2060-2069 Contents

2060 - Global mass migrations of refugees | Flood barriers erected in New York | Global extinction rates are peaking | An ageing population | Mining operations on the Moon

2061 - Halley's Comet returns

2062 - Nanofabricators are commercially available

2064 - IT's share of the US economy reaches 20%

2065 - Longevity treatments that can halt aging | Insurance crisis

2067 - Male and female salaries are reaching parity

2068 - A major landmark in the world of athletics

2069 - 100th anniversary of Apollo 11 | Invisibility suits are in military use

 

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2060

Global mass migrations of refugees

As the world enters the second half of the 21st century, equatorial regions are being abandoned by many people as climate change wreaks havoc on the environment. Large swathes of Africa, the Middle East, Southern Asia, Southern Europe and Latin America are being ravaged by a combination of severe drought, creeping desertification, torrential flooding and sea level rises.*

Mass migrations of refugees - the likes of which have never been seen before - dominate the news channels. With many areas becoming essentially uninhabitable, hundreds of millions attempt to resettle in more northerly and southerly latitudes over the subsequent decades. Once thriving cities like Dubai are turned into virtual ghost towns, while coastal cities lacking adequate defences are inundated by rising sea levels.

In Europe, many are looking to Britain as a "lifeboat", which, despite being subject to increasingly volatile weather, is relatively stable compared to the likes of Spain, Italy and the Balkans.* However, only a select few immigrants are being allowed into the country due to limited resources and housing. Army patrol boats are constantly on the lookout for refugees illegally entering British waters. A similar situation is occuring in Canada, which has actually prospered from climate change due to improved agriculture and precipitation. It now faces a massive wave of immigrants from the USA, Mexico and elsewhere.

Localised conflicts over food, territory and resources are erupting around the world during this time. This is causing devastation on a scale not seen since the Second World War.*

 

© Luca Oleastri | Dreamstime.com

 

 

Flood barriers erected in New York

The combination of sea level rises and increasing frequency of storm surges has begun to threaten even the business, financial and cultural heart of America. By 2060, what used to be a once-in-a-century type of flood has become a regular occurence.* This has led to the construction of sea walls, breakwaters and locks to the south of Manhattan, including one very big lock at the harbour entrance.* JFK Airport and other parts of the island are receiving protection too.

This is one of the largest public works projects in US history, and comes at enormous cost. However, the costs of not acting would have been even greater. Many other cities around the world are beginning to enact similar measures now.

 

Satellite imagery from USGS, EROS Data Center, National Air and Space Museum

 

 

Global extinction rates are peaking

Environmental destruction is reaching its apex now, with 0.5% of the world's animal and plant species going extinct per year - nearly ten times the rate seen in 2000.* The rainforests are being especially hard hit, with a number of beautiful and iconic species dying out. As a result of so much tree loss, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is triggering positive feedback loops, leading to accelerated global warming.

 

Credit: Thomas Heinz

 

 

An ageing population

In the early 21st century, around one in five of the European population was aged over 65. This meant that the pension costs, public health and transportation needs (and sometimes the housing and social-welfare requirements) of each senior citizen were supported by taxes and other deductions from the incomes of four working-age people (aged 15 to 64).

However, birth rates stayed low throughout the first half and into the second half of the century, whilst longevity was extending through better medicine, genetic therapy, nanotechnology, improved lifestyles and so on. This meant the ratio of young to old began to shrink tremendously. By 2060 there are 50m fewer workers and 67m more seniors, so the ratio is changed to one in three - in other words, only two working-age people to support each senior.

This has impacted hugely on government budgets, leading to a radical overhaul of social welfare. A similar pattern is emerging in other parts of the world.

The problem of labour supply (or lack thereof) is being mitigated somewhat by the increased use of robots and AI, but is still presenting challenges in the short term.

 

© Yuri Arcurs | Dreamstime.com

 

Mining operations on the Moon

A number of space agencies are conducting the first mining operations on the Moon. One of the principle resources for extraction is Helium-3, for use in the reactors of fusion power plants. This material is very rare on Earth - but abundant on the lunar surface. It is exceedingly valuable, a single shuttle-load being enough to power an entire country for several months.

 

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2061

Halley's Comet returns

The most famous of the periodic comets, Halley's Comet last appeared in the inner solar system in 1986. Like most comets, it has a highly elliptical orbit - taking it close to the Sun for only a short time. Several unmanned probes are sent to explore it during this year, including the first robotic lander.

 

 

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2062

Nanofabricators are commercially available*

These all-purpose self-assemblers can reproduce a seemingly infinite variety of items, provided the right quantity of raw materials are available. In effect, they are like miniature factories. These devices have been around for a while in certain military/corporate/medical environments, but are now available to the general public.

In appearance, they have a combined washing machine/microwave oven form-factor. Raw materials are purchased separately, and can be loaded in solid, liquid or powder form. An interior compartment is accessed via a small hatch - this is where the objects are constructed, atom by atom. The process takes a matter of minutes and the assembled items can be used immediately.

Electronic paper and circuitry, tools and equipment, entire laptops, replacement window panes, sheets of fabric, rare alcoholic beverages... these are just some of the countless items available for nanofabrication. New schematics can be downloaded from the Internet and programmed into the machine.

 

 

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2064

IT's share of the US economy reaches 20%

The trend in Information Technology growth is shown below. This has been consistent since the 1970s with no signs of it slowing down.* Major industries fueling this growth now include biotechnology, nanotechnology, robotics, leisure and entertainment (especially VR and related technologies).

By the end of this century, over a quarter of America's GDP will be based on IT, as the demand for physical goods and services decreases - being replaced with virtual and digital goods and services online.

 

 

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2065

Longevity treatments that can halt aging

By the middle of this decade, treatments are becoming available which can effectively halt the aging process altogether. This landmark in the field of gerontology has been achieved through a worldwide collaborative effort between thousands of universities, research institutes and scientific bodies.

Rather than viewing aging as a single process, scientists were able to identify seven key areas involved.

1. DNA mutations
2. Mitochondrial mutations
3. Intracellular aggregrates
4. Extracellular aggregrates
5. Cell loss
6. Cell senescence
7. Extracellular crosslinks

Various combinations of drugs were developed in order to combat these types of damage. In 2010, it was possible to slow aging by only two months per year. Over the subsequent decades, however, exponential progress was made thanks to the growth of information technology in medicine, combined with advances in nanotechnology which led to ever smaller and more sophisticated treatments. The use of nanobots - able to repair and restructure cells on a molecular level - meant the required "escape velocity" of twelve months per year was eventually reached.

Much debate rages over the morality of this treatment and its consequences for the world's population (especially from conservatives and religious groups), but there is generally strong support from the public. Following clinical trials and government approval, it is made available to the mass market.

Initially expensive, it is regarded as a luxury - in the same way that plastic surgery, laser eye surgery and other cosmetic procedures were viewed in earlier decades. However, the massive amount of public interest leads to intense competition between the pharmaceutical firms, which soon drives down costs.

Further refinement makes it possible to treat aging with just a single pill, rather than a combination of procedures. Advances in the coming decades will not only halt the aging process, but actually begin to reverse it. By the early 22nd century, even people in their 90s will begin to appear physically indistinguishable from those in their 30s.

 

 

 

Insurance crisis

Damage wrought by accelerating climate change has led to many insurance firms filing for bankruptcy. In America, widespread flooding has resulted in hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of damage. Coastal cities are particularly badly hit. Much of the infrastructure in the southern states has been destroyed by category 5 hurricanes, with Houston and New Orleans virtually abandoned.

Along the west coast, gigantic forest fires spread by the tinder-dry ground have ravaged much of the land. There are chronic water shortages. The economy of California is in tatters.

Some of the biggest insurance firms are nationalised by the US government in a bid to avert economic collapse.

 

 

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2067

Male and female salaries are reaching parity

By this date, the gender gap has narrowed to such an extent that salaries and rights are pretty much equal for men and women (in the Western world, at least). The chronic shortage of workers caused by the ageing population has helped to further this trend.

Women are now playing a greater role in business and government than ever before. Just one consequence has been a significant reduction in military spending compared to circa 2000 levels. The money and resources saved are being diverted to education, healthcare, transport and environmental programmes, improving the living standards and opportunities for many. With less male aggression in world affairs, more balanced and rational discourse is taking place on many international issues. The world of capitalism, too, is undergoing some of its biggest changes in almost a century, with less pursuit of short term "profit at all costs" and a much greater emphasis on long term stability.

Other factors have been responsible for this shift in focus - including the terrifying depletion of natural resources, which has forced a radical change of priorities. Widespread use of AI in neutral, passive, consultative roles is also helping to strengthen cooperation by providing more "logical" solutions to global problems.

 

 

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2068

A major landmark in the world of athletics*

At the 2068 Olympics, a major landmark is passed when a black male athlete completes the 100m sprint in less than nine seconds. Improved lifestyles and training techniques - including use of VR for mental enhancement - has seen the world record continue to fall during the last few decades. However, these records will soon be hitting a barrier as it becomes physically impossible for humans to run any faster without the use of biotechnological aids.*

A new breed of "super athlete" emerges towards the end of the century, as the authorities begin to legalise certain implants, drugs and muscle-enhancing devices. There is talk of splitting the games into three separate events - the Paralympics for those with disabilities; a "classic" group for natural, unenhanced athletes; and a third "cyber" category for those with biotech enhancements.

The Paralympics will eventually disappear altogether as literally all physical and visual disabilities are overcome.

 

Background image by Paul Foot.

 

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2069

100th anniversary of Apollo 11

Exactly one century has passed since Neil Armstrong made the first historic landing on the Moon. The anniversary is marked by celebrations in the lunar colonies and later becomes the first off-Earth national holiday.

By this date, the Apollo 11 landing site has been turned into a UNESCO world heritage site and tourist destination. Visitors can walk around the lunar module and see the famous flag and footprints left by the astronauts. With no atmospheric conditions, these have been perfectly preserved - exactly as they were on the day.

 

 

 

Invisibility suits are in military use

Once considered purely theoretical, advances in the use of metamaterials have enabled the creation of truly invisible camouflage suits.* When activated, these render the wearer completely transparent.

Breakthroughs in earlier decades showed that objects utilising metamaterials could be made invisible to microwave radiation. This was followed some years later by infrared radiation, until eventually all the frequencies of visible light on the spectrum could be filtered. When combined with stunning advances in nanotech, this made it possible to produce lightweight fabrics that could bend light in three dimensions.

A "mosaic" of nano-implants, forming highly sophisticated patterns, is embedded into the suit. These mosaics are stacked in layers: one for each frequency of the visible light spectrum. The effect is similar to that of a river flowing around a boulder. Light flows around the suit, before continuing in a straight line towards the onlooker.

The layers are so thin, and the implants so small, that the fabrics offer the wearer complete freedom of movement and flexibility. These suits are expensive, however, and are used mainly by special forces in covert operations.

The only obvious vulnerability is when the suits are used in heavy rain, or if crossing a body of water.

 

Cloaking device active: Light is deflected around the object, causing it to be invisible.

 

Cloaking device deactivated: Light is reflected and absorbed, causing it to be visible.

 

 

> 2070-2079