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World
energy crisis* There are major conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, where millions die from starvation, war and civil disruption. Many countries in the West experience a decline in living standards - with oil rationing and conservation measures introduced by governments and substantial reductions in travel, tourism and aviation. The crisis plays out for nearly two decades, gradually being resolved by a switch to renewable energy and alternative fuel technologies. The transition is by no means a smooth one, however. By 2035, the geopolitical map of the Middle East is unrecognisable, while China has reaped enormous political and economic gains from the US.
Generation X is reshaping global politics As the new decade begins, a fresh generation of leaders and decision-makers is now emerging on the world stage. With the last of the Silent Generation passing away, and the Baby Boomers waning in their influence, the so-called "Generation X" is coming into power. Born between the late 1960s and early 1980s, Gen-Xers are more heterogeneous than previous groups: diverse in race, class, culture and ethnicity. They are more liberal and progressive than their parents,* with less respect for rules, authority and established policies. They are less likely to be religious. For most or all of their lives, they have grown up surrounded by computers – making them savvy and comfortable with technology, flexible and more open to new ideas. They have more concern for the environment, are more likely to believe in climate change and are generally more accepting of science. Angry at the social, political and economic legacy bequeathed to them, the Gen-Xers are using their newfound power to build a different kind of world. They are no longer willing to bow to the demands of the Baby Boomers - who many feel have robbed them of their future. They are also not willing to let the Millennials (Generation Y) get a free ride when it comes to paying their fair share.* From 2020 onwards, there is a shift of money and resources away from senior citizens and towards those in their middle years. Property and inheritance laws, pensions, retirement plans and a number of elderly benefits undergo significant changes, as Gen-Xers work to stem the gap between themselves and their parents. Banks and financial institutions are finally reformed this decade - though not without a fight, and not to the extent that many voters would prefer. However, there is now at least some focus on long term accountability, rather than short term profits and risk-taking. Employees gain more rights, freedoms and flexibility in the workplace, with offices becoming more casual and informal. Social media and other technologies continue to drive the spread of democracy around the world. Thanks to the Gen-Xers, many countries begin to relax their laws on private recreational drug use, gay marriage, prostitution, euthanasia and so on. Legalisation and taxation of cannabis adds significantly to government revenues whilst helping to lower crime rates. Scientific research and environmental protection are given higher priorities. These trends were emerging in any case, but are now being accelerated by the Gen-Xers.
Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide The number of Internet users has now reached almost 5 billion - equivalent to the entire world's population in 1987. This compares with 1.7 billion users in 2010 and only 360 million in 2000.* Vast numbers of people in developing countries now have access to the web, thanks to a combination of plummeting costs and exponential technology improvements. This includes laptops, smartphones and tablet devices that can be bought for only a few tens of dollars, together with explosive growth in mobile networks. Even some of the most remote populations on Earth can take advantage of the web thanks to the infrastructure now in place.
Broadband speeds have continued to accelerate. In the USA, a project known as the National Broadband Plan is coming to fruition. This gives nearly 100 million Americans access to home broadband speeds of at least 100 Mbps.* Connections of 1 Gbps are also present in the vast majority of schools, universities, libraries, hospitals and government buildings. Broadband is now available to essentially the entire population. By 2020, the USA has become one of the leaders in mobile innovation, with among the most extensive wireless networks of any country. There is a massive increase in the broadcasting of wireless Internet and broadband multimedia. In Australia, one of the world's most ambitious upgrades – the National Broadband Network – is nearing completion. Vast extensions to the fibre-optic cable networks are being undertaken, with the result that 93% of the population has access to 1 Gbps transfer speeds by 2021.* Australia rises to be one of the leading digital economies, with many new jobs and opportunities created. The remaining 7% of households are able to utilise two new satellites for a minimum speed of 12 Mbps. South Korea - one of the most technologically advanced places in Asia - has already had gigabit transfer speeds around the country since late 2012.* It has since strengthened its broadband network, upgrading it even further. China has also laid down a national broadband network, another step in its path to becoming a developed nation. The majority of developed and developing nations around the world now have greatly improved web access compared to what existed previously. However, there is still the problem of a "digital divide", with rural areas particularly affected. In the UK, for example, while more than half of users now have access to 100 Mbps or faster, around 10% of the population is limited to substantially slower connections.*
The 5G standard is released
Texting
by thinking Some of the higher end models feature glasses or visors, with displays built into the lenses. This allows completely hands-free texting, effectively creating a form of electronic telepathy. The process is rather slow at this stage - requiring a high degree of concentration. It is more of a novelty for now. However, advances in the coming years will enable smooth and fast interactions, revolutionising the world of communication.
Complex organ replacements grown from stem cells In the previous decade, it had already been possible to grow various tissues, bones and muscles using stem cells. The first complete synthetic organ transplant was achieved in 2011, when a replacement windpipe was given to a terminal cancer patient. This was followed by further breakthroughs as more complex body structures and systems began to be engineered. By 2020, a major landmark is reached, with scientists having fully characterised how every part of the heart works - enabling complete replacements for use in transplants.* The need for external donors is eliminated, and since the organ is genetically matched to the patient, there is no chance of rejection. This new treatment offers radical hope to millions of people affected by cardiovascular disease. Until now, around 15m people had died each year from heart-related conditions. The economic benefits are huge. A significant fraction of healthcare costs have been attributable to organ failure, the recurring treatments for chronic diseases and their subsequent complications. This new regenerative medicine effectively provides a cure, rather than ongoing treatment. Until now, direct healthcare costs of organ replacement and associated care had been $350 billion globally (about 8 percent of global healthcare spending). As well as the heart, various other organs are developed over the subsequent decade: lungs, livers, kidneys, spleens, stomachs and sexual organs all become available by 2030. Internal organ failure is gradually becoming a thing of the past; for those who can afford the treatments, at least. Combined with new vitrification techniques* (which allow organ banking without damage from ice crystal formation), this is a major breakthrough in longevity extension.
Ultra High Definition Television (4320p) is available in domestic homes After years of development, Ultra High Definition TV (also known as 4320p) is entering the home consumer market. This format has 16 times the resolution of HDTV.** It faces competition from another emerging technology - holographic television.
Holographic
TV is available
Breakthroughs in rewritable and erasable systems have made it possible
to mass-market the first truly holographic TV displays.*
This form of technology has been in development for nearly three decades.
One of the main problems encountered was that the displays required
a lengthy delay between each "rewrite" - making it impractical for televisual
displays. However, recent advances in power transfer have overcome this
problem, with displays now capable of running at 24 frames per second. Typical holographic screens of this period are relatively small. They
are also very expensive, and still viewed as a luxury item for now.
However, further refinement of this technology leads to bigger, more
powerful displays; while competition between the major vendors later
succeeds in bringing down costs, making them affordable to the majority
of people. The screens can be fixed to a wall (with the image writing lasers behind
the wall), or placed horizontally on a table (with all the components
underneath). Initially popular in Japan and the Far East, the displays rapidly find
their way to the rest of the world. Over the coming decades, perfection
of this technology will see entire rooms turned into holographic environments.
Sweden
becomes the first oil-free country
Hong Kong's Mass Transit Railway (MTR) has been significantly expanded From 2010 to 2020, the railway undergoes a series of major expansions in order to meet rising demand. Two of the first new links are the 3 km West Island Line, completed in 2014, and the 7 km South Island Line, finished in 2015. That same year, the 11 km Sha Tin to Central Link is completed, followed by a 6 km extension across the harbour completed in 2019. This extension makes up the new North-South Line of the MTR. Opening in 2016 is the Guangzhou-Shenzen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link. This cuts down travel time to Guangzhou and Beijing to 48 minutes and ten hours respectively. It also connects Hong Kong's MTR to the recently developed Pearl River Delta Megacity, now the largest metropolitan area in the world. This intercity line will greatly boost jobs and commerce in the south of China. Various other MTR extensions are opened later in the decade - including the Northern Link, which offers a major transportation corridor for the residents of western Hong Kong. By 2020, the MTR has a length of over 270 km.*
Completion of the Fehmarn Belt Fixed Link The Danish government approved the project by a large parliamentary majority in 2011. However, it required the passage of a Construction Act, along with further legislation in both countries that wasn't completed until 2013. With final approval, construction began in 2014, finishing in 2020. Precast concrete tunnel sections were utilised, with a rectangular cross-section about 40 metres wide and 10 metres high, containing four separate passageways (two for cars and two for trains), plus a small service passageway. The total cost of the project is €5.5 billion and it has a technical lifespan of 120 years.
Fehmarn Island was already connected by bridge with the German mainland, and Lolland was already connected by bridge with Zealand. Furthermore, Zealand was already connected with the Swedish coast, via the Øresund Bridge. However, there was no link between Fehmarn Island and Lolland until now. The Fehmarn Belt fixed link, therefore, provides a far more direct route from Germany to Sweden and Norway. Travel times between Scandinavia and continental Europe are in fact substantially reduced: the ferry transit that was required previously took 45 minutes (plus waiting time), but car drivers now require a mere 10 minutes, while train passengers can complete the journey in no more than 7 minutes. The duration of a train journey between Hamburg and Copenhagen is cut from around 4.5 to 3 hours.*
Public
smoking is banned across every US state
Glacier National Park and other regions are becoming ice-free By now, the Glacier National Park in Montana has become completely ice-free, the park's namesakes having disappeared as a result of global warming.
As early as 2020, therefore, the glaciers were gone, leaving behind only barren rock. Many cold water dependent plants and animals subsequently died out due to loss of habitat - including a number of rare species. Reduced seasonal melting of ice also affected stream flow during the dry summer and fall seasons, reducing water table levels and increasing the number of forest fires. This had the added effect of putting more carbon into the atmosphere. The loss of glaciers also reduced the aesthetic visual appeal of the region for visiting tourists. This process is being mirrored all over the world, with non-polar ice beginning to vanish from many prominent regions including the Andes, Alps, Himalayas and Kilimanjaro. Later this century, glacier loss from the Himalayas will have a devastating impact - destabilising much of the Indian subcontinent, including the nuclear-armed Pakistan. Floods and mudslides will be triggered by the initial melting. Afterwards, fewer and smaller glaciers will mean less run-off to rivers such as the Ganges that would normally provide fresh water for drinking, agricultural production and hydroelectric power generation. Given that the Mekong, Yangtze and Yellow rivers are affected too, this could mean water shortages for potentially two billion people.
BepiColombo arrives in orbit around Mercury
The European contribution, Mercury Planetary Orbiter (MPO), studies the surface and internal composition, while the Japanese portion, Mercury Magnetosphere Orbiter (MMO), analyses the magnetosphere and atmosphere. A new form of ion engine is used for the propulsion system.
Video
games with truly lifelike CGI This is raising a number of ethical issues - due to the sheer level of realism now available, combined with ongoing advances in AI technology. Meanwhile, Google Earth has become so advanced that users can browse and move around in a smooth, photographic-quality 3D environment with moving cars and day/night cycles.*
Smart
meters in every UK home Average bills are being reduced as a result, since the meters encourage changes in behaviour. The meters can also "talk" to domestic appliances such as refrigerators. If necessary, these can be made to switch on and off depending on the level of demand on the grid. Smart grids are also being introduced to manage flows of electricity more efficiently. These are capable of handling more volatile sources of energy (such as windfarms) and coping with micro-generation - consumers are increasingly using solar panels or heat pumps to generate their own electricity and sell it back to the grid.*
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References 1
When will the oil run out?, Guardian.co.uk: 2
Who Killed Economic Growth?, The Post Carbon Institute: 3 10 page report: 4 The Looming Gen X Global Revolution of 2020, The Huffington Post: 5
10 fool-proof predictions for the Internet in 2020, Network World: 6 The National Broadband Plan, Broadband.gov: 7 Corporate Plan 2011–2013, NBN Co: 8 Home Internet May Get Even Faster in South Korea, The New York Times: 9 UK faces superfast digital divide say network providers, BBC: 10 5G, Wikipedia: 11
Japan eyes 'mind-reading' devices, robots 'by 2020', AFP: 12
The Brain Twitter Interface, YouTube: 13
British team grows human heart valve from stem cells, Guardian.co.uk: 14
21st
Century Medicine - Organ preservation for transplantation, 21st Century
Medicine: 15
Sharp
shows off the world's first Super Hi-Vision LCD with 16x more detail than
1080p, engadget: 16
Ultra
High Definition Television, Ultra High Definition Television: 17
Holographic
TV could be here by 2020, dvice.com: 18
Sweden
raises the renewable energy bar, Tree Hugger: 19 MTR Projects: 20 Femern A/S - Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link: 21
US
health officials predict smoking bans in every state by 2020, if trend
continues, Chicago Tribune: 22
No
More Glaciers in Glacier National Park by 2020?, National Geographic: 23 BepiColombo - ESA: 24
Lifelike
animation heralds new era for computer games, The Times Online: 25
Google
Earth in 2020, GameTrailers.com: 26
Smart
meters to be fitted in every home by 2020, BBC: 27
UK
energy smart meter roll-out is outlined, BBC: |
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