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2040 timeline contents

2040 - Fusion power is nearing commercial availability | "Energy islands" are widespread in coastal regions | Less than two-thirds of the original Congo jungle remains standing | Virtual telepathy is dominating personal communications | Biorepository and genomic information systems are transforming healthcare | Pollen counts have more than doubled | Tobacco has been largely eradicated | Claytronics are revolutionising consumer products | Breakthroughs in carbon nanotube production | China's HSR network has been greatly expanded | Completion of the Northeast Corridor high-speed rail route

2040

Fusion power is nearing commercial availability

A prototype commercial fusion reactor is entering its final phase of operation.* DEMO (DEMOnstration Power Plant) is the successor to ITER and has built on the success of that project, achieving a number of major breakthroughs. Among the earlier problems which have now been solved are: containing the plasma at high enough temperatures, maintaining a great enough density of reacting ions, and capturing high-energy neutrons from the reaction without melting the walls of the interior.

Constructed from 2024 to 2033, DEMO is now close to being perfected, having undergone several years of testing, expansion and upgrades. Later this decade, it will produce a sustained output of 2 gigawatts (GW), making fusion commercially available for the first time.*

Credit: Chepe Nicoli

"Energy islands" are widespread in coastal regions

Many countries are now suffering chronic water shortages due to the effects of climate change and overpopulation. This is a particular problem in developing regions. Higher global temperatures are causing lakes, wells and reservoirs to run dry, even as populations continue to rise.

One strategy being used to alleviate this crisis involves compact, floating "energy islands". These combine offshore power generation with desalination plants. First demonstrated in the 2010s, significant numbers are now being deployed in tropical coastal areas, where conditions are ideal for ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC).

Each island is hexagonal in shape and interlocked with other islands, forming artificial archipelagos. Wind turbines and concentrated solar power are installed on the topsides - while on the undersides, flash-evaporated seawater is used to drive turbine generators, in turn producing drinkable water.*

A single 250-megawatt OTEC plant can meet the energy demands of 250,000 households and provide 600 million litres of drinkable water each day.* Surplus water is used to support local agriculture and industry. These islands also feature housing developments, fish farms, greenhouses and eco-tourism complexes, in addition to the water and power production facilities. By the 22nd century, they will evolve into larger versions - entire "micronations" roaming the seas.*

Click to enlarge.

© Energy Islands. Image reproduced with permission.

Less than two-thirds of the original Congo jungle remains standing

The Congo region is a sedimentary basin for the drainage of the Congo River in west equatorial Africa. At the turn of the 21st century it contained a quarter of the world's tropical forests, with a total area of 2.5 million sq km.* It held some of the largest undisturbed portions of tropical rainforest on the planet, second only to the Amazon in Brazil. Spanning across six countries, it was home to over 10,000 unique species of tropical plants, 30% of which could not be found anywhere else on Earth. There were over 1,000 bird species, 700 fish species and 400 mammal species. Some noted examples included the Bonobo (humanity's closest living relatives), the Forest Elephant, the okapi, Congo Peafowl, and various species of gorilla. Rare and unique frogs, bats, rodents and birds, together with plants such as orchids, could also be found.

Despite efforts to slow deforestation in the developing countries of Africa, the rainforests of the Congo Basin and elsewhere continued to recede over the decades. As early as the late 2010s, Nigeria's forests had shrunk down to essentially nothing,* while the situation in Central Africa had worsened too. Alongside the bush meat trade impacting fauna, the largely unregulated logging industry continued to chip away at the flora.

Interest in foreign markets led to massive mining operations being conducted in the region, dealing severe damage to its ecosystem. Untapped deposits of raw minerals and metals - estimated to be worth in excess of US$24 trillion* - attracted companies in droves. The expansion of cities and construction of new dams also played a role in harming the fragile environment, while slash-and-burn farming practices began to run rampant as the population soared. Ever-increasing resource demands and the need for economic growth led governments to look the other way during much of this exploitation. This was despite an outcry from the international community and environmentalists.

By 2040, climate change is having an impact too. Since the vast majority of rainfall is generated in the region itself, the resulting isolation makes it more vulnerable to global warming. A large proportion of moisture in Central Africa is produced by evapo-transpiration of trees in the Congo Basin. Substantial reductions in rainfall are now occurring. Loss of forests, especially through fires started by farmers, is pumping huge amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. The rainforest is now transitioning from a carbon sink to a carbon source. With 66 gigatonnes of "volatile" carbon - and a further 50 gigatonnes in the rest of tropical Africa - the equivalent of five years' worth of global emissions could eventually be released.*

These factors have converged so that, by 2040, less than two-thirds of the original Congo remains. Prior to the arrival of human civilisation, rainforests covered somewhere between 80-85% of the total land area in the region - around 3.29 million square km (1.27 million square miles).** By the mid-20th century, one-fifth had disappeared. Deforestation began to accelerate in the 21st century, due to rapid population growth and economic development. By 2020, the rainforests were declining by 0.3% each year; by 2030 this had risen to 0.5% per year* and by 2040 the rate is 0.7%.

In addition to extinctions of animals and plants, numerous indigenous tribes are being uprooted, their cultures disrupted and in some cases lost forever. There is much social and political upheaval in the region. On top of this, local resource conflicts are beginning to break out, primarily over food. This is only serving to exacerbate the environmental damage. Many areas of forest have become battle grounds, while civilian populations are forced to become more self-sufficient, turning to their surrounding local environment for resources.

Virtual telepathy is dominating personal communications

The first generation of brain-computer interfaces reached the consumer market in around 2010. This technology was crude and limited to begin with: more of a novelty than a serious application. Devices could perform only the simplest of operations, such as directional commands.** Some university experiments were successful in creating text messages using thought power alone,* but were slow and required bulky equipment to do so.

Advances by 2020 enabled the sending of messages via wireless headsets and visors* - but the process remained sluggish and unreliable, often demanding a high degree of concentration.*

By 2030, however, exponential progress had been made in mapping and understanding the brain and its neuroelectrical signals.* This was filtering down rapidly to the consumer market. Detailed, real-time messages were becoming possible, using non-invasive methods. The graphical interfaces used in composing messages had also been much improved, with more intuitive navigation and features.

By 2040, the technology is largely perfected for everyday use. It works well and is cheap enough to have spread to even developing countries. Privacy and security issues have been resolved, with personal firewalls able to restrict any unwanted intrusion or hacking attempts. The headsets, visors and earphones necessary for users have been miniaturised and made more comfortable. Some are even fully implantable. Whether for business or personal use, people everywhere are now enjoying a faster, more sophisticated, more private way of communicating.

This form of "virtual telepathy" - and the convergence of other network-based technologies - is radically reshaping society and culture during this time. A speculative bubble is formed on the stock markets, with investors everywhere forecasting a revolution in telecoms. This temporarily overheats the economy, resulting in a crash similar to that of the dotcom collapse of early 2000.

Biorepository and genomic information systems are transforming healthcare

By now, most countries have established a national biorepository and genomic information system, with mandatory entry for every citizen. In other words, governments now have a genetic sample of every person. This is needed for a variety of reasons – from national security, to public health, citizen ID, immigration control, resolution of crimes and more – but the most common use is in healthcare.

These genomic information systems are integrated with electronic health records and personal health records, allowing identification and treatment of disease and healthcare issues at the earliest opportunity. Hard data from these systems allow doctors and surgeons to better treat their patients, while government and researchers can target time and resources more efficiently. By utilising such a broad spectrum of information, medical schools and healthcare providers can train and employ the best possible mix of specialists for their patient population.

The focus of healthcare has shifted in recent years – to preventative methods, as opposed to reactionary methods after a disease state has occurred. As well as saving more lives, this has major economic benefits too.

By now, the average person is using at least one biotechnological implant.* Once again, these devices are tailored to their exact personal health requirements. For example, they can be programmed to monitor specific conditions and to dispense medication when needed while simultaneously notifying a doctor. They can identify a patient who is unconscious or unable to communicate for whatever reason, providing vital clinical information during an emergency. They can also be used as tracking devices for mental patients or those suffering from neurological conditions.

Pollen counts have more than doubled

In 2000, pollen counts for the US averaged 8,455 per cubic metre of air. By 2040, this figure has risen to 21,735 – largely due to climate change which has caused major alterations in weather, precipitation and temperature.* Alongside this, the hay fever season has shifted to earlier in the year, with pollen counts now peaking on 8th April, compared to 1st May at the start of the century. Similar changes have taken place in countries around the world. Thankfully, new treatments are now available to prevent allergic reactions. Recent years have seen major advances in gene therapy, for instance. These drugs can "repair" the DNA of hay fever sufferers.

Tobacco has been largely eradicated

In the USA, tobacco use peaked in the early 1960s with nearly 45% of adults smoking regularly. As the health risks became more apparent, efforts were made by government, public health advocates, grassroots organisations and others to raise awareness. These campaigns were remarkably successful in stemming the rates of smoking and tobacco-related disease and death. Smoking was banned in aeroplanes, office buildings and later in public locations such as bars and restaurants. Strict laws on the advertising of tobacco products and their use in movies and television were also introduced. In addition, improvements were made in the availability and efficacy of smoking cessation aids and pharmaceuticals.

By the early 1990s, the number of US adult smokers had plunged to 25% and by 2010 the figure was down to 20%. By 2020, smoking in public was banned across every US state and in many other countries around the world, with smoking rates continuing to decline.

Efforts continued over the following two decades and once again proved to be highly successful. The costs of government interventions were surprisingly small - less than 50 US cents per person, per year, in countries such as India and China. By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking.*

Claytronics are revolutionising consumer products

Claytronics, also known as programmable matter, are now embedded in countless everyday items. This technology involves the manipulation of tiny devices known as catoms (claytronic atoms). Joined electrostatically, these work in concert to produce changes at the macroscale.

Objects featuring these catoms can be radically altered in form and function. Furniture can morph into new types, for instance. A bed could suddenly become a sofa, or a large table. Chairs can be instantly moulded to precisely suit the individual. Walls, carpets, ceilings, doors and other surfaces can modify their colour or texture on demand.

Electronics can be made more adaptable to their environments - altering their structure to cope with dust and heat in a desert, then later shifting to resist humidity and moisture in a jungle, or even becoming completely waterproof. Devices worn on the head or ears can mould themselves to fit the individual.

Many vehicles now use claytronics. Car surfaces can change colour at the touch of a button. Or they can self-heal, fixing bumps and scratches. Tyres can be instantly adapted for different terrain types or weather conditions. Transparent windows can be instantly blacked-out for privacy.

Claytronics are especially popular in children's toys, with figures taking on astonishingly lifelike forms. Various other everyday objects are now highly configurable and morphable. Further into the future, claytronics will enable the creation of entire simulated humans.*

Breakthroughs in carbon nanotube production

After decades of research, new processes have been developed for synthesising carbon nanotubes, promising to revolutionise the fields of engineering, architecture and materials science. Having been limited to a few centimetres, these structures can now reach potentially thousands of miles in length.* Purification techniques ensure maximum tensile strength, making them hundreds of times stronger than steel. Among the many applications, the technology for a space elevator is now available. Political and financial will are the only remaining obstacles for such a project.*

China's HSR network has been greatly expanded

China's rapid economic growth in the early 21st century was aided by its massive investments in infrastructure. Highways, bridges, tunnels and airports quickly spread throughout the country, linking nearly every major city and regional province, while 15,000 new cars were added to the nation's roads each day. Above all, however, it was high-speed rail that proved to be the driving factor in much of China's rise.**

Similar to the industrial revolution 200 years previously, rail provided growth and increased prosperity to every area it connected to. Between 2010 and 2020, China invested $300 billion* in constructing over 17,600 km (11,000 mi) of additional rail lines, giving 90% of the population access to the network.* From the 2020s onwards, there was further expansion of high-speed rail, as skyrocketing fuel prices* made commercial air travel prohibitively expensive for most people, with many turning to rail as an alternative. Commitments to reduce carbon emissions also spurred growth in HSR, since the trains themselves produced far less greenhouse gases. This huge increase in passenger numbers made HSR a profitable industry.*

Along with being more energy efficient and cheaper, advances in design and technology boosted train speeds by hundreds of miles per hour, making them competitive with flight schedules in many cases. The very fastest routes now included trains traveling at over 1,000 km/h (625 mph).* Maglev routes were expanded significantly, especially along the coast. Along with internal connections, plans were formulated to link the Chinese rail system with those of Europe, India, Russia and Japan. With such a huge rail network, the cities of China were more closely connected than ever before. In a sense, high-speed rail created a 1.2 billion person "single city" effect, with much of the population only a few hours away from each other.*

Along with growth in commerce, rail has driven - and in turn been driven by - China's unprecedented urbanisation. By 2040, over 70% of the population lives in urban areas.* Vast megacities, each with more than 100 million people, have formed out of the gradual merging of smaller metropolises.* The largest examples today are the three main economic zones: the Yangtze River Delta (Shanghai, Nanjing, and Hangzhou), the Pearl River Delta (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong) and the Bohai Economic Rim (Beijing, Tianjin, and Tangshan).

Despite all this, China's economy has begun to weaken significantly in recent years.** With a declining workforce and with most of its growth fueled by debt, the country is now embroiled in political, economic and social strife. Restructuring and artificial inflation had managed to sustain the situation temporarily, but could only do so much. Worsening climate change is now an additional factor. This is a particular problem in Shanghai, which has been woefully unprepared for sea level rises.* Though still experiencing moderate local growth, the country as a whole is now approaching crisis point. By the end of this decade, it will have largely stagnated, becoming one of the last major powers to do so.*

Completion of the Northeast Corridor high-speed rail route

By 2040, work is nearing completion on a major upgrade of the Northeast Corridor (NEC). America's busiest rail line, the NEC runs from Boston in the north to Washington in the south, via New York. Like many rail services in the US, it had seen decades of underinvestment. Much of the infrastructure was poorly managed and in need of renovation. Tunnels, for example, had speed restrictions due to their obsolete designs, while electrical components dating from the 1930s would routinely fail. There were engine breakdowns, conflicts among trains and frequent delays costing tens of millions of dollars in lost productivity.

Between 2000 and 2010, intercity ridership on the NEC jumped from 8.2 to 13 million passengers a year. In an effort to address future capacity needs, improve service reliability and reduce travel times, Amtrak formulated plans for a $150 billion, 30-year investment program. This would see construction of a dedicated high-speed route, with trains running up to 220 mph (354 kph).

Credit: Amtrak

The plans include fully upgraded tracks and signals, new tunnels, new bridges and expanded stations. Tracks follow the existing NEC and transport networks whenever possible to minimise impacts. Implemented in three main phases, the Newark to New York section is completed by 2025; the Washington to Newark section is completed by 2030 and the final section between New York and Boston is completed by 2040.

Journey times are dramatically reduced. A trip from Boston to New York that previously took 3 hours and 34 minutes can now be completed in just 1 hour and 34 minutes. A trip from New York to Philadelphia is reduced from 1 hour and 10 minutes to just 37 minutes, while a trip from Philadelphia to Washington is cut from 1 hour and 33 minutes to just 54 minutes. For passengers travelling the entire 438 miles (705 km) from Boston to Washington, this means a total reduction in journey time of more than 50% - from 6 hours and 17 minutes, to 3 hours and 5 minutes. Following many years of neglect, this region of the United States finally has a world class rail system.*

Credit: Amtrak

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References

1 DEMO, Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DEMO
Accessed 1st June 2010.

2 ITER & Beyond, Wikipedia:
http://www.iter.org/proj/ITERAndBeyond
Accessed 1st June 2010.

3 Energy Island, Energy Island Ltd:
http://www.energyisland.com/
Accessed 22nd July 2010.

4 Dream of green ocean paradise at hand, Recharge News:
http://www.rechargenews.com/energy/wave_tidal_hydro/article185357.ece
Accessed 16th April 2012.

5 See 2100.

6 Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010, The UN Food and Agriculture Organization:
http://www.fao.org/forestry/fra/fra2010/en/
Accessed 19th February 2012.

7 See 2018.

8 Congo with $24 Trillion in Mineral Wealth BUT still Poor, News About Congo:
http://www.newsaboutcongo.com/2009/03/congo-with-24-trillion-in-mineral-wealth-but-still-poor.html
Accessed 19th February 2012.

9 Protecting and restoring forest carbon in tropical Africa, Forest Philanthropy Action Network:
http://files.forestsnetwork.org/Chapter3.pdf
Accessed 19th February 2012.

10 EarthTrends: Country Profiles - Forests, Grasslands and Drylands, World Resources Institute:
http://earthtrends.wri.org/country_profiles/index.php?theme=9
Accessed 19th February 2012.

11 Original and remaining forest cover, The UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre:
http://www.unep-wcmc.org/medialibrary/2011/09/27/cc69b7bf/currorig.jpg
Accessed 19th February 2012.

12 Model predicts future deforestation, Nature:
http://www.nature.com/news/2009/091120/full/news.2009.1100.html
Accessed 19th February 2012.

13 See 2009.

14 Gaming gadgets 'rock' at CES 2009, BBC:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7822293.stm
Accessed 5th June 2010.

15 Twitter Telepathy: Researchers Turn Thoughts Into Tweets, Wired:
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/04/braintweet/
Accessed 5th June 2010.

16 See 2020.

17 The futurist, Ray Kurzweil, splits the emergence of new technologies into four distinct stages:
Stage 1: The technology is extremely expensive, doesn't work well, and is rare.
Stage 2: The technology is expensive, works better, and is more widely available.
Stage 3: The technology is cheap, works well, and is becoming widespread.
Stage 4: The technology is very cheap or even free, is perfected, and found everywhere.

18 The Singularity is Near, by Ray Kurzweil (2005)
http://www.amazon.com/Singularity-Near-Humans-Transcend-Biology/dp/0143037889/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1261913594&sr=1-1
Accessed 5th June 2010.

19 European Journal of ePractice, No.8 - December 2009, epractice.eu:
http://www.epractice.eu/files/European%20Journal%20epractice%20Volume%208_FULL.pdf
Accessed 13th August 2010.

20 The Year 2040: Double the Pollen, Double the Allergy Suffering?, ScienceDaily:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/11/121109083736.htm
Accessed 11th November 2012.

21 World's leading scientists join forces to set priority interventions to save 36 million lives from non-communicable diseases, EurekAlert!:
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2011-04/l-wls040111.php
Accessed 7th June 2011.

22 NEXT WORLD - Intel Claytronics (Programmable Matter), YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJEMfAg5l2w
Accessed 23rd February 2010.

23 Physics of the Impossible, by Michio Kaku:
http://www.amazon.com/Physics-Impossible-Scientific-Exploration-Teleportation/dp/0307278824/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1250029787&sr=1-1
Accessed 26th November 2009.

24 Space elevator, Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator
Accessed 26th November 2009.

25 China's building a high speed rail economy and could achieve a 1 to 1.2 billion person single city effect by 2040, Next Big Future:
http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/09/chinas-building-high-speed-rail-economy.html
Accessed 5th September 2012.

26 China says to support railway investment -Xinhua, Reuters:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/08/china-railways-idUSL4E8H87KK20120608
Accessed 5th September 2012.

27 China Buys 80 Very High Speed Trains (236 mph) for $4 Billion, Tree Hugger:
http://www.treehugger.com/cars/china-buys-80-very-high-speed-trains-236-mph-for-4-billion.html
Accessed 5th September 2012.

28 Can High-Speed Rail Reduce Our Reliance on Air Travel?, Fast Company:
http://www.fastcompany.com/1546201/can-high-speed-rail-reduce-our-reliance-air-travel
Accessed 5th September 2012.

29 See 2020-2035.

30 High Speed Rail reports first ever profit, The China Post:
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/business/2012/06/23/345291/High-Speed.htm
Accessed 5th September 2012.

31 1,000 KPH (620 MPH) Super Train for China, Clean Technica:
http://cleantechnica.com/2010/08/19/1000-kph-620-mph-super-train-for-china/
Accessed 5th September 2012.

32 China's building a high speed rail economy and could achieve a 1 to 1.2 billion person single city effect by 2040, Next Big Future:
http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/09/chinas-building-high-speed-rail-economy.html
Accessed 5th September 2012.

33 Over half of China's people now live in urban areas, The Economist:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/01/daily-chart-6
Accessed 5th September 2012.

34 UN report: World's biggest cities merging into 'mega-regions', The Guardian:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/mar/22/un-cities-mega-regions
Accessed 5th September 2012.

35 How Will China Pay Off Its Debt?, Forbes:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2012/02/26/how-will-china-pay-off-its-debt/
Accessed 5th September 2012.

36 China's predicament, The Economist:
http://www.economist.com/node/13888069?story_id=13888069
Accessed 5th September 2012.

37 Flood risk ranking reveals vulnerable cities, Future Timeline Blog:
http://www.futuretimeline.net/blog/2012/08/22-3.htm
Accessed 5th September 2012.

38 See 2050.

39 The Amtrak Vision for the Northeast Corridor - 2012 Update Report, Amtrak:
http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/453/325/Amtrak-Vision-for-the-Northeast-Corridor.pdf
Accessed 8th July 2012.

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