-space astronaut ship, BBC: 26 See 2022. 27
Generation
IV reactor, Wikipedia: 28
Nielsen's
Law of Internet Bandwidth, Useit.com: 29 Peak Phosphorus: A Potential Food Security Crisis, Tariel Mórrígan, University of California: 30 A rock and a hard place: Peak phosphorus and the threat to our food security, The Soil Association: 31 Rising food prices increase squeeze on poor - Oxfam, BBC: 32 Scientists warn about food shortage in 2033, Schrödingers Katt (YouTube): 33
Reaction
Engines A2, Wikipedia: 34 High-Speed Rail Link Plans Build Up Steam, Sky News: 35 HS2: High-speed rail link 'being seriously considered', BBC: 36 High Speed 2, Wikipedia: 37
China
lung disease 'to kill 83m', BBC: 38
Switzerland
Decides on Nuclear Phase-Out, The New York Times: 39
Life
After the Oil Crash - Deal With Reality or Reality Will Deal With You: 40
Craig
Venter Has Algae Biofuel in Synthetic Genomics’ Pipeline, BioMarine: 41
Algae
Biofuel Could Replace Oil, Suite101: 42
'Nanotech
to solve global warming by 2028', Silicon.com: 43
MIT
Energy Storage Discovery Could Lead to ‘Unlimited’ Solar Power,
CleanTechnica: 44
House
panel wants half of U.S. cars electric by 2030, USA Today: 45
This has already begun - though in a somewhat crude form, without the
use of AI. See Lennon stars in TV laptop advert, BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/7801938.stm 46
Coming to the Battlefield: Stone-Cold Robot Killers, Washington
Post: 47
Scientists aim for lab-grown meat, BBC.co.uk: 48
Wired
(UK launch issue - May 2009): 49
Climate
Wars: The Fight for Survival as the World Overheats, by Gwynne Dyer 50 See 2026. 51
Institute
for Stem Cell and Regenerative Medicine (ISCRM), University of Washington: 52
Human
stem cells combat Alzheimer's, Machines Like Us: 53
"When
I was a student at MIT, we all shared one computer and it took up a whole
building. The computer in your cell phone today is a million times cheaper
and a thousand times more powerful. What now fits in your pocket, 25 years
from now will fit into a blood cell and will again be millions of times
more cost effective." 54
Nanobots
Flip Off Cancer Switch in Cells, TechNewsWorld: 55
Alzheimer's
disease to quadruple worldwide by 2050, PhysOrg: 56 See 2019. 57
Augmented
reality contact lens could create bionic eyes, theregoesdave.com: 58
Solar
sail - Investigated sail designs, Wikipedia: 59
"Solar
sails in coming decades will be used for increasingly complex missions,
even in the far reaches of the solar system." 60 B-3 Long Range Strike Platform, GlobalSecurity.org: 61 Next-Generation Bomber, Wikipedia: 62 2037 Bomber, Wikipedia: 63
Such a feat may be possible "within a few decades", according
to Michio Kaku (specialist in string field theory). 64
FIFA World Cup Trophy, Wikipedia: 65
Foreword to Virtual Humans, Kurzweilai.net: 66
Virtuality and reality 'to merge', BBC.co.uk: 67
Inventions that could become part of everyday life by 2039, lawdit.co.uk: 68
Dr. Michio Kaku: "The World in 2030", YouTube: 69
The "Octocamo" seen in the video game Metal Gear
Solid 4 shows how this technology might work. 70
Koalas 'extinct within 30 years' after chlamydia outbreak, The
Telegraph: 71
U.S. Population Projected to Hit 400 Million in 2039, prb.org: 72
Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in
the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds, Stanford News Service: |
| |
