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2015 timeline contents

2015-2019 - Global economic depression | Virtual Reality makes a comeback | Tigers are going extinct

2015 - The deadline for the Millennium Development Goals | Expo 2015 is held in Milan, Italy | The world's first fully sustainable, zero-carbon, zero-waste city | The world's first lunar tourist | A new generation of hi-tech supercarriers | The first large-scale solar updraft towers are operational | Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history | Gay marriage is legal in the United Kingdom | Battery technology gets a boost | 3D printing is a mainstream consumer product | OLED screens are becoming widespread | 10 nanometre chips enter mass production | Scientists resurrect the woolly mammoth | Lifesaver bottles are in widespread use | The Carteret Islands are abandoned | The New Horizons probe arrives at Pluto | Dawn arrives at Ceres | Voyager I enters the heliopause

 

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2015-2019

Global economic depression

The economic crisis which began in 2007 shows little sign of ending. US debt has continued to spiral out of control, reaching $20 trillion,* and its credit rating has been further downgraded. In an unprecedented move, the dollar is now losing its status as the world's reserve currency, with a basket of currencies in the process of replacing it. America is seemingly paralysed by political deadlock, while the gutting of its social programs has created a dangerously polarised society.*

The contagion affecting the eurozone, initially confined to Greece, eventually spread throughout the continent, leading to the collapse of numerous banks, corporations and financial institutions. Bailout after bailout has failed to provide an adequate long term solution.

Unemployment remains high throughout the West, with extremely weak consumer spending and governments everywhere faced with lower tax revenues. Oil and food prices continue to rise.* Gold and silver have reached unprecedented highs.*

Meanwhile, China is facing its own problems - including the fallout of a massive real estate bubble.*

There are widespread riots and protests throughout the world during this time, extremely volatile market conditions and frightening changes in society at large. Investor confidence has been shattered, with a growing reluctance to take risks. The world is now mired in a full-blown depression, with no sign of a light at the end of the tunnel.*

 

 

 

Virtual Reality makes a comeback

Despite the economic crisis, technology continues to advance, for now. The exponential growth in computer power has enabled the creation of highly lifelike graphics and 3D environments. At the same time, faster broadband is opening up new frontiers in cyberspace, allowing the development of Web 3.0 - the next generation of Internet. When combined with developments in on-person hardware, this is leading to a rebirth of virtual reality.* Having been something of a gimmick in the 1980s, it is now a serious tool for business, leisure, education and training.

Much of the content in these environments is user-generated, with online communities for sharing and exchanging virtual objects, buildings, avatars, etc. For the wealthy, some of the hardware options now available include pod-like structures which are fully enclosing and respond to a variety of gesture commands.*

 

© Andreus | Dreamstime.com

 

 

Tigers are going extinct

The 20th century saw tiger numbers plunge by over 95% worldwide. By the 1970s, they had disappeared from Central Asia, by the 1980s from Java and by the 1990s from South China. Three of the nine subspecies – Bali, Javan and Caspian tigers – were extinct by the 1980s.

Tiger numbers continued to decline into the 21st century. By 2010, it was estimated that India – once a stronghold for these animals – had less than 800 left in the wild, while some of the rarer subspecies had only 30 individuals. Poaching remained a serious problem, with tiger skins fetching up to $20,000 in China. Habitat loss was accelerating, with farmers encroaching into tigers' territory and forests being cleared to make way for palm oil plantations.

Summits were held between conservation groups and the few countries where tigers remained. These proved to be ineffectual, however, and were more about politicians wanting to be seen doing something, rather than tackling the issues on the ground.

Within a few years, there were no longer any viable breeding populations of tigers, setting them on the path to irreversible decline. Once the most recognisable and popular of the world's megafauna, this animal would soon go the way of the dodo, with only small numbers remaining in zoos and private collections.*

 

© Justin Black | Dreamstime.com

 

2015

The deadline for the Millenium Development Goals

In 2000, the largest gathering of world leaders in history took place, as the 193 UN member states met in New York to discuss the Millenium Development Goals (MDGs). These were eight international objectives with ambitious targets for developing countries, most of them to be achieved by 2015.*

• Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
- By 2015, reduce by half the proportion of people living on less than $1 a day.
- By 2015, reduce by half the proportion of people who suffer from hunger.

• Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education
- By 2015, ensure a full course of primary schooling for boys and girls alike.

• Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women
- By 2005, eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education; and at all levels of education by 2015.

• Goal 4: Reduce child mortality rates
- By 2015, reduce by two-thirds the number of children dying under age five.

• Goal 5: Improve maternal health
- By 2015, reduce by three quarters the number of women dying from complications of pregnancy and childbirth.

• Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases
- By 2015, halt and begin to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS.
- By 2015, halt and begin to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases.

• Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability
- Reverse the loss of environmental resources.
- By 2015, halve the proportion of people lacking access to safe drinking water.
- By 2020, achieve significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers.

• Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development
- Address the special needs of the least developed countries, landlocked nations and small island developing states.
- Deal comprehensively with the debt problems of developing countries through national and international measures, in order to make debt sustainable in the long term.
- In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications technologies.

 

 

To accelerate progress towards the MDGs, the G-8 Finance Ministers met in London in June 2005 and reached an agreement to provide enough funds to the World Bank, the IMF and the African Development Bank to write off $55bn of debt owed by the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC). This would allow these impoverished nations to re-channel the money saved from the cancelled debt to social programs for improving health and education and for alleviating poverty.

Achieving the MDGs would not necessarily depend on economic growth alone and expensive solutions. In the case of MDG 4, some developing countries like Bangladesh showed that it was possible to reduce child mortality with only modest growth, via inexpensive but effective interventions such as measles immunisation. A number of important and innovative new technologies were also emerging - such as the $100 laptop project,* the LifeSaver bottle* and the genetic engineering of mosquitoes.*

 

The $100 laptop project. Credit: cellanr

 

By 2010, some countries had achieved many goals, while others were not on track to realise any. The countries with major success stories included China (whose citizens in poverty fell from 452m to 278m), India, Brazil, Thailand, Vietnam, Cuba, Honduras, Nicaragua, Ecuador and Ethiopia.

However, some regions in Sub-Saharan Africa failed to make any significant changes in improving their quality of life. The prevalence of hunger in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), for example - Africa's 2nd largest country - more than doubled, while Zimbabwe saw a nearly 50% increase in poverty and Kenya's child mortality rate increased from 105 to 128 per 1000.*

Progress towards reaching the goals was therefore mixed. There were setbacks and disappointments. But overall, the reduction in poverty and increased access to health, education, technology and other essential services was without precedent in many countries' histories. Of particular note was the number of deaths due to AIDS, which saw a dramatic levelling off and decline.*

By 2015, increasing global uncertainties such as the economic crisis, peak oil and climate change have led to a rethink of the MDG approach to development policy, with a new set of goals for 2030.

 

 

 

Expo 2015 is held in Milan, Italy

The Universal Exposition is held in Milan this year, the first time the city has hosted the event since 1906. The main theme of the exposition is the future availability of food and water supplies and the state of nutrition and health in the years to come. New technology is on display, all with the aim of reducing poverty and famine around the world, as well as the spread of infectious diseases. A working prototype of a vertical farm is also presented as an alternative to traditional agriculture.

This event serves as a catalyst for talks between concerned parties such as farmers, non-profit organisations, humanitarian workers and environmentalists, initiating several new movements for change. Over 100 nations from around the world participate in the Expo. By the time it finishes in late 2015, many millions of people have visited.**

 

 

 

The world's first fully sustainable, zero-carbon, zero-waste city

The first phase of Masdar City - a $22 billion eco-project - is completed in 2015.* This huge development is located outside of Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates. Entirely pre-planned and self-contained, it is the world's first carbon neutral, zero waste and fully sustainable city. A multitude of green technologies are utilised - including a solar power plant, rooftop photovoltaics, wind farms, geothermal sources and a hydrogen power plant. The city's water needs are fulfilled by a solar-powered desalination plant. There are extensive recycling systems too.

Masdar City will initially be home to around 7,000 residents and 15,000 commuters. Its commercial sector is primarily concerned with the manufacture of environmentally-friendly products. Automobiles are banned from the city, residents instead using integrated forms of mass transit and personal rapid transit.* It is connected to the rest of Abu Dhabi through rail and existing roadways. It contains a university and an institute of science and technology.

Masdar City will undergo major expansion. The final phase of the project will be completed by 2025, covering an area of 6 sq km (2.3 sq mi). By then, it will contain over 50,000 residents and 1,500 businesses.*

 

 

 

The world's first lunar tourist

In 2001, Dennis Tito became the world's first space tourist, spending eight days on the International Space Station and orbiting Earth a total of 128 times. Tito paid a reported $20 million for his trip, through an arrangement with space tourism company Space Adventures Ltd.

A number of startup companies sprang up in subsequent years, in the hope of creating a space tourism industry. These included Virgin Galactic, which used suborbital spacecraft designed by Scaled Composites and launched from Spaceport America. At a cost of $200,000 each, civilians could journey to a height of 110 km (68 miles), experiencing up to six minutes of zero-G whilst looking down on the Earth.

Plans for an orbital hotel were also unveiled by Russian company Energiya, in partnership with Orbital Technologies, a US hi-tech firm.

Space Adventures began to look further, however, setting its sights on an even more daring and ambitious venture. In 2015, the company offers the first lunar orbits to paying tourists. At a cost of $150 million, passengers can travel beyond Earth orbit, enjoying circumlunar trips and viewing the Moon from just 100 km (62 miles) above its surface - as well as viewing the famous Earthrise.* Only 24 people have ever experienced this. The craft is also considerably larger and more comfortable than those used during the Apollo program.*

 

Credit: Space Adventures

 

 

A new generation of hi-tech supercarriers

The first in a new generation of US aircraft carriers is launched this year. The Gerald R. Ford-class replaces the aging Nimitz-class which has been in service since 1975. This new class of ship includes some major improvements over previous generations. These include: increased automation, electromagnetic aircraft launch systems to replace previous steam mechanisms, increased stealth, a new type of nuclear reactor for more efficient power consumption, high tech radar and flight control, as well as the ability to carry the new F-35 Lightning II fighter jet. Ten carriers are commissioned in total, at a cost of $14bn each (including research and development). The 10th and final ship is launched by 2040.*

 

Credit: U.S. Navy

 

 

The first large-scale solar updraft towers are operational

The first large-scale solar updraft towers are completed in 2015.* Built by EnviroMission - a start-up company that purchased land in Arizona, USA - they stand 800 metres in height, over twice as tall as the Empire State Building. Each generates 200 megawatts of clean, renewable energy - enough to serve 150,000 homes - and equivalent to removing 220,000 polluting cars from the roads.*

The towers work by combining three old and proven technologies: the chimney effect, the greenhouse effect, and the wind turbine. Air is heated by the Sun and contained in a very large greenhouse-like structure around the base; the resulting convection causes air to rise up the chimney. This airflow then drives turbines, producing electricity.

The towers have a number of advantages:

• Because they work on temperature differential, not absolute temperature, they work in any weather;
• Because the heat of the day warms the ground up so much, they continue working at night;
• Since large areas of hot, dry land provide the best results, they can be built on useless and uninhabited land in the middle of the desert;
• They use no resources such as coal or uranium - just air and sunlight;
• They emit zero pollution. The only "emission" is warm air from the top of the tower. In fact, because of the greenhouse underneath, they can also be used for growing vegetation;
• They require virtually no maintenance and will last for almost a century;
• They can serve as tourist attractions, with money being generated from people wishing to experience their viewing galleries at the top.

This new technology offers hope for the future, coming at a time when the world faces an impending energy crisis. Once proven to be commercially successful, it will be deployed on a wider scale in the 2020s.

 

 

 

Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history

On 10th September 2015, Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history - surpassing the record held by Victoria, her great-great grandmother. Having ascended to the throne on 6th February 1952, she has now reigned for 63 years and 217 days.*

The six decades of her reign have witnessed enormous changes on the world stage - including the dismantling of the British Empire, the civil rights movement, the growing empowerment of women in society, the development of the Space Age, accelerating globalisation, the fall of communism in Europe, the end of the Cold War, the dawn of the information age, and the rise of China, to name but a few.

Now aged 89, she is becoming noticeably frailer and has begun to scale back her official duties. The next milestone (assuming she lives that long) will be in 2022 - her Platinum Jubilee. Her eldest son Charles will succeed her, becoming King Charles III.

 

 

 

Gay marriage is legal in the UK

Civil partnerships had already been permitted in the UK since 2004, following the Civil Partnership Act. This gave rights and responsibilities to same-sex couples that were identical to civil marriage between opposite-sex couples. They were entitled to the same property rights, the same exemption on inheritance tax, the same social security and pension benefits, full life insurance recognition, the ability to get parental responsibility for a partner's children, as well as next of kin rights in hospitals.

This angered some Christian groups concerned that the sanctity of marriage was being threatened. It was criticised by gay rights activists, however, for not going far enough. The Act stopped short of awarding full marriage status, which they still viewed as a form of discrimination.

The gay rights movement continued to gain momentum. A public consultation was conducted in 2012, aimed at further reform. This was supported by the conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, as part of a modernising drive included in his party's election manifesto. By 2015, full marriage rights are granted to gay couples in the UK.*

Gay rights are also making progress in the USA, along with many other countries around the world.* The number of Americans supporting gay marriage has now overtaken those against.*

 

 

 

Battery technology gets a boost

A new method of charging lithium-ion batteries has been perfected. This enables them to charge ten times faster and to last ten times as long. A chemical oxidation process creates miniscule holes (10 to 20 nanometres) between layers of graphene. This provides lithium ions with a "shortcut" to the anode. Energy density is increased by inserting clusters of silicon between each graphene slice, which allows more ions to gather at the electrode.*

By 2015, the process is widely used in consumer electronics. Mobile phones can now be charged from flat in under 15 minutes, with a single charge lasting up to a week. This technology also paves the way for smaller and more efficient batteries for electric cars.

 

 

 

3D printing is a mainstream consumer product

Until recently, this technology was extremely expensive - upwards of $15,000 per machine - and limited to use in industrial prototyping, product design, medical modeling and architectural models.* However, plummeting costs are now making it affordable to consumers.**

Rather than using ink on paper, these machines can actually "print" 3D objects. This is achieved by melting nylon powder and then shaping it based on computer instructions.

Countless different items can be produced – from jewellery and decorative giftware, to children's toys, kitchenware, replacement plugs, hooks, pipes, fittings, flooring and other household essentials.

Users can download new items and configurations from the Web.* Artists and hobbyists can even create their own, using these printers in combination with 3D scanners and modeling software.

In addition to falling costs, another reason that home 3D printing has taken off rapidly is that there is very little manufacturing being done in America and various other countries anymore. As a result, there is little or no pressure by manufacturing special interests against it.

In the decades ahead, this technology will evolve into nanofabricators, capable of reproducing items with atomic precision within minutes. It will ultimately lead to matter replicators with near-instantaneous production of virtually any object – including foodstuffs.

 

 

 

OLED screens are becoming widespread

Having fallen in cost, organic light-emitting diodes (OLED) are appearing in a wide variety of devices.* These use considerably less power than traditional LEDs and LCDs whilst allowing sharper, thinner, brighter displays. They also eliminate the need for back lights. Sunlight that would normally "wash out" a display has no effect - the screens appear the same even in broad daylight, or when tilted at an angle.

 

© Syrist | Dreamstime.com

 

 

10 nanometre chips enter mass production

The next generation of microprocessor technology is released by Intel, with transistors based on a 10 nanometre manufacturing process.* Over 10 billion transistors can now be packed onto a single chip. Moore's Law will soon be hitting a wall, as the effects of quantum tunnelling start to degrade chip performance. Traditional integrated circuits will reach their limit in the early 2020s, with a new paradigm emerging in the form of "stacked" 3D circuits made from carbon nanotubes, graphene and other new materials.

 

 

 

Scientists resurrect the woolly mammoth

New cloning technology has enabled the woolly mammoth - extinct for 5,000 years - to be brought back to life. Tissue samples are taken from a mammoth frozen in permafrost. The nuclei of a viable cell is then inserted into the egg cell of a female African elephant, which can act as a surrogate mother. Following a 600-day gestation period, the baby woolly mammoth is born.

Previous attempts to clone mammoths had failed, because the cell nuclei were too badly damaged by ice crystals; but new techniques have overcome this problem.*

The mammoths take around 20 years to reach adulthood. By the 2030s, they are appearing in a number of zoos and private collections. Other extinct mammals are cloned too, such as the sabre-tooth tiger and Megatherium.

 

 

 

LifeSaver bottles are in widespread use

Third World countries are benefitting from a revolutionary portable device. First revealed in 2007, it is now widely used by foreign aid workers and UN staff.

The "LifeSaver Bottle" filters water-borne pathogens, using holes just 15 nanometers across, to prevent even the smallest viruses (25 nanometers across) getting through, and eliminating the need for chemicals to treat the water. The Lifesaver Bottle is fitted with a 4000UF replaceable purification cartridge that removes bacteria, viruses, cysts, parasites, fungi, and all other microbiological water-borne pathogens.

It also comes with an activated carbon filter, made of a high specification activated carbon block. This reduces a broad spectrum of chemical residues including: pesticides, endocrine disrupting compounds, medical residues and heavy metals such as lead and copper. The carbon filter also eliminates bad tastes and odors from contaminates such as chlorine and sulphur. It is designed to last for approximately 250 litres.*

 

 

The Carteret Islands are abandoned

By 2015, due to rising sea levels, the inhabitants of the Carteret Islands in Papua New Guinea have been forced to abandon their homelands.* These people are among the first true climate refugees.

Crops, trees and wells have been contaminated by seawater, while most of the buildings on the islands have been destroyed. Attempts to build sea wall defences were unsuccessful – these were simply washed away.

The melting of polar ice sheets and glaciers, together with thermal expansion, could raise the level of Earth's oceans nearly 2m by 2100 - potentially displacing hundreds of millions of people worldwide.

 

Credit: EVS-Islands

 

 

New Horizons arrives at Pluto

This NASA probe was launched in 2006 and has travelled more than 4 billion kilometres through space. In July 2015, it returns the first close range, high resolution pictures of the icy world - along with its four moons - before passing through the Kuiper Belt.*

 

Credit: NASA

 

 

Dawn arrives at Ceres

Dawn is a robotic spacecraft sent by NASA on a mission to the asteroid belt. It reaches Vesta in 2011, before rendezvousing with the dwarf planet, Ceres, in 2015.

Ceres and Vesta are the two most massive members of the asteroid belt: 950 and 530 km in diameter, respectively. Dawn is the first probe to study and photograph them at close range. Both bodies formed very early in the history of the Solar System, thereby retaining a record of events and processes from the time of the formation of the terrestrial planets.

Dawn is also innovative - it becomes the first spacecraft to enter into orbit around a celestial body, study it, then re-embark under powered flight to a second target. All previous multi-target missions (such as the Voyager program) have involved rapid planetary flybys.*

 

Credit: NASA

 

 

Voyager I enters the heliopause

Voyager I remains the most distant human-made object, traveling away from the Earth at a speed greater than any other space probe.

Launched in 1977, its original mission was to visit Jupiter and Saturn. It became the first probe to provide detailed images of these planets and their moons.

In 2003, it entered the "termination shock" - the point where solar wind particles slow down to subsonic speeds due to interactions with the local interstellar medium.

By 2015, it has travelled so far that it has begun entering a region known as the "heliopause" - the point where the interstellar medium and solar wind pressures balance. It remains operational during this time, pursuing its extended mission to study the very boundaries of the Solar System, including the Kuiper Belt and beyond.

The probe, along with its sister - Voyager II - will continue operating as they head for the "Bow Shock", the true beginnings of interstellar space. They will transmit signals back to Earth until at least 2025 (half a century after they were launched) before their power finally runs out.

 

Credit: NASA