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Energy & the Environment
C - China E - Extinctions F - Fusion Power N - Nuclear power S - Solar islands
Amazon
rainforest
Antimatter
power plants The exponential rise in energy demands on Earth, and the need for whole new magnitudes of power generation, could be a major driver in their development. By harnessing the energy released in matter/antimatter collisions, the reactions in these power plants could be over 1,000 times more powerful than the fission produced in nuclear power plants and over 300 times more powerful than nuclear fusion energy.* Even further into the future, antimatter could be used in starships, enabling them to reach near-light speed.
Atmospheric
CO2 (current)
Despite this vast programme of industralisation, China is making huge efforts to replant trees. Since 1990 its forests have been growing by 1.2% (or 7000 square miles/18,000 square kilometres) every year - a figure claimed to be the world's highest. The government is also building a "Green Wall of China" to hold back the advancing deserts. In 2011, China's Three Gorges Dam will become fully operational. This will remove some 100 million tonnes of CO2 and over 2 million tonnes of SO2 that would otherwise have been generated by coal-fired power stations. In 2018, the ITER experimental fusion reactor will be switched on. China will have funded part of this. By 2025, much of China will be highly urbanised and densified. Its booming economy will have led to the construction of literally tens of thousands of new skyscrapers all over the country. There will be over 200 cities with more than a million inhabitants, compared to just 35 in the whole of Europe circa 2010. Even remote and isolated places will be seeing development on an unprecedented scale. Large-scale infrastructure such as maglev trains, airports, bridges and tunnels will form an extensive network to all corners of the nation, leaving few areas untouched. China will be well on its way to becoming a developed country. Some of the largest metropolitan areas - such as Hong Kong and Shenzhen - may actually begin to overlap and form "hyper cities", rivalling Tokyo in terms of population and land area. Many of the world's tallest buildings will be found in China, including a number of kilometre-high "supertalls". All of this will have a considerable impact on the price of steel and other materials, leading to cutbacks of many large-scale development projects in Europe, America and elsewhere. The rise of neighbouring India will add to this. The West could have a greatly reduced influence on setting the price of metals. Meanwhile, vast profits will be made by construction and mining firms, leading to many high profile takeovers and acquisitions. At the same time, record numbers of accidents during this time - as a result of so much construction activity - will lead to tighter regulations and improved safety in the industry. Better pay and working conditions for employees will be subsequently introduced. As China booms, its power requirements will soar. The country will have prepared for this, however, by strengthening relations with Central Asian countries and importing more oil and gas from them. China's entry into Central Asia will be partly motivated by the need to reduce its dependency on (a) the Middle East, and (b) the Malacca Strait for shipping oil from the Persian Gulf and Africa; a stretch of water that will be increasingly vulnerable to pirate attacks, and the subject of ongoing political tensions regarding its control. As well as strengthening its oil imports, China will make substantial gains from energy efficiency and conservation programmes, along with greatly increased use of nuclear power. By 2025 its nuclear power generating capacity will be nearly 150 billion kilowatthours (khwh), passing that of Canada and Russia. In the 2030s, this will increase still further, as 4th generation nuclear power plants become available. Demands for environmental protection will also lead to increased solar, wind and hydro-electric power.
By 2033, lung disease will have killed over 80 million people as a result of the long term effects of pollution. China is home to 20 of the 30 most polluted cities in the world. The widespread practice of burning wood or coal at home for cooking and heating will be another contributory factor, with over 65% of the population engaging in this activity. China will have begun switching to cleaner fuels, however, reducing the proportion of deaths from lung disease from around this time onwards.
By the 2060s, millions of Chinese will find themselves forced to resettle, as climate change makes large parts of the country uninhabitable. In 2074, the so-called "Green Wall of China" is expected to be finished. By the early 22nd century, as a result of global warming, Shanghai and other cities will be partially submerged by rising sea levels - unless adequate sea defences can be erected.
African
Elephants - despite efforts to curtail the ivory trade, huge
numbers of elephants continue to be poached throughout Africa. As of
2010 their population stands at 600,000 but is declining by nearly 40,000
each year. By the mid-2020s, only a handful may remain. These could
be saved from outright extinction if zoos and safari parks around the
globe work to maintain viable populations for future rewilding.
Amphibians - based on current trends, nearly half of all amphibians in Europe will be extinct by the 2040s, including many previously common species of frogs, toads, salamanders, newts and caecilians. The main threats are pollution, disease, loss of natural habitat and droughts caused by climate change.
Birds
- due to climate change and scarcity of food, up to 30% of bird species
may be extinct by the 2100s, including the Emperor Penguin, the best-loved
and most recognised symbol of Antarctica.
Black Rhino - there are four subspecies of black rhino. The World Conservation Union (IUCN) announced in 2006 that one of the four subspecies, the West African Black Rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis longipes), had been tentatively declared as extinct. Despite an exhaustive survey across Africa, none could be found, and there are none being held in captivity. The remaining three subspecies are critically endangered.
Borneo
- at current rates of deforestation, Borneo's rainforests will be completely
gone by 2023. Among the many species likely to disappear around this
time is the Orangutan, one of the most intelligent of the great apes.
Butterflies
- at current rates of environmental degradation, more than half of Australia's
400 butterfly species will have died out by the 2040s. Similar declines
in butterfly populations will be experienced in many other countries.
Great
Barrier Reef - one of the world's most beautiful natural wonders,
the Great Barrier Reef will likely have been destroyed by the 2040s.
Rising levels of greenhouse gases will have made the water too acidic
for calcium-based organisms to grow. Most of the colourful fish for
which the reef is famous will also have disappeared.
Koala
Bears - by the late 2030s, koalas may be extinct due to the
combined effects of drought, disease, climate change and loss of natural
habitat. The koala bear is one of Australia's national symbols.
Lizards - as a result of global warming, one in five lizard species could be extinct by 2080, according to one study. Lizards are being forced to spend more and more time resting and regulating their body temperature, leaving them unable to spend sufficient time foraging for food.
Polar
Bears - by the 2040s, nearly 70% of polar bears will have
disappeared, due to the shrinking of Arctic ice caused by global warming.
They will disappear from Greenland entirely by 2080, and from Northern
Canada, leaving only dwindling numbers in the interior Arctic archipelago.
Of those few which remain, ice breaking up earlier in the year will
mean they are forced ashore before they have time to build up sufficient
fat stores. Others will be forced to swim huge distances, leading to
exhaustion and drowning. The effects of global warming will lead to
thinner, stressed bears, decreased reproduction and lower juvenile survival
rates - possibly leading to their extinction by the end of the century.
ITER - previously known as the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor - aims to be the first project to achieve this. Built in southern France at a cost of €20 billion, it will take over a decade to construct and be one of the largest scientific projects ever undertaken, second only to the International Space Station. This joint research experiment is funded by the US, EU, Japan, Russia, China, India and South Korea. To demonstrate net fusion power on a large scale, ITER's reactor must simulate conditions at the heart of the Sun. For this, it will use a magnetic confinement device called a tokamak. This doughnut-shaped vacuum chamber generates a powerful magnetic field and will prevent heat from touching the reactor's walls. Tiny quantities of fuel, injected into and trapped within the chamber, will be heated to 100 million degrees, forming a plasma. At such high temperatures, the light atomic nuclei of hydrogen will become fused together, creating heavier forms of hydrogen such as deuterium and tritium. This will release neutrons and huge amounts of energy. Following its operational activation in 2018, it is hoped that ITER will eventually produce more than 500 megawatts of power, in bursts of 400 seconds or more. This compares with 16 MW for the Joint European Torus (JET) in 1997, the previous world record peak fusion power, which lasted only a few seconds. ITER will require another few decades before its reactor has been sufficiently perfected. To generate the sort of continuous levels of power required for commercial operation, it will need a way of holding the plasma in place at the critical densities and temperatures. This will need refinements in the design of the chamber, such as better superconducting magnets and advances in vacuum systems. However, it could ultimately lead to a revolution in energy. If this project were to succeed, humanity would gain a virtually unlimited supply of clean, green electricity.*
Currently, the largest conventional wind turbines produce only five megawatts of power. However, a single large maglev turbine could generate up to two gigawatts - enough to supply energy to 1.5 million homes - and would require far less land space (0.16%) than hundreds of conventional turbines. This would also reduce construction, maintenance and operational costs substantially. Due to the system of magnets they used, maglev turbines could be effective in wind speeds as low as 1.5 m/s. They would be vastly more efficient than today's wind turbines and could deliver electricity for less than one cent per kilowatt hour.
For these reasons, nuclear power may become a lucrative industry from the 2030s onwards. Solar and wind power will have greater long term potential, however, due to the finite supply of uranium.
These circular platforms would be 5 kilometres in radius. Rather than solar panels, a concentrator would be used to heat water running through pipes; the steam generated would then produce electricity. To be cost-effective, they would be deployed only in locations with over 350 days of sunlight, such as the equator. Since the power stations would be floating, it would be easy to rotate them - keeping them facing the sun all day for maximum efficiency. A small prototype has already been tested in the United Arab Emirates and substantially larger versions may see commercial operation in the future.*
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References 1
How Antimatter Spacecraft Will Work, HowStuffWorks: 2
CO2 Now - CO2 Widgets, CO2Now.org: 3
Steven Cowley: Fusion is energy's future, TED Talks: 4
10 green projects that just might save the world, Tech Radar: 5
Solar Islands, CSEM: |
